Please note ThinkMarkets does not provide CFD services to residents of the US.

Please note ThinkMarkets does not provide CFD services to residents of the US.

Learn To Trade
 
Indicators & Chart Patterns

Deepen your knowledge of technical analysis indicators and hone your skills as a trader.

Find your detailed guides here
Trading Glossary

From beginners to experts, all traders need to know a wide range of technical terms. Let us be your guide.

Learn more
Knowledge Base

No matter your experience level, download our free trading guides and develop your skills.

Learn more
Learn To Trade

Trade smarter: boost your skills with our training resources.

Create a live account
Market Analysis
 
Market News

All the latest market news, with regular insights and analysis from our in-house experts

Learn more
Economic Calendar

Make sure you are ahead of every market move with our constantly updated economic calendar.

Learn more
Technical Analysis

Harness past market data to forecast price direction and anticipate market moves.

Learn more
Live Webinars

Boost your knowledge with our live, interactive webinars delivered by industry experts.

Register now
Special Reports

Engaging, in-depth macroeconomic analysis and expert educational content from our in-house analysts

Learn more
Market Analysis

Harness the market intelligence you need to build your trading strategies.

Create a live account
Partnership
 
Introducing Broker

ThinkMarkets ensures high levels of client satisfaction with high client retention and conversion rates.

Learn more
Proprietary Trading

Partner with us to build your own prop trading business. Enquire with our account managers today.

Learn more
White Label

We supply everything you need to create your own brand in the Forex industry.

Learn more
Regional Representatives

Partner with ThinkMarkets today to access full consulting services, promotional materials and your own budgets.

Learn more
Refer a friend

Receive $50 for you and your friend when you convert them into an active trader of ThinkMarkets.

Learn more
Partnership

Plug into the next-gen platforms and the trades your clients want.

Partner Portal
About ThinkMarkets
 
Sponsorships

Check out our sponsorships with global institutions and athletes, built on shared values of excellence.

Learn more
About Us

Find out more about ThinkMarkets, an established, multi-award winning global broker you can trust.

Learn more
Careers

Discover a range of rewarding career possibilities across the globe

Apply now
ThinkMarkets News

Keep up to date with our latest company news and announcements

Learn more
Trading Infrastructure

When it comes to the speed we execute your trades, no expense is spared. Find out more.

Learn more
Contact Us

Our multilingual support team is here for you 24/7.

Learn more
About ThinkMarkets

Global presence, local expertise - find out what sets us apart.

Create a live account
Log in Create account

Weekly outlook: What is in store for the markets and traders?

Alejandro Zambrano Alejandro Zambrano 20/05/2024
Weekly outlook: What is in store for the markets and traders?  Weekly outlook: What is in store for the markets and traders?
Weekly outlook: What is in store for the markets and traders? Alejandro Zambrano

US Economic Highlights
 

  • The headline report for the week was the US inflation figures, with core inflation cooling from an annual rate of 3.8% to 3.6%, below the expected 3.7%. Headline inflation also decreased slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%. Although these figures are still high, the markets responded positively.
  • However, retail sales were disappointing, showing no growth month-over-month compared to the expected 0.3% increase and a decline from the previous month's 0.6% rise. On the employment front, jobless claims dropped slightly, returning to their previous range and alleviating concerns about the labour market after a sharp increase the prior week. Overall, the data has led people to anticipate a possible earlier Fed rate cut.
  • Despite this, Fed Chair Mr. Powell emphasized the need for patience and allowing the restrictive policy to take effect, suggesting that interest rates will remain higher for longer.
 

International Economic Developments:
 

  • In Australia, the labour market slightly deteriorated, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% against the expected 3.9%. Nonetheless, the Australian dollar remained strong against the US dollar as the week ended.
  • In the UK, the labour market showed resilience. Wage growth surged to an annual rate of 5.7%, above the anticipated 5.3%, offering a significant inflation-adjusted salary increase. However, the unemployment rate edged up from 4.2% to 4.3%. This report was bullish and supports a bullish outlook for GBPUSD.
  • China also reported positive news, with industrial production jumping from 4.5% to 6.7% annually in April.

 

Market Outlook:
 

Looking at the charts, they point towards a weaker dollar, higher stock indices, and rising cryptocurrencies. However, given last week's positive developments, we might see some corrections at the start of this week. Monday begins quietly with no significant data releases or speeches, and public holidays in France, Germany, and Canada.

 

Upcoming Key Data Releases:
 

  • On Tuesday, traders will focus on the Canadian Consumer Price Index for trading ideas and potential volatility.
  • Wednesday will be notable for the RBNZ's decision, expected to hold interest rates steady, with market participants keen on the details for trading cues.
  • The UK Consumer Price Index on Wednesday morning will also be crucial, potentially influencing the Bank of England's stance on rate adjustments. At the latest BOE meeting, two out of nine members voted for a rate cut, which was seen as dovish.
  • Thursday will feature flash manufacturing and services data from the Eurozone, UK, and the US, providing insights into the state of these economies.
  • The week concludes with US durable goods orders on Friday.

 

EUR/USD
 

The EUR/USD triggered the wedge pattern discussed last week, driven by softer than expected US economic data. The target of this pattern is $1.11. While wedge patterns are generally considered unreliable, the trend will remain bullish as long as it stays above $1.0767. Corrections toward the breakout point around $1.0815 have been met by buyers, and this buying support zone is likely to continue to hold as long as the price remains above $1.0767. The next resistance levels are $1.0896, $1.0940, and $1.0965.
 

 

AUD/USD
 

The AUD vs. the USD has triggered the inverse head and shoulders pattern discussed last week. This upward movement was also fuelled by soft US economic data. The pattern will stay bullish as long as the price remains above $0.6621, with the next resistance levels at $0.6733, $0.68, and $0.6873.
 

AUDUSD_2024-05-17_16-11-24.png

 

Brent crude oil (BRENT)
 

Brent crude oil prices remain bearish below the $84.30 level mentioned last week. However, the market is trying to establish a long-term low and appears poised to trade higher. A break above $84.30 would confirm that a major low is in place, potentially driving prices towards $86.00 and possibly $88.00 in the upcoming weeks. Still, it is premature to take such bias given that the trend remains bearish below $84.30.
 

 

XAUUSD
 

Gold prices continue to gain as projected in recent weeks and months. The trend will remain bullish as long as the price trades above $2,331.

 

 

Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)
 

The Nasdaq 100 has reached not only our first resistance levels but also a fresh all-time high. Despite needing a correction, traders are hesitant to offload positions given the robust US economy, accelerating Chinese economy, and the anticipated Fed rate cuts. The short-term trend remains bullish above $18,083.
 


 

Ready to trade this week? Log in now! 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Related articles:

Weekly outlook: USD/JPY bulls could send the ...

By Alejandro Zambrano

17/06/2024

TSMC vs. Samsung: the battle for semiconducto...

By ThinkMarkets

17/06/2024

Weekly outlook: Will US CPI and FOMC spur or ...

By Alejandro Zambrano

10/06/2024

Federal reserve meeting preview: Steady rates...

By Alejandro Zambrano

10/06/2024

Unpredictable Markets: When Better-Than-Expec...

By Alejandro Zambrano

05/06/2024

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Back to top