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Week Ahead: November 22, 2021

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 19/11/2021
Week Ahead: November 22, 2021 Week Ahead: November 22, 2021
Week Ahead: November 22, 2021 Fawad Razaqzada
Risk OFF was the dominant theme in the financial markets Friday morning. European stocks indices slumped, taking US futures and crude oil lower with them. In FX, the euro and commodity dollars fell, while safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc and US dollar all gained ground. Gold rebounded as global bond yields slumped, although the stronger dollar kept the upside limited.


The trigger? Covid

 
Coronavirus has made an unwelcome return in the last few weeks, with cases rising to record levels in countries such as Germany and Austria despite the ongoing vaccination efforts. In response, the Austrian government has reimposed a full lockdown and has made vaccination mandatory. Meanwhile, the German health minister Spahn has also refused to rule out a return to lockdown in Germany. So, it is not necessarily about Austria, but concerns that similar lockdown measures might be introduced to other parts of Europe is what has weighed on sentiment today. There is now a risk for at least a short-term correction as investors wake up to the risks facing the Eurozone economy, after the major stock indices hit repeated all-time highs in recent weeks.


Gap risks

 
While it is possible that US investors might come to the rescue and buy the dip, given that the weekend is approaching, I doubt many people will be in a rush to increase their risk exposures. Indeed, there is risk of gaps at the open next week should the Covid situation deteriorate, and more lockdown measures are introduced elsewhere.


Unlikely to be repeat of Feb 2020 drop

 
Although infection rates could accelerate even further and more lockdown measures could be introduced, I very much doubt we will see a sell-off similar to the early parts of 2020 when major economies initially went into lockdowns. The world has adopted to working from home, while medications and vaccines means that the latest wave of infections will hopefully not be anywhere near as severe. Furthermore, some central banks are still buying bonds at full throttle, such as the European Central Bank. Speaking of, the ECB will now have more reason to keep its current policy in place even longer. This, in turn, should mean the downside risks are going to be limited for stocks. What’s more, with the euro weakening, this should be good news for European exports.


Week Ahead

 
In terms of the economic calendar, the week ahead is set to be quite to start with, before a sudden pickup in data releases in mid-week, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US on Thursday. So, most of the action will be concentrated in the middle of the week, with the start and finish unlikely to see much volatility in response to macro data. That’s not to say the markets will be quiet, of course. In fact, the early parts of the week ahead could see further volatility after Friday’s big sell-off in Europe. We would expect to see some further downside follow-through.


Monday and Tuesday

 
As mentioned, there’s nothing significant scheduled for Monday, except US existing home sales. The focus will be on events happening later on in the week, starting with the release of the following data on Tuesday:
 
  • New Zealand Retail Sales – as this is quarterly data, we should see some volatility in the kiwi, although FX traders may be quick to take profit ahead of the RBNZ rate decision that will follow on Wednesday.
  • Global manufacturing and services PMIs - PMI data from the Eurozone in particular will be closely monitored given the situation with Covid, with Germany reporting record cases and Merkel warning of “dramatic” situation. Germany has targeted the unvaccinated in their latest attempts to curb Covid infections. Although this is not as bad as a full-blown lockdown, Germany hasn’t ruled the latter out. Even a lockdown for the unvaccinated should still weigh on economic activity. If so, the PMI data will be the first to reveal such weakness – maybe not in the latest PMI data, but certainly in the months ahead. The PMI data will also reveal new information about the supply bottlenecks, prices and wages. Given the fact that inflation is the most important issue for the markets right now, investors will be keen to find out whether the situation is about to get better or deteriorate. The sub-indices in these PMI reports will reveal a lot of information in this regard.

Wednesday

 
Wednesday will be a big day for the markets, starting with the RBNZ rate decision and culminating in the release of the FOMC’s last meeting minutes. Here’s what’s on tap:
 
  • RBNZ policy decision - As a reminder, the RBNZ raised rates by 25 basis points at its last meeting in October after surprising the market with inaction in August, when the central bank was originally expected to hike rates for the first time since before the pandemic. With the hiking cycled having started and inflation overshooting, there is less uncertainty about a hike this time. The key is will it be 25 or 50 basis point increase in OCR, the benchmark interest rate. With the closely-watched inflation expectations data showing a big rise from 2.3% to 3.7%, a 10-year high, there is a possibility we might see a 0.5% hike, as the central bank aims to bring CPI back to its targeted range between 1 to 3 percent, with a central target of 2% being the ideal level. Such a move, if seen, should send the NZD higher across the board, while a 25bp increase may not trigger a massive move.
  • UK Autumn Forecast Statement - The UK Autumn Forecast Statement provides updated economic forecast and a preview for the government's budget for the coming year. For traders interested in the pound and UK stocks, there might be some surprises that they will need to take into account.
  • FOMC meeting minutes preceded by US data dump – this includes preliminary GDP (second estimate), durable goods orders, personal income and spending, jobless claims and core PCE Price Index among other things. Wednesday afternoon it will all be about the US economy as we will have some important data to look forward to, including the Fed’s favourite measure of inflation: the core PCE price index. The latter should move the dollar if it shows a big print. Over the past four months, it has stabilised around 3.6% year-over-year. But if it starts to accelerate to the upside again, then this will raise serious question markets over the Fed’s “transitory” inflation outlook. We will also find out exactly how concerned the FOMC was about inflation in their last policy sitting, when they decided to start the taper process. If some policymakers supported a faster pace of tapering because of concerns over inflation, then this may indicate willingness to speed up QE reduction in the months ahead, should inflation or the economy warrant it.
 

Thursday and Friday

               
Thanksgiving in the US means Wall Street will be closed, while from Europe there only a handful of macro highlights such as French GDP and ECB’s policy meeting minutes. Pound traders may wish to keep an eye or ear on BoE speakers, Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC member Haskel. There’s nothing significant to look forward to on the last day of the week, particularly with some US investors likely to be making it a long Thanksgiving weekend break. We will have a few not-so-important macro releases on Friday, including Aussie retail sales, Japan CPI and Swiss GDP.


Chart to Watch: DAX

 
After Austria triggered fears about fresh lockdowns in Europe, the DAX and other major European indices sold off. Keep an eye on the DAX as the selling could gather pace.

DAX
Source: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
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Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
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Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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