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USD/TRY: Lira and CBRT’s credibility slump to new lows

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 18/11/2021
USD/TRY: Lira and CBRT’s credibility slump to new lows USD/TRY: Lira and CBRT’s credibility slump to new lows
USD/TRY: Lira and CBRT’s credibility slump to new lows Fawad Razaqzada
As expected, Turkey’s central bank cut interest rates by 100 basis point to 15% from 16% earlier. Although the Turkish lira didn’t initially fall any further, the beleaguered currency then hit a new record low after two conflicting headlines hit the wires one after another:
 

TURKEY'S CENTRAL BANK SAYS MIGHT EASE POLICY AGAIN IN DECEMBER

 

TURKISH CENTRAL BANK CONSIDERS TO END RATE CUTS IN DECEMBER
 
The market clearly doesn’t take the CBRT seriously anymore, as it has lost any little credibility it had. Erdogan is running the show. If he want’s lower interest rates he will get lower rates, regardless of how high inflation might be or how the economy is doing. So, with the CBRT head saying the central bank will consider ending rate cuts in December, then he might as well consider a new job!
 
It is very difficult to see the light at the end of the tunnel for the Turkish lira unfortunately. The slumping currency may make holidays cheaper and boost exports. But foreign demand for Turkish products and services will have to rise materially to offset the negative impact of the currency crisis and inflation on the economy. If the TRY is to find support, it will have to come from fiscal policy as monetary policy is in tatters.
 
The USD/TRY could be heading north of 11.00 days after breaking the 10.00 handle. Likewise, the EUR/TRY looks highly likely to rise to new records above 12.50.

USD/TRYSource: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
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Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
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Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

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