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Week Ahead Preview – 22nd of August

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 22/08/2022
Week Ahead Preview – 22nd of August Week Ahead Preview – 22nd of August
Week Ahead Preview – 22nd of August Mahmoud Alkudsi
Eyes will be focused on a set of key economic data releases this week including GDP and inflation figures for major economies.
Contradictive opinions among the US Fed members opened a wide window for markets speculating. While all members agree on the necessity of hiking rates they disagree on the hike’s size, as some members call for a 75bp rise in September while others consider a lower hike.

Most US indices and main commodities retreated last week with losses accelerating into the start of this week on the back of the US Dollar surge. The greenback looks the best choice for investors currently as the Fed is expected to hike rates to the 3.00%- 3.25% range while other central banks like ECB, and BOJ are far from even 1.5%.

The Oil price closed in the red last week on expectations of lower demand due to increased fears of a global recession on one hand, and higher supply from a possible return of the Iranian oil to the market on the other.

Economic data highlights

Monday 22 of August
  • CAD- New Housing Price Index (JUL)  
  • USD- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (JUL)
Tuesday 23 of August
  • AUD- Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (AUG)
  • EUR- Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (AUG)
  • GBP- Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (AUG)
  • USD- Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (AUG)
  • EUR- Consumer Confidence Flash (AUG)
  • USD- New Home Sales MoM (JUL)
Wednesday 24 of August
  • USD- Durable Goods Orders MoM (JUL)
Thursday 25 of August
  • NZD- Retail Sales (Q2) (JUL)
  • EUR- GDP Growth Rate (Germany- Q2)
  • EUR- IFO Business Climate (Germany- AUG)
  • USD- GDP Growth Rate (Q2)
Friday 26 of August
  • EUR- GfK Consumer Confidence (Germany-SEP)
  • USD- PCE Price Index
  • USD- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (AUG)
  • FED Chairman Speech in Jackson Hole
 
USD- Wait for More Clarity
 
While investors are still split on whether the Fed will deliver a 50 or 75bp rate hike, eyes will be on the chairman’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Powell is likely to stress the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation level’s down to the 2% target and could hint at a possible slowing down in the pace of rate hiking.

The FOMC July meeting minutes favors a 50bp rate hike in September nonetheless, it is preferable to wait for the August NFP and CPI reports before predicting the Fed’s upcoming step, as any high than expected read in both reports increases the odds to 75 bp.

Traders will be waiting for the second read of the US GDP (Q2) knowing that the first read was at -0.9%. Markets will receive also an inflation update for the month of July via the US PCE Price index the Fed’s preferable metric. It is noteworthy to mention that the US household purchase power increased in July thanks to the fall in Gasoline prices.

 
EUR – Not very Optimistic  

On Tuesday, investors will get a sense of where major economies are headed in August. The eurozone manufacturing PMI read will be closely monitored as the index fell below 50 last month showing a contraction in economic activity. We may see an even worse print on the back of the energy crisis in Europe, adding to that the drought in the continent that increases the transportation costs.
 
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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