WEEK AHEAD: Turkey And Sweet Potatoes

Markets are likely to gauge lower liquidity conditions through the week as a result of Thursday's US Thanksgiving holiday. The potential for exacerbated moves then when you mix that in with lingering US-China trade risk, political developments and some key data releases, is therefore, something we expect given less is needed to do more. 
 

Key calendar highlights

AEDT	Event	Instrument	Impact	Comment
Mon 8pm 25/11	Germany IFO Bus. Climate Survey	EUR	Med	Est. 95; prior 94.6. Look to see how it builds on Friday's PMIs.
Tue 8.45am 26/11	NZ Retail Sales Q3	NZD	Med	Est. 0.5%; prior 0.2%. Set to improve in line with RBNZ comments.
Tue 8.05pm 26/11	RBA Gov. Lowe speech	AUD	High	The title of his talk is about unconventional monetary policy tools. Endorsement here drives short AUD.
Wed 2am 27/11	US Nov. CB Consumer Confidence	USD	Med	Est. 127; prior 125.9. Should help drive USD outperformance.
Wed 9am 27/11	RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks	NZD	Low	Due to speak on the RBNZ Financial Stability Report. With no meeting till Feb, see this as low risk.
Wed 11.30am 27/11	AUS Construction Work Done q/q	AUD	Med	Est -1%; prior -3.8%. More clues about where Aussie housing is at.
Thu 11am 28/11	NZ Oct. Business Confidence	NZD	Low	Prior -42.4. Focus will be on whether this continues trend of improvement.
Thu 11.30am 28/11	AUS Q3 Capex	AUD	Med	Est. -0.1%; prior -0.5%. AUD at risk here.
Sat 12.30am 30/11	CAD Sep. GDP m/m	CAD	High	Est. 0.1%; prior 0.1%. Likely to show resilience of domestic economy.
Sat 12pm 30/11	China Mfg PMI	CNH	High	Est. 49.5; prior 49.3. Expect volatility on a surprise.

In our ASIA MORNING: Lacking Conviction, we raised the case that Bitcoin BTC was near a key support level and could push lower towards multi-month trend support. That thesis is playing out faster than we thought with BTC heavily sold in the last few days. Should the 50d-MA cross down over the 200d-MA and price action meaningfully break May 2019 lows, there could be a further case to be made for BTC to continue falling into US$5,000. However, a bounce back into the downward trend channel and 200d-MA also has legs.