Shares
 
FAQs

Visit our FAQ page to find the answers to the most commonly asked questions, including how to create an account, explaining ETFs, and providing useful links, forms, and tables.

FAQs
Shares

Start investing in Australian shares the smart way. Discover ThinkTrader today.

Open Shares Account
Learn To Trade
 
Indicators & Chart Patterns

Deepen your knowledge of technical analysis indicators and hone your skills as a trader.

Find your detailed guides here
Trading Glossary

From beginners to experts, all traders need to know a wide range of technical terms. Let us be your guide.

Learn more
Knowledge Base

No matter your experience level, download our free trading guides and develop your skills.

Learn more
Learn To Trade

Trade smarter: boost your skills with our training resources.

Create a live account
Market Analysis
 
Market News

All the latest market news, with regular insights and analysis from our in-house experts

Learn more
Economic Calendar

Make sure you are ahead of every market move with our constantly updated economic calendar.

Learn more
Technical Analysis

Harness past market data to forecast price direction and anticipate market moves.

Learn more
Live Webinars

Boost your investing knowledge with our live, interactive webinars delivered by industry experts.

Register now
Special Reports

Engaging, in-depth macroeconomic analysis and expert educational content from our in-house analysts

Learn more
Market Analysis

Harness the market intelligence you need to build your trading strategies.

Create a live account
Partnership
 
Money Manager

Increase your income and get compensated for your trading knowledge with ThinkInvest, putting you in control.

Learn more
Introducing Broker

ThinkMarkets ensures high levels of client satisfaction with high client retention and conversion rates.

Learn more
White Label

We supply everything you need to create your own brand in the Forex industry.

Learn more
Regional Representatives

Partner with ThinkMarkets today to access full consulting services, promotional materials and your own budgets.

Learn more
Partnership

Plug into the next-gen platforms and the trades your clients want.

 
About ThinkMarkets
 
Sponsorships

Check out our sponsorships with global institutions and athletes, built on shared values of excellence.

Learn more
About Us

Find out more about ThinkMarkets, an established, multi-award winning global broker you can trust.

Learn more
Negative Balance Protection

Trade with peace of mind. Never lose more than what you deposited, no matter what the market conditions.

Learn more
Careers

Discover a range of rewarding career possibilities across the globe

Apply now
ThinkMarkets News

Keep up to date with our latest company news and announcements

Learn more
Trading Infrastructure

When it comes to the speed we execute your trades, no expense is spared. Find out more.

Learn more
Contact Us

Our multilingual support team is here for you 24/7.

Learn more
About ThinkMarkets

Global presence, local expertise - find out what sets us apart.

Create a live account
Log in Create account

NFP Preview: Here's everything you need to know

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 07/05/2021
NFP Preview: Here's everything you need to know NFP Preview: Here's everything you need to know
NFP Preview: Here's everything you need to know Fawad Razaqzada
After a volatile week, brace yourself for more fireworks as we look forward to the release of the April 2021 non-farm payrolls report later today at 13:30 BST.

In recent days, investors have been piling into risk-sensitive assets, including commodities and value stocks and anything that relies on economic growth. Indeed, the Dow surged to a fresh record high as more signs of an improving economy emerged, with applications for unemployment benefits falling last week to a fresh pandemic low. But on Thursday, the tech sector also found renewed strength as yields dipped on the back of dovish remarks from several Fed officials who have moved to alleviate speculation over monetary tightening amid rising inflationary pressures.

dowSource: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com

Heading into the NFP, the key question for stock market participants would be this: will the Nasdaq be able to extend its gains even if today’s jobs data triggers a bond market sell-off and cause yields to rebound? Remember, rising yields have not been a great sign for the over-stretched tech sector in recent past, so make sure you are taking extra care if you are going to be trading the Nasdaq or tech names today.
 
Here is what economists expect:
 
  • Non-farm jobs: 990K to 1 million expected vs. +926K in March. Most analysts expect a large number with the highest estimate being as high as +2.1 million(!) and lowest around +700K. The average estimate is +1035K with a (very high) standard deviation of +203K.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to have dropped to 5.8% y/y in April vs 6.0% in March. The participation rate is seen edging higher to +61.6% vs 61.5% last
  • Average hourly earnings are seen flat month-on-month, with y/y expected to be -0.4% y/y vs +4.2% prior
NFP leading indicators

The key NFP leading indicators we monitor have been mixed, which may suggest the above expectations will not be met. However, with many states re-opening in April and companies eager to make profit ahead of the summer months, I think we may get a number close to consensus this time.
 
  • ADP +742K vs +850K expected and 565K last (negative)
  • ISM services employment 58.8 vs 57.2 prior (positive)
  • ISM manufacturing employment 55.1 vs 59.6 prior (negative)
  • Initial jobless claims survey week 566K vs 765K in March (positive)
  • Challenger Job Cuts 22.9K vs 30K prior (positive)
 
Likely market reaction and NFP trade ideas
 
  • Value stocks: With expectations running quite high, there is scope for disappointment if they are not met. However, a small miss shouldn’t derail the rally as it would keep the goldilocks scenario intact. And if expectations are met or surpassed then growth stocks should be able to rally sharply.
  • Growth stocks: May be able to extend their gains even if today’s jobs beats so long as wage inflation doesn’t show unexpected strength to raise inflation concerns. However, if the data triggers a bond market sell-off and cause yields to rebound, then we may see renewed pressure on the tech sector. Remember, rising yields have not been a great sign for the over-stretched tech sector in recent past.
  • Dollar: The greenback may pop higher initially on the back of a stronger number. But with investors so focused on the growth story, a strong NFP print and a flattish average earnings number will probably send commodity dollars higher (remember that the Canadian employment data – expected at -162K – will also be released at the same time, if you are trading the USD/CAD). A strong NFP print and an unexpected jump in wages may however cause a more positive reaction for the greenback – especially against currencies where inflation is not a concern, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.  
As well as the headline NFP print and wages, it is also worth watching participation closely. The Fed has indicated that it wants to see Americans who are in working age to be encouraged to seek employment and back into the workforce before it thinks about tightening its belt.
 
Don’t forget to join us for the NFP preview webinar, starting at 11:30 London time. HERE is the link to register.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Back to top