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Week Ahead: November 15, 2021

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 15/11/2021
Week Ahead: November 15, 2021 Week Ahead: November 15, 2021
Week Ahead: November 15, 2021 Fawad Razaqzada

 

  • Retail sales data from US, China, UK and Canada all due this week
  • US retailers Walmart, Target and Home Depot among reporters
  • Especially busy week for UK data: jobs, wages and inflation
 
This week we will find out whether and how surging energy prices and global supply chain issues have impacted consumer spending, and what this might mean for the markets. We already know US consumer sentiment hit a 10-year low, according to a University of Michigan’s closely-watched survey that was released at the back end of last week. With sentiment downbeat among consumers, this might be reflected in lower levels of spending in the months. We will get to see the latest retail sales data for the month of October from the US, as well as some of the other largest economies in the world. Meanwhile we will have earnings from top US retailers such as Walmart, Target and Home Depot to provide as an alternative snapshot of the health of the US consumer.
 

US retail sales and top retailers’ earnings eyed

 
After the biggest increase in inflation in three decades and a 10-year drop in US consumer, this week’s publication of indicators about the health of consumer at the world’s largest economy will be scrutinized closely. US retail sales numbers are due on Tuesday, when we will also get earnings results from retailers Home Depot and Walmart, with Target and Lowe’s, as well as Chipmaker Nvidia, all set to post their results a day later on Wednesday. Headline sales are actually expected to have climbed 1.2% month-over-month after a 0.7% increase the month before, while core sales are seen rising 1.0% on the month.  Given the surge in inflationary pressures and the drop in consumer sentiment, there is greater risk of a negative surprise than a positive one. If so, we could see the dollar and potentially stock markets dip in reaction, with the latter also likely to respond to the results od those retailers.
 

China surprises with stronger retail sales data

 
China was this week’s first major economy to publish its retail sales figures overnight. Contrary to economists’ expectations that sales would decline in October to 3.8% y/y from 4.4% the month before, they actually came in much better at +4.9% while the nation’s industrial production data (+3.5% vs. 3.0%) also beat expectations. The stronger data helped to keep the stock market bulls happy this morning as shares in Hong Kong rallied, with US futures and European markets mostly being higher too in the first half of today’s session.
 

UK and Canadian data also in focus

 
As well as China and the US, we will also have retail sales figures from UK and Canada this week, both coming in on Friday. In fact, it will be a busier week for UK, as we will also see the release of jobs and wages data on Tuesday, and CPI on Wednesday. On a micro level, UK-listed companies reporting results include Royal Mail (Thursday) and Vodafone (Tuesday). The FTSE, which broke out of a 6-month consolidation zone to the upside recently, could head towards its all-time highs should the macro and micro backdrop remain supported:

FTSE
Source: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
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Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
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Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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