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Week Ahead Preview 3rd of October

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 03/10/2022
Week Ahead Preview 3rd of October Week Ahead Preview 3rd of October
Week Ahead Preview 3rd of October Mahmoud Alkudsi
Investors’ eyes will be on major central banks meetings and FOMC members’ speeches this week. Markets expect the monetary policymakers to maintain their hawkish rhetoric as long as low unemployment levels allow them to keep their aggressive rate hikes to control high inflation levels. That said, signs of weakness in the unanimous stance of the Fed members appeared last week as some hinted at the need to slow down the current rate hike’s pace, and more of those signals this week could boost the market’s risk appetite sending risky assets higher.
 
The British Pound recovered from a muti-decade low against the US Dollar last week and rallied by 3% however, the storm is far from over as the bank of England has returned to quantitative easing policy (buying bonds) until October 14th 2022 to maintain financial stability, although, this would increase the double-digit inflation figure in the UK and require a series of rate hikes that could send British interest rates above 4% by the end of 2022.
 
Most of the US and Europe’s indices retreated by nearly 3% last week on risk-off sentiment triggered by the current hawkish central banks’ policies. On the other hand, the Gold closed in the green benefiting from the US dollar fall while Oil slipped on increased fears of lower demand due to expectations of a global recession hence, OPEC+ considers in this week’s meeting cutting 1 million barrels per day or 1% of global supply.

Economic data highlights

Monday 3rd of October
  • CHF- Inflation Rate (SEP)
  • EUR- Global Manufacturing PMI Final (SEP)
  • GBP- Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (SEP)
  • CAD- Global Manufacturing PMI Final (SEP)
  • USD- ISM Manufacturing PMI (SEP)
  • Fed George & Williams Speeches
Tuesday 4th of October
  • RBA Interest Rate Decision
  • Fed Logan, Williams, Mester and Daly Speeches
  • ECB President Lagarde’s Speech
 
Wednesday 5th of October
  • AUD- Global Services PMI Final (SEP)
  • RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • OPEC meeting
  • EUR- Global Services PMI Final (SEP)
  • USD- ADP Employment Change (SEP)
  • USD- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (SEP)
Thursday 6th of October
  • EUR- Retail Sales (AUG)
  • Fed Evans Speech 
  • ECB Monetary Policy Minutes
Friday 7thof September
  • CHF- Unemployment Rate (SEP)
  • EUR- Retail Sales (Germany-AUG)
  • CAD- Unemployment Rate (SEP)
  • USD- Non-Farm Payrolls (SEP)
  • USD - Unemployment Rate (SEP)
  • Fed Williams Speech
 
Central Banks Meetings
 
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to hike interest rates by 50bp from 2.35% to 2.85% in the coming meeting given the higher-than-expected retail sales figures of August (0.6%) combined with stabilized unemployment rates at 3.5%. That said, this could be a dovish hike as the central bank may start to raise rates at a slower pace as inflation may decelerate later in 2023.  
 
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may follow its Australian peer in its hawkish course and hike interest rates by 50 bp from 3.0 to 3.5% in the coming meeting to contain price pressures while attempting not to push the economy into recession. The RBNZ is expected to hike rates even further this year by another 50 bp before starts considering slowing its pace by next year.
  
Non-Farm Payroll
 
Fed officials were unanimous in their recent speeches on fighting high inflation levels, thus markets expect the central bank to keep its tight monetary policy and deliver more rate hikes in the coming months.
 
The expected non-farm payroll report will provide an updated picture of the US labour market and even if the unemployment data come in higher than expected and the average hourly range come in lower-than-expected, it is highly likely to see the Fed hiking interest rates by 75bp in November’s meeting, unless November’s CPI report reveals a big drop, in that case, a 50bp rate hike would be more likely.  
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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09/01/2023

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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