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Week Ahead Preview – 29nd of August

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 29/08/2022
Week Ahead Preview – 29nd of August Week Ahead Preview – 29nd of August
Week Ahead Preview – 29nd of August Mahmoud Alkudsi
Markets await important data releases this week, that may provide more clarity about major central banks’ rates decisions. Investors will also listen to Fed members’ speeches for clarity about their evaluation of the US economy, the level at which the Fed may slow down its pace in rate hiking, and whether they could go for 50pb or 75bp in September’s meeting.

Last week, the Fed chair said that the US central bank was likely to keep a restrictive policy for some time and stated clearly that it would be wrong to loosen policy prematurely. Powell blamed current inflation levels on high demand and low supply then hinted at an “unusually large” rate hike in September however, he did not mention any percentage as it would depend on the upcoming data (NFP and inflation reports of August).

The market’s risk appetite deteriorated on Friday on the Fed’s chair’s remarks leading the US major indices to close in the red while the US dollar rallied, and the gold price lost nearly 0.5% of its value.  

Economic data highlights

Monday 29 of August
  • AUD - Retail Sales (JUL)
  • JPY - Coincident Index Final (JUN)
  • USD- Fed Brainard Speech
Tuesday 30 of August
  • JPY- Unemployment Rate (JUL)
  • EUR- Consumer Confidence Final (AUG)
  • EUR- Inflation Rate (Germany- AUG)
  • USD- Consumer Confidence (AUG)
  • USD- Fed Barkin and Williams Speeches
 
Wednesday 31 of August
  • JPY-Industrial Production (JUL)
  • JPY- Retail Sales (JUL)
  • CNY- Manufacturing PMI (AUG)
  • JPY- Consumer Confidence (AUG)
  • EUR- Unemployment Rate (Germany- AUG)
  • EUR- Inflation Rate Flash (AUG)
  • USD- Fed Mester Speech
  • CAD- GDP Growth Rate (Q2)
Thursday 1st of September
  • USD- Fed Bostic Speech
  • AUD- Global Manufacturing PMI Final (AUG)
  • CHF- Inflation Rate (AUG)
  • EUR- Unemployment Rate (JUL)
  • EUR- Global Manufacturing PMI Final (AUG)
  • CAD- Global Manufacturing PMI (AUG)
  • USD- ISM Manufacturing PMI (AUG)
Friday 2nd of September
  • USD- Non-Farm Payrolls (AUG)
  • USD- Unemployment Rate (AUG)
  • USD- Factory Orders MoM (JUL)
 
The Eurozone Data

Markets expect the eurozone’s inflation (AUG) and unemployment (JUL) prints this week. This data will be key in helping investors to predict the ECB’s next step in the September meeting.

It is worth mentioning that the energy crisis in Europe continues to affect the European economy negatively sending the CPI number even higher therefore, we could see the eurozone’s inflation figure rise from 7.9% in July to 8% while the unemployment number may stabilize at 6.6% increasing the odds of seeing the ECB hiking 50bp in the September meeting.
 
Non-Farm Payrolls 

The US economy has added nearly 3.2 million jobs this year with over half-million in July despite having been in recession. It is unlikely to see July’s print again given vacancies have started to decrease.  

That said, investors will keep an eye on this report to see if the actual number comes in line with expectations of 285k. Therefore, should the number come in line or higher than expected this will increase the likelihood of hiking 75bp rather than 50bp in the upcoming Fed meeting in September.
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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