Learn To Trade
 
Indicators & Chart Patterns

Deepen your knowledge of technical analysis indicators and hone your skills as a trader.

Find your detailed guides here
Trading Glossary

From beginners to experts, all traders need to know a wide range of technical terms. Let us be your guide.

Learn More
Knowledge Base

No matter your experience level, download our free trading guides and develop your skills.

Learn More
Learn To Trade

Trade smarter: boost your skills with our training resources.

Create a live account
Market Analysis
 
Market News

All the latest market news, with regular insights and analysis from our in-house experts

Learn More
Economic Calendar

Make sure you are ahead of every market move with our constantly updated economic calendar.

Learn More
Technical Analysis

Harness past market data to forecast price direction and anticipate market moves.

Learn More
Live Webinars

Boost your knowledge with our live, interactive webinars delivered by industry experts.

Register now
Special Reports

Engaging, in-depth macroeconomic analysis and expert educational content from our in-house analysts

Learn More
Market Analysis

Harness the market intelligence you need to build your trading strategies.

Create a live account
Partnership
 
Affiliate Programme

Grow your business and get rewarded. Find out more about our Affiliate Programme today.

Learn More
Money Manager

Increase your income and get compensated for your trading knowledge with ThinkInvest, putting you in control.

Learn More
API Trading

Create your own trading platform or data tools with our cutting-edge APIs.

Learn More
Introducing Broker

ThinkMarkets ensures high levels of client satisfaction with high client retention and conversion rates.

Learn More
White Label

We supply everything you need to create your own brand in the Forex industry.

Learn More
Regional Representatives

Partner with ThinkMarkets today to access full consulting services, promotional materials and your own budgets.

Learn More
Partnership

Plug into the next-gen platforms and the trades your clients want.

Create a live account
About ThinkMarkets
 
About Us

Find out more about ThinkMarkets, an established, multi-award winning global broker you can trust.

Learn More
Careers

Discover a range of rewarding career possibilities across the globe

Apply now
Security of Funds

Security of your funds is our number one priority. Find out more about our insurance policy with Lloyd's of London.

Learn More
Trading Infrastructure

When it comes to the speed we execute your trades, no expense is spared. Find out more.

Learn More
ThinkMarkets News

Keep up to date with our latest company news and announcements.

Learn More
Contact Us

Our multilingual support team is here for you 24/7.

Learn More
About ThinkMarkets

Global presence, local expertise - find out what sets us apart.

Create a live account
Create account

Dollar in focus as traders eye key US data

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 03/06/2021
Dollar in focus as traders eye key US data Dollar in focus as traders eye key US data
Dollar in focus as traders eye key US data Fawad Razaqzada
As I mentioned yesterday, the dollar has been all over the place over the past few days. It has staged several breakout attempts, but so far those attempts have been futile. Investors continue to fade the rallies in the dollar in favour of other foreign currencies, amid ongoing reflation trade as Covid cases continue to drop around the world and more economies re-open. But this week hasn’t exactly been a one-way trade for the dollar, with the choppy ride being typical price action during an NFP week. Traders are not willing or comfortable to commit to one particular direction and are quick to take profit. Overall, though, the underlying trend remains the same: bullish for foreign currencies and bearish the US dollar. This trend could extend further in the days ahead, for as long the upcoming US data do not raise inflation concerns again.  In another blow to the US dollar, Russia's $186 Billion Sovereign Wealth Fund has decided to dump all its dollar assets. This comes after the US blamed Russia for a series of cyberattacks.

US data dump

We have a few potentially market-moving data and central bank speeches to look forward to in these last two days of the week – starting with the ADP US employment report at 13:15 BST. The weekly jobless claims will be published at 13:30 and then the ISM services PMI is to follow at 15:00. In addition to the data, we have a few central bank speeches, including from the BoE Governor Baily and FOMC’s Bostic and Quarles.

NFP and central bank speeches coming up on Friday

On Friday, more central bank speeches will follow, including from ECB President Lagarde and RBNZ Governor Orr at the Green Swan 2021 Global Virtual Conference. Then, it is all about the key monthly employment reports from both North American nations, in particular the US. The focus will be on jobs growth as well as wage inflation as speculation continues over the timing of the Fed’s bond purchases reduction. US nonfarm jobs are expected to have risen by a solid 645K after the previous month’s disappointing 266K gain when nearly 1 million was expected.

Could we see a new 2021 low for the dollar?

DXYSource: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com

From a technical point of view, the dollar index continues to come under pressure from the 21-day exponential moving average, which is indicative of a strong downtrend. The recent lower highs have helped to create a bearish trend line. This means that if in the event the dollar breaks the trend line, we may see a sharp short-squeeze rally as the sellers’ stops are triggered. But given that we are very close to this year’s earlier low at 89.21, I think there is a greater chance for a break down here than a rally. What happens after the index breaks its lows (if it does) that remains to be seen. We could see a quick rejection, which would be a technically bullish sign. Or if there is acceptance below the 89.21 level, then we could see further long-side liquidation in the days to come, leading to a sharp sell-off for the dollar. Either way, buckle up because we are on the verge of a big move, and this week’s NFP data could be the trigger.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Related articles:

Stocks slump in mini taper tantrum

By Fawad Razaqzada

18/06/2021

GBP/USD: Dovish Fed could pave way for $1.45

By Fawad Razaqzada

16/06/2021

Imbalance between Fed policy and US economy g...

By Fawad Razaqzada

15/06/2021

Markets set to end week on a cheerful note

By Fawad Razaqzada

11/06/2021

Gold shines on ECB and as US CPI shrugged off

By Fawad Razaqzada

10/06/2021

Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
×
Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
×
Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
×
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

Feel confident?

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Back to top