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OPEC + decision looming

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 01/04/2021
OPEC + decision looming OPEC + decision looming
OPEC + decision looming Fawad Razaqzada
The OPEC+ are debating the options they have at their disposal for oil policies from May and beyond. Thanks to the fresh round of virus infections across some important regions of the world and the extension of lockdowns in part of Europe, it looks like the only options are a rollover of existing cuts in May and followed by a gradual increase in production thereafter. This outcome is likely to have been priced in. However, there could be surprises, such a potential production hike. If they do hike production in May, however small it might be, this will come as a surprise to the markets and oil prices should drop.

So, whichever way you look at it, the risks are skewed to the downside, as a rollover is expected. Thus, any potential oil price gains are likely to be limited. Still, let’s see if the OPEC+ will deliver a surprise later on in the day.

Ahead of the OPEC+ decision, crude oil prices rebounded this morning after falling in the previous two sessions. However, with prices already forming a series of lower highs and a couple of lower lows since topping out in early March, the short-term path of least resistance is to the downside and will remain that way unless Brent oil breaks its bear trend on a daily closing basis:

brent
Source: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com

Short-term support is seen around $62.40. A decisive move below this level could trigger fresh selling in the days to come, possibly taking us back down to the $60 handle or even lower. Meanwhile the next resistance above $64.50 is seen around the $66.80 to $67.00 area.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
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Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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