*OPEC+ nations to decide cutting program
*US data to back USD performance
*Don't expect many presents from scheduled CB meetings
A crude decision
OPEC countries and allies collectively known as OPEC+ are due to come together on Dec 5
and Dec 6
to decide how much oil supply should be curbed beyond March 31; the expiry date of OPEC's current agreement. A failure to reach an agreement that coordinates deeper cuts to current output likely puts the oil market in oversupply
during 1H 2020, and consequently, applies bearish pressure to Brent Crude
. However, we recently mentioned that Saudi Arabia are heavily incentivised to see oil go higher ahead of its Saudi Aramco IPO
, and will thereby, do whatever is necessary to push through new commitments to limit output. Having said that though, Russian quotas remain a major sticking point with Minister Novak adamant that condensates should be excluded and noting that he would prefer to meet in April. Overall, expect Brent Crude
price action to be very reactive as headlines tilt expectations for more or less cuts.
US data deluge to support USD longs
Data focus will be on the US economy this week with several key US data points released throughout expecting improvements on prior figures. ISM Mfg PMI is due Tue 2am AEDT
; ISM Non-mfg PMI is due Thu 2am AEDT
; and importantly, Non-farm Payrolls drops Sat 12.30am AEDT
. Solid prints here and we think it strongly reaffirms the Fed's pause, and relative outperformance of US carry and growth verse G10 majors. USD
net long positioning against EUR
in particular has grown in the past week among our clients.
In the past 6 months, US Dollar Index
(purple, LHS) has tracked beat expectations across US data releases, as captured by Citi's US Economic Surprise Index (orange, RHS). Source: Eikon.
No cuts by RBA and BoC
In central bank risk this week, the RBA meet for their final meeting of 2019 on Tuesday, 2.30pm AEDT while BoC convene later onwards during the early hours of Thursday at 2am AEDT. We expect no changes to both official cash rates in line with market pricing. Implied pricing for the RBA suggests a less than 10% chance that the RBA cut. Even slimmer, implied pricing for the BoC displays a negligible 2% likelihood. With little room to surprise in either decision, focus will be swayed to risk premia in the Aussie and Canadian yield curve and any adjustments that might come about as a result of more dovish language. We think relative CB expectations favour long USDCAD and short AUDUSD in the near-term.