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Week Ahead Preview 24th of October

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 24/10/2022
Week Ahead Preview 24th of October Week Ahead Preview 24th of October
Week Ahead Preview 24th of October Mahmoud Alkudsi
The markets’ focus will be on the European Central Bank meeting this week. Investors expect another jumbo rate hike of 75bp despite the looming economic crisis in the Eurozone, as the ECB officials remain committed to bringing inflation to the 2% target. investors will keep an eye on the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada meetings taking place this week as well.  
 
There are lots of important figures for the US and other major economies this week. The US GDP of Q3 is likely to show a positive number for the first time this year after experiencing a “technical” recession in the previous two quarters, the market expects that the US economy has grown by 2.1% in the third. However, the core personal consumer expenditure data (the Fed’s favorite tool to measure inflation) is expected to rise from 4.9% to 5.2%. This could lead the Fed to keep its tight monetary policy unchanged and deliver its fourth 75bp rate hike in November.
 
The conservative party in the UK has kick-started a fast-track contest to appoint a new leader, candidates must secure the support of 100 MPs to get through the next stage. The former Chancellor of the Exchequer Mr. Rishi Sunak has a comfortable backing of 147 MPs, the Cabinet Minister Penny Mordaunt remained with only 24 MPs supporting her candidacy, while Boris Johnson pulled out of the leadership race, saying: “it would simply not be the right thing to do”. 
 
The US indices and the Gold rallied on Friday as some sellers took profit by the end of the week. The greenback index closed in the red while the oil price stabilized on expectations of more demand from China.
 
Economic data highlights

Monday 24th of October
  • AUD-S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (OCT)
  • CNH- GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
  • CNH- Industrial Production (SEP)
  • EUR- S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (OCT)
  • GBP- S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (OCT)
  • USD- S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (OCT)
Tuesday 25th of October
  • EUR - Ifo Business Climate (Germany- OCT)
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Speech
  • USD- House Price Index (AUG)
  • USD- Consumer Confidence (OCT)
Wednesday 26th of October
  • AUD- Inflation Rate (Q3)
  • JPY- Leading Economic Index Final (AUG)
  • BoC Interest Rate Decision & press conference
  • USD-New Home Sales (SEP)
Thursday 27th of October
  • EUR- GfK Consumer Confidence (Germany- NOV)
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision & press conference
  • USD- Durable Goods Orders (SEP)
  • USD- GDP (Q3)
  • USD - PCE Prices (Q3)
Friday 28th of October
  • JPY- Inflation Rate (OCT)
  • AUD- Producers Price Index (Q3)
  • BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • EUR- GDP and Inflation Rate (Germany – Oct)
  • USD- Core PCE Price Index (Sep)
  • CAD- GDP (AUG)
  • USD- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)
The ECB Meeting 
 
The ECBs’ hawks have a strong argument to press toward another jumbo 75 bp rate hike in November’s meeting given the inflation levels in the Eurozone are far away from their 2% target (9.9% in September).  

On the other hand, markets would like to find out more about whether the ECB would follow the Feds’ steps and start talking about a quantitative tightening process ie, shrinking nearly 5 trillion euros of bonds accumulated during recent crises.
 
Bank Of Canada
 
The Upside inflation level direction in Canada keeps the pressure on the Central bank to hike interest rates further. Therefore, it is highly likely to see the BoC hiking by 75 Bp taking Canadian interest rates to their highest in nearly 12 years at 4.0%.
 
Bank of Japan
 
Governor Kuroda could warn that the recent currency depreciation would have a negative effect on the economy however, it is expected that the Bank of Japan to keep its current policy unchanged. It is noteworthy to mention that the USD/JPY hit last week a multi-decade high and broke above 150.00 threshold.
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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