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Week Ahead Preview 17th of October

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 17/10/2022
Week Ahead Preview 17th of October Week Ahead Preview 17th of October
Week Ahead Preview 17th of October Mahmoud Alkudsi

Markets will be waiting for very important data from the UK and other major economies this week. The UK’s mini-budget fiasco was among the hot topics recently which led the prime minister to fire her chancellor of exchequer Mr Kwarteng and replace him with Jeremy Hunt. Nonetheless, it does not look like Liz Truss is out of the woods yet after her disappointing press conference on Friday therefore, it is highly likely the Sterling pound to remain under pressure until markets get a clear political and fiscal image in the UK.
 
Investors will be following the 20th national congress of the Chinese communist party this week. President Xi is highly likely to continue in power and his policy towards Taiwan could stay unchanged given his focus on more urgent issues such as the property-development crisis, the problematic Covid zero policy, youth unemployment and economic growth. Eyes will be also on the Russian-Ukrainian war’s updates as any use of a prohibited kind of weapon could take this war to a different level. 
 
The US inflation report released last week erased any hope of a less-hawkish monetary policy from the Fed this year. Therefore, investors modified their portfolios pressing most US indices and the Gold to close in the red, while the greenback index stabilized above 113.00. On the other hand, the oil price fell by 7% on fears of lower demand due to an expected global recession.


Economic data highlights

Monday 17th of October

  • JPY- Industrial Production Final (AUG)
Tuesday 18th of October
  • NZD- Inflation Rate (Q3)
  • RBA Meeting Minutes
  • CNH- GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
  • CNH- Industrial Production (SEP)
  • CNH- Retail Sales (SEP)
  • EUR- ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (OCT)
  • USD- Industrial Production MoM (SEP)
  • USD- NAHB Housing Market Index (OCT)
Wednesday 19th of October
  • GBP- Core Inflation Rate (SEP)
  • GBP- Inflation Rate (SEP)
  • EUR- Core Inflation Rate Final (SEP)
  • CAD- Inflation Rate (SEP)
Thursday 20th of October
  • AUD- Unemployment Rate (SEP)
  • USD- CB Leading Index MoM (SEP)
  • USD- Existing Home Sales MoM (SEP)
Friday 21st of October
  • GBP- Gfk Consumer Confidence (OCT)
  • JPY- Inflation Rate (SEP)
  • GBP- Retail Sales (SEP)
  • CAD- Retail Sales (AUG)
  • EUR- Consumer Confidence Flash (OCT)
 
High-interest Rates Come with a Price
 
The higher-than-expected inflation read (8.2% vs 8.1%) of September revealed last week increased the odds for the fourth 75 bp rate hike in early November and opened the door for the fifth in December. Although, the Fed members would remain data-dependent before deciding the size of any rate hike.
 
The US interest rate could end 2022 at 4.50% weighing heavily on the housing market with a lower number of mortgage applications and consequently, lower profitability in the construction and furniture sectors leading some related companies out of business.     
 
BoE Monetary Policy
 
The Bank of England ended its temporary bond-buying scheme announced to slow down the sell-off of the Gilts (UK bonds) triggered by the unfounded tax cuts in the mini-budget.
 
Eyes will be on the coming meeting of the central bank on November 3rd, to see how aggressively the MPC members will hike rates possibly (75bp to 100bp). The consumer price index data of September (inflation) is expected to rise from 9.9% to 10% yet it is unlikely to be the main decider here however, the UK fiscal policy to be announced by Jeremy Hunt this week could be the main driver of the monetary policy. 
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Week Ahead Preview 19th of December

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19/12/2022

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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