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Week Ahead Market Preview: 11th of April 2022

Victor Golovtchenko Victor Golovtchenko 12/04/2022
Week Ahead Market Preview: 11th of April 2022 Week Ahead Market Preview: 11th of April 2022
Week Ahead Market Preview: 11th of April 2022 Victor Golovtchenko
Monetary policy tightening has taken center stage last week as markets sold off and the US dollar rallied in the aftermath of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. In the meantime, a lockdown in the second largest city in China, Shanghai, is worrying markets about a resurgence of Covid-19. Any prospect for another full lockdown in the second largest economy in the world could roil financial markets over the coming days.

The French election which was a significant risk for the euro has proven to be a non-event with Macron handily winning the first round and getting two endorsements from candidates which didn’t qualify for the second round. Macron’s competition, far-right Marine Le Pen, got through to the second round, but her prospects are dim, as third-placed Jean-Luc Melanchon singled her out as a non-starter for the presidency and encouraged his voters not to vote for her.

The euro staged a relief rally in the early Asian session and teetered around 1.09 for the most of the European session. European stocks also liked the news that Macron is holding his ground, but selling of US equities prevented a substantive rally. In the meantime Russia-Ukraine war-related headlines have been insignificant as tensions in the Donbass region rose over the weekend, while Boris Johnson visited Kiev.

Economic data highlights


Monday 4th April

·         UK GDP


Tuesday 5th of April

·         UK Unemployment
·         EU CPI and German ZEW Sentiment
·         US CPI


Wednesday 6th of April

·         New Zealand Interest Rate
·         UK CPI & PPI
·         US PPI


Thursday 7th of April

·         Australia Employment Report
·         ECB Interest Rate Decision
·         US Retail Sales


Friday 8th of April

·         Good Friday in AU, EU, UK
·         France & Italy CPI
·         US Industrial Production


Monday morning saw the markets open higher after the French election risk went out of the way. That said, the theme could get revisited in two weeks time as the second round is to be held on the 24th of April. In the meantime, the Chinese lockdown in Shanghai is starting to affect a multitude of markets, namely commodities and stocks.


Oil hits multi-week low

After the coordinated action on part of the US and the International Energy Agency last week, oil prices continued to drift lower helped by a slowdown in demand from China, and presumed auctions of Russian oil, which is trading at a heavy discount when compared to spot markets. After hitting the lowest level since the 25th of February oil prices have rebounded to consolidate around 95 as of writing.

The ongoing Covid-19 scare in China could be the key factor behind oil price moves in the coming weeks, as the war between Russia and Ukraine slows down, before an expected attack by Russia in the Donbass region in the coming weeks.


Inflation Figures to Dominate Macro

Inflation numbers from Europe, the UK, and the US are likely to be the main figures to affect financial markets over the coming days. Higher prices across the board are expected, further cementing the stage for accelerated rate hikes in the coming quarters. The difference between major economies in unlikely to be significant, but could be the key factor that guides the currency market in the coming week.

The US dollar has been bid across the board over recent sessions as expectations about multiple 50 basis point hikes crept into the markets. In tandem with the relatively fast pace of asset sales, the US dollar got supported strongly after Fed comments and minutes last week.

The future US dollar outlook will hinge on more inflation data, sentiment, and the comparative stance from other major central banks. This week the ECB and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be the latest to unveil their policy course.


 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

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Lesego Mthombothi
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Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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