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Week Ahead Preview 21st of November

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 21/11/2022
Week Ahead Preview 21st of November Week Ahead Preview 21st of November
Week Ahead Preview 21st of November Mahmoud Alkudsi
Investors have a relatively light economic calendar to follow this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Nonetheless, there will be some data releases and Fed members’ speeches that may keep traders on their toes. Mainly, Wednesday will be the most important day of the week in terms of data and risk events.
 
Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving in the US) is an important event to find out how high inflation levels have affected Americans’ shopping habits, and whether high-interest rates on their credit cards could hinder them from taking on additional debt. This could also help economists in predicting how may the Christmas shopping season look like.
 
Markets sentiment U-turned and paused the US Dollar’s bearish trend last week, while the gold lost around 1.2% of its value and most of the US major indices closed in the red on Friday mainly, due to Fed members’ hawkish comments combined with better-than-expected US retail sales data. On the other hand, the Brent oil price fell below the $90 threshold and tested a multi-week low on concerns of lower demand over rising COVID-19 cases in China, a weak global economic outlook, and a potential recession caused by a tight monetary policy from central banks aimed to tame high inflation levels.
 
   
Economic data highlights 
 
Monday 21st of November 
 
  • EUR - Producers Price Index (Germany-OCT)
  • BoE Cunliffe Speech
  • USD- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (OCT)
 
Tuesday 22nd of November 
 
  • RBA Gov Lowe Speech
  • CAD - Retail Sales (SEP)
  • Fed Mester Speech
  • Fed George Speech
  • Fed Bullard Speech
  • BoC Gov Rogers Speech
  • ZAR- Leading Business Cycle Indicator (SEP)
  • ZAR- SACCI Business Confidence (OCT)
 
Wednesday 23rd of November  
 
  • AUD- Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (NOV)
  • RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & RBNZ Press Conference
  • EUR- Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (NOV)
  • GBP- Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (NOV)
  • USD- Durable Goods Orders (OCT)
  • USD- Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (NOV)
  • USD- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (NOV)
  • US Crude Oil Inventories
  • FOMC Minutes
  • ZAR- Inflation Rate (OCT)
 
Thursday 24th of November 
 
  • US Thanksgiving Holiday
  • JPY- Leading Economic Index Final (SEP)
  • EUR- Ifo Business Climate (Germany-NOV)
  • CAD- Average Weekly Earnings YoY (SEP)
  • ZAR- PPI (OCT)
  • ZAR- Business Confidence (Q4)
  • ZAR- Interest Rate Decision
 
Friday 25th of November  
 
  • NZD - Retail Sales (Q3)
  • JPY - Inflation Rates (Nov)
  • EUR - GDP (Germany-Q3)
  • EUR- GfK Consumer Confidence (Germany -DEC)
 
RBNZ Meeting
 
 
The RBNZ is widely expected to hike interest rates by 75bp this week taking the cash rate from 3.5% to 4.25% as the inflation rate remains far above the 1% - 3% targeted average (at 7.2% in Q3) combined with a very low unemployment rate (at 3.3% Q3). 
 
FOMC Minutes 
 
Inflation levels pointed lower in October and boosted investors’ risk appetite. However, Fed members suggested last week that there were more rate hikes on the horizon but at a slower pace. According to Fed member Mr Bostic, “the central bank should conclude its tightening cycle after no more than 100 bp of additional hikes “.
 
The expected FOMC minutes does not consider the October inflation numbers (as the meeting was held before the CPI data release). Nevertheless, investors would check the minutes to find out how far the Fed could go in its war on inflation even with the high prospect of causing an economic recession.
 
South African Interest Rate Decision

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will announce its final interest rate decision for the year this week, a day after the release of October consumer inflation numbers. The headline inflation number is expected to ease to 7.4% from 7.5%, while core inflation is expected to remain sticky, rising from 4.7% to 4.9%.
In the past 12 months, the repo rate has been increased by 250 basis points to 6.25% by September 2022 and has been in line with international central banks’ actions to contain rising inflation, which is currently far outside the central bank’s targeted range of 3%-6%.
The SARB is expected to hike interest rates by 75 basis points, taking the repo rate to 7% and the prime rate to 10.5%.
 
 
 
 
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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