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Week Ahead Preview 19th of September

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 19/09/2022
Week Ahead Preview 19th of September Week Ahead Preview 19th of September
Week Ahead Preview 19th of September Mahmoud Alkudsi
A slow start on Monday and then it gets busier on the economic calendar from Tuesday until the end of the week as data and central banks updates will start flowing. All eyes will be on the Fed’s meeting to get more clarity about the US monetary policy through the central bank’s economic projections, and where the FOMC members see interest rates could be by the end of this year and 2023.
 
The higher-than-expected US inflation data of August released last week provided a strong reason for investors to think that the Fed would be more aggressive in its war against inflation therefore, the market started to price in further rate hikes. Major US stock indices and the gold price closed in the red on Friday erasing the previous week’s gains. The central banks’ race to hike rates leaned major economies toward recession and weighed on oil prices.  

Economic data highlights

Monday 19th of September
  • USD - NAHB Housing Market Index (SEP)
Tuesday 20th of September
  • JPY - Inflation Rate (AUG)
  • RBA Meeting Minutes
  • CAD - Inflation Rate (AUG)
  • USD- Housing Starts (AUG)
Wednesday 21st of September
  • FOMC Economic Projections
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • Fed Press Conference
Thursday 22nd of September
  • BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision
  • EUR- Consumer Confidence Flash (SEP)
  • USD - CB Leading Index (AUG)
Friday 23rd of September
  • AUD- S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (SEP)
  • EUR- S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (SEP)
  • GBP- S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (SEP)
  • USD- S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (SEP)
 
FOMC Meeting
 
The core CPI accelerated in August from 5.9% to 6.3% and led investors to believe that the Fed would keep its tight monetary policy. Therefore, the Fed is likely to deliver a 75bp rate hike in the upcoming meeting on Wednesday.

Investors will wait for the Fed chair’s press conference and the central bank’s projections for the US economy. The main message we could get from Powell’s speech is the FOMC commitment to bringing inflation levels down to their target at 2% and that any rate hike in the coming meetings would be data-dependent.

That said, the Fed could send a hawkish message as the dot plot may reflect the market pricing of a 4.25-4.50% rate by the end of 2022. The Fed may change the US GPD and PCE inflation projections released in June 2022.   
 
Other Central Banks Meetings
 
 
The RBA will release its minutes from the September meeting. Investors will look for more clarity on the pace of tightening the Australian monetary policy, given Governor’s Lowe recent speech that hinted a bit of a slowdown could come soon.
 
As per the Bank of England meeting, the double-digit inflation figure of July at 10.1% increases the pressure on the central bank to continue its contractionary monetary policy. The MPC members could hike interest rates by 50 bp, even though some members could vote for a 75 bp given the British Pound price decline against the US dollar and due to other central banks’ aggressive policies like the EBC which hiked interest rates by 75bp, while the Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 75 bp for the third time in its upcoming meeting.
 
As per the Bank of Japan, investors will focus on this meeting to see how the central bank could justify keeping its ultra-easy policy in a very inflationary environment.
 
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
×
Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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