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Week Ahead Preview 10th of October

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 10/10/2022
Week Ahead Preview 10th of October Week Ahead Preview 10th of October
Week Ahead Preview 10th of October Mahmoud Alkudsi
Investors’ eyes will be laser-focused on the US inflation report of September this week, as they struggle to find out whether the US central bank will loosen its ultra-tight policy any time this year. Any lower-than-expected CPI print will be more than welcome however, it is highly premature to say that the inflation rate will decelerate quickly, especially after the OPEC+ production cut (two million barrels per day) last week which sent the oil price higher by nearly 14%.
 
The US economy added 263K jobs in September while the unemployment rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%. The NFP report shows increases in multiple economic areas including the manufacturing sector despite the lower-than-expected ISM PMI print of September. To conclude, the lack of labour continues to pressurize the economy with a higher vacancies number than the unemployed workforce in the US. This could lead companies to increase salaries to retain workers and consequently extend the duration of high inflation rates.  
 
Markets were hoping that any higher-than-expected unemployment read could lead the Fed to consider reducing its current rate’s hiking pace however, optimism disappeared after the NFP data released on Friday. As a result, major US indices reversed direction and gave up most of their weekly gains, meanwhile the US Dollar rallied, and the Gold retreated.  

Economic data highlights

Monday 10th of October
  • Fed Evans Speech
Tuesday 11th of October
  • AUD- Consumer Confidence Index (OCT)
  • GBP- Unemployment Rate (AUG)
  • FED Harker and Mester Speech
  • BOE Governor Bailey Speech
Wednesday 12th of October
  • GBP- GDP (AUG)
  • GBP- Industrial and Manufacturing Production (AUG)
  • EUR- Industrial Production (AUG)
  • OPEC Monthly Report
  • ECB president Lagarde’s Speech
  • USD- PPI (SEP)
  • FOMC Minutes
Thursday 13th of October
  • EUR- Inflation Rate Final (Germany-SEP)
  • CHF- PPI (SEP)
  • USD- Inflation Rate (SEP)
Friday 14thof September
  • CNH- Inflation Rate (SEP)
  • USD-Retail Sales (SEP)
  • USD-Michigan Consumer Sentiment (OCT)
 
US Inflation  

The main risk event to watch this week will be the US CPI report. We may see the US inflation headline falling from 8.3% in August to 8.1% in September due to oil prices fall last month which was reflected in cheaper gasoline prices and lower transport costs in the US.
On the other hand, the core CPI read (ex-food and energy) may climb from 6.3% in August to 6.5% in September due to the rise in housing costs mainly. A lower-than-expected read could provide some optimism about a possible change in the US monetary policy by next year.
 
FOMC Minute

Markets will be waiting for the FOMC minutes of September’s meeting to get more details about the committee’s discussions. The Fed members keep a close watch on inflation and unemployment levels and have been clear over recent weeks that they were not satisfied with the current inflation levels and promised there would be further tightening. Investors would look for any hints in the minutes of a possible pivot in 2023.  
 
The Fed still have two meetings this year in November and December. The central bank will stay focused on bringing inflation levels down to 2% hence, it’s highly likely to hike by 75 bp in November and 50 bp in December ending 2022 at 4.50%.

 
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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09/01/2023

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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