*ASX points up at open on overnight price action
*RBA Deputy Gov Debelle and BoC Poloz get air time
*US Retail Sales tonight to shape end of week finish
*Germany avoids technical recession
Aussie Stocks up despite USDJPY shakiness
There were some jitters from USDJPY
price action in early NY with the risk-on/risk-off proxy trading down to 108.3 from 108.7 levels. The move however was mostly ignored by S&P 500 Futures
which manages to sustain itself near all-time highs. Stronger earnings from Walmart (helped offset the initial drag on the index caused by a weak Cisco outlook.
The reaction from ASX Dec Futures
fared similarly with the Aussie index bid 21pts through the night. This should help ASX Cash
point up at the open having been propped up yesterday by surges in the stock price of Afterpay (APT.AX
) and Nearmap (NEA.AX
) following positive news releases. We note ongoing concerns and developments around US-China trade uncertainty
, Trump impeachment proceedings, HK and broad political unrest, global growth and central bank policy as catalysts for driving negative sentiment.
RBA and BoC remarks secondary but still interesting
With little data out in Asia, we monitor a couple of speeches in the Aussie afternoon with RBA Deputy Gov Debelle set to deliver some housing remarks at a FINSIA event and BoC Gov Poloz due to speak at the Fed Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The former is due 12.30pm
with the latter coming out around 1.45pm AEDT
positioning wise still remains the highest conviction long bet among G10 currencies
given relative BoC hawkishness. We see longer-term bets best expressed in short EURCAD
or long CADJPY
Main data risk ahead in US Retail Sales
The Fed continue to drive home the point that US consumers are on stable footing and confidence is up. US Core Retail Sales m/m due for release at 12.30am AEDT tonight should stress-test that assumption. Forecasts are currently indicating a positive print. The m/m print polled 0.2%, an improvement on the prior month's -0.3%. Excluding Autos m/m, consensus comes in at 0.4%, up on the previous -0.1%. A beat here could be the catalyst for a push higher in equities notwithstanding developments in the ongoing concerns we mentioned above.
Germany avoids a technical recession
but it's nothing to celebrate. GDP q/q printed 0.1% beating out expectations of -0.1%. EURUSD
found a 20pip bid on the result and has since sustained above 1.1 levels.