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Crude oil: Saudi, UAE reportedly reach compromise over oil output

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 14/07/2021
Crude oil: Saudi, UAE reportedly reach compromise over oil output Crude oil: Saudi, UAE reportedly reach compromise over oil output
Crude oil: Saudi, UAE reportedly reach compromise over oil output Fawad Razaqzada
Crude oil prices initially fell before bouncing off their lows on reports that Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have reached a compromise over oil production deal.

According to reports, the UAE will now have a higher oil production baseline at 3.65 million barrels per day for future oil deals, a sharp rise from its current 3.2 million bpd. The compromise means the OPEC+ deal may well be extended until end of 2022 as the group wanted. Under those proposals, the OPEC+ output will rise by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August. An OPEC+ meeting should be arranged soon.

The fact that oil prices rose after initially falling to the above news is a reflection of reduced uncertainty. With the agreement likely to be extended until end of 2022, supply will return slowly to the market and reduce the risks of supply shocks. The key risk now is if demand fails to grow as expected, which is directly linked to the virus situation and the potential for further lockdowns. With the delta variant rising sharply across many regions of the world, this could potentially see the return of some restrictions on travel.

Meanwhile, rising oil prices has stoked inflation worries in the US, while several emerging market economies are already struggling. Further rises in oil prices will only exacerbate inflationary concerns, raising the pressure on the OPEC to release more oil back to the market.

So, while there is a risk we may see oil prices rise further in the short-term outlook due to supply shortages, the economic situation in many parts of the world, especially oil consumer nations like India, demand that prices should be lower. With the OPEC+ set to release more oil back to the market every month, this should reduce concerns over a supply shock. There is also the potential for US shale producers to start increasing their own supplies as the global recovery takes shape. All told, the risks are skewed to the downside for oil prices.

BrentSource: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
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Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
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Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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