Alejandro Zambran
Chief Market Strategist at ThinkMarkets.
Joe Neighbour
Chief Investment Officer at Acuity Trading.
How do the US presidential elections affect the markets?
The US presidential elections have global implications that affect the financial markets. Traders often consider this period as a time of volatility and opportunity.
Stock indices
Stock market indices are a quick way to trade around the U.S. presidential election. While the typical annual return for the S&P 500 is 10%, it slightly dips to 9.1% during election years due to heightened uncertainty. From 1950 to November 2023, return in election years has swung between -40% and +30%. However, the S&P 500's typical return isn't influenced by who’s in power; the return is pretty much the same independently of whether a Democrat or Republican is leading the country. Even better for markets is a divided Congress, which tends to deliver the best annual returns of 13.6%. This could be because markets prefer stability and fewer significant changes. With this information, savvy traders might use a panic sell-off and technical analysis to buy dips, given that everything else remains unchanged.
Market impact of proposed policies: Trump vs. Harris
S&P 500
Nasdaq 100
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Tune in to market expert Alejandro Zambrano as he explains the potential market impacts of the upcoming US elections.
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2024 US presidential elections timeline
Jan 9
Deadline for major parties to submit a list of candidates to the Secretary of State in Washington
Jan 15
Republican presidential caucus in Iowa
Feb 6
Nevada Democratic primary
Feb 24
Republican South Carolina primary
Mar 8
Maine Democratic caucuses
Mar 11
Tennessee Democratic primary
Mar 13
Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri Republican primaries
Mar 16
Arizona, Florida Republican primaries
Apr 6
Alaska, Hawaii, and North Dakota Democratic primaries
Apr 18-20
Wyoming Republican primary
Apr 28
Puerto Rico Democratic primary
May 10
Trial for United States v. Donald Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira set to begin
May 21
Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon
May 24-26
Libertarian National Convention scheduled to be held in Washington, D.C.
Jul 18-22
Republican National Convention, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sep 10
Nonpresidential primaries ABC presidential debate
Oct 1
CBS Vice Presidential Debate
Jan 10
Fifth Republican presidential primary debate
Feb 3
South Carolina Democratic primary
Feb 8
Nevada Republican caucus
Mar 5
Super Tuesday
Mar 10
Louisiana primaries (Democrats and Republicans)
Mar 12
Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri Democratic primaries
Mar 15
Arizona, Florida Democratic primaries
Apr 2
Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin Democratic and Republican primaries
Apr 13
Wyoming Democratic caucuses
Apr 23
Pennsylvania Democratic and Republican primaries
May 7
Indiana Democratic and Republican primaries
May 14
Democratic primaries in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia
May 23
Idaho Democratic caucuses
Jun 4
Last primaries and caucuse
Aug 20-25
Democratic National Convention, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sep 3
Massachusetts nonpresidential primary
Nov 5
General election