FX: Monday Risk Drawn From Aussie Data, China PMIs

Due out at 11.30am AEDT, we see a couple of secondary data points ahead of tomorrow's widely expected RBA December rate hold. Oct. building approvals is forecast to print 0.4%, lower than Sep's 7.6%. As this time series tends to be volatile, AUDUSD traders might be unwilling to break fortnight trend resistance and support. Q3 Gross Company Profit, also out at 11.30am, is expected to show 2% quarterly growth (previous 4.5%) and could be an interesting discussion point for ASX price action.
 

China's growth concerns remain a focal point of discussion for markets. The fact that Saturday's China Manufacturing PMI, which we said demanded attention despite being out-of-hours, printed above expectations - 50.2 vs 49.5 - means the 12.30pm AEDT release of Caixin Manufacturing PMI is likely to be supported. A strong print here reinforces soft landing expectations and helps China sensitive currencies creep higher: AUDUSD, NZDUSD. 


Does Caixin confirm or rebuke China's official Mfg PMI print? Source: Eikon.
 

A solid November month of price gains for Aussie housing, as reported by CoreLogic, firms well for the efficacy of three rate cuts by the RBA since the middle of the year. CoreLogic suggested prices across the country were up 1.7% m/m with Melbourne and Sydney, as usual, benefitting most. A continue rebound in housing prices puts pressure on RBA hawkishness and could be the economic trigger for an improvement in subdued housing consumption, something the RBA pays extremely close attention to.