Please note ThinkMarkets does not provide CFD services to residents of the US.

Please note ThinkMarkets does not provide CFD services to residents of the US.

Learn To Trade
 
Indicators & Chart Patterns

Deepen your knowledge of technical analysis indicators and hone your skills as a trader.

Find your detailed guides here
Trading Glossary

From beginners to experts, all traders need to know a wide range of technical terms. Let us be your guide.

Learn more
Knowledge Base

No matter your experience level, download our free trading guides and develop your skills.

Learn more
Learn To Trade

Trade smarter: boost your skills with our training resources.

Create a live account
Market Analysis
 
Market News

All the latest market news, with regular insights and analysis from our in-house experts

Learn more
Economic Calendar

Make sure you are ahead of every market move with our constantly updated economic calendar.

Learn more
Technical Analysis

Harness past market data to forecast price direction and anticipate market moves.

Learn more
Live Webinars

Boost your knowledge with our live, interactive webinars delivered by industry experts.

Register now
Special Reports

Engaging, in-depth macroeconomic analysis and expert educational content from our in-house analysts

Learn more
Market Analysis

Harness the market intelligence you need to build your trading strategies.

Create a live account
Partnership
 
Affiliate Programme

Grow your business and get rewarded. Find out more about our Affiliate Programme today.

Learn more
Introducing Broker

ThinkMarkets ensures high levels of client satisfaction with high client retention and conversion rates.

Learn more
Proprietary Trading

Partner with us to build your own prop trading business. Enquire with our account managers today.

Learn more
White Label

We supply everything you need to create your own brand in the Forex industry.

Learn more
Regional Representatives

Partner with ThinkMarkets today to access full consulting services, promotional materials and your own budgets.

Learn more
Refer a friend

Receive $50 for you and your friend when you convert them into an active trader of ThinkMarkets.

Learn more
Partnership

Plug into the next-gen platforms and the trades your clients want.

Partner Portal
About ThinkMarkets
 
Sponsorships

Check out our sponsorships with global institutions and athletes, built on shared values of excellence.

Learn more
About Us

Find out more about ThinkMarkets, an established, multi-award winning global broker you can trust.

Learn more
Careers

Discover a range of rewarding career possibilities across the globe

Apply now
ThinkMarkets News

Keep up to date with our latest company news and announcements

Learn more
Trading Infrastructure

When it comes to the speed we execute your trades, no expense is spared. Find out more.

Learn more
Contact Us

Our multilingual support team is here for you 24/7.

Learn more
About ThinkMarkets

Global presence, local expertise - find out what sets us apart.

Create a live account
Log in Create account

USD/JPY: Dollar, yields rise as hike bets increase

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 16/11/2021
USD/JPY: Dollar, yields rise as hike bets increase USD/JPY: Dollar, yields rise as hike bets increase
USD/JPY: Dollar, yields rise as hike bets increase Fawad Razaqzada
It was expected that much of the attention was going to be on US retail sales data today and earnings from some of the major US retailer, with some analysts expecting to see lower levels of sales because of the upsurge in price pressures and the hit in consumer sentiment. However, that wasn’t the case. Retail sales came in higher than expected and Walmart posted a much bigger revenue than expected. The markets initially didn’t respond much to the data. But the dollar started to pick up momentum shortly after. It was the Fed’s James Bullard who stole the show, as the St. Louis Fed President delivered some hawkish remarks.
 
Bullard’s comments – and the consumer sales data – helped to send the US 10-year yield rises to 1.635%, its highest level since October 26. Correspondingly, the dollar extended its gains and precious metals turned lower. The dollar rose most notably against the euro and yen, currencies where the central bank remains very dovish. Commodity dollars and emerging market currencies sold off too, with the Turkish lira slumping to a fresh record low – a daily occurrence now. As EM sold off, concerns over demand for things like oil rose, and this caused Brent and WTI to drop.
 

Bullard’s hawkish remarks

 
With the market pricing in sooner rate hikes in recent days, following another big jump in inflation, it looks like the Fed is trying to get itself in line with the market expectations. James Bullard said: “I think we’ve gotten past the taper-tantrum issue because we went ahead with the taper. We could move faster -- we kept optionality on this that we could speed up the taper if it is appropriate,”
 
Some of the other notable headlines that came from his speech include:
 
  • MAKES SENSE TO MOVE MORE HAWKISHLY, MANAGE PRICE RISK
  • FED TAPER INCREASED TO $30B PER MONTH WOULD OPEN DOOR TO RATE INCREASE END OF Q1 2022
  • CORE PCE IS "QUITE HIGH," FED SHOULD TAKE TOWARDS MORE HAWKISH POLICY IN NEXT COUPLE OF MEETINGS
 

US retail sales beat but dollar little further upside

 
US Dollar showed very mild reaction even as sales beat expectations quite easily. Headline retail sales for October came in at +1.7% versus +1.2% expected. Sales ex auto also beat at +1.7% versus +1.0% estimate.
 

Who will lead the Fed?

 
Traders are also keeping an eye on a decision from the White House on who the next Federal Reserve Chair will be and how that in turn might impact US monetary policy. In the race are both the incumbent Chair Jerome Powell and Fed Governor Lael Brainard. They have both been interviewed for the top job. A decision on the appointment is expected very soon.
 
 
There’s been some speculation that Fed policy tightening could be slowed down under Brainard’s leadership. This partly explains why the US stock market has yet to respond meaningfully to the upsurge in inflation and increased bets on policy tightening. Earlier this month, news of Brainard’s potential appointment had sent bond yields lower as the markets assumed she would be a much more dovish candidate than Powell.
 
 

USD/JPY 115.00 looks imminent

 
One of the major FX pairs with the most straight-forward reaction to increasing bets over tighter monetary policy in the US has been the USD/JPY. It broke out again today after spending the last couple of days in a tight consolidation range. It looks like 115.00 is almost imminent:
 
USD/JPYSource: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Back to top