The 2024 US Presidential Election Timeline

The 2024 US presidential election is gearing up to be a pivotal moment in American politics. Traders and investors from all over the world have their eyes on key events that could potentially impact financial markets. In this article, we will outline the major events and provide a timeline to help you stay informed during this monumental political event.

January 2024: Early Speculation and Primary Debates

As the year begins, speculation about potential candidates for both major political parties will intensify. It is highly likely that there will be a repeat of the 2020 US elections with the Democrats fronted by current US president Joe Biden while the Republicans nominate Donald Trump as their standard bearer.

However, some prominent figures in American politics have also stepped forward to put their hat in the ring. Below is a list of candidates, as of January 2024:

Democrat

Joseph Biden Jr.

Marianne Williamson

Dean Phillips

Republican

Donald Trump	Nikki Haley		Asa Hutchinson
Ryan Binkley	Ron DeSantis	Chris Christie

Independent

Robert Kennedy Jr.

Cornel West

Jill Stein

Keep an eye out for the primary debates. These debates are a candidate’s first chance to showcase their platforms and engage with voters. Take note of their proposed policies and which sectors they’re leaning towards or moving away from as the markets tend to react as candidates gain popularity.

Let's look at a possible scenario where a candidate proposing protectionist policies aimed at restricting international trade to protect US companies wins voter polls and surveys. Protectionist policies often include imposing tariffs on imported goods and renegotiating international trade agreements.

The possibility of a protectionist US president creates uncertainty in the global economy. Investors are likely to turn to safe-haven assets such as gold or the Japanese yen to mitigate risk. The price of XAUUSD may see an uptick while currency pairs like USD/JPY may experience a tumble as demand for the Japanese yen increases.

Protectionist policies may also affect the commodities market, specifically oil and agricultural products, which are dependent on international demand. As investors expect potential disruptions in global trade, there may be a drop in commodity prices.

July 15-18, 2024: Republican Party Convention

The Republican National Convention is scheduled for July 15-18, 2024, at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. This event will serve as the official nomination ceremony of the Republican party’s presidential candidate.

The convention usually sets the stage for the main campaign as the party unveils platforms and casts their votes.

August 19-22, 2024: Democratic Party Convention

As the Democrats currently hold the White House, it is tradition that the Democratic Party Convention is held after the Republicans. The Democrats are scheduled to convene on August 19 – 22, 2024 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.

September to October 2024: US Presidential Election Debates

One of the most anticipated events in any presidential election is the series of debates between the candidates. Typically, there are three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate. These debates provide voters with an opportunity to see how candidates handle tough questions and articulate their positions on critical issues.

See the timeline of debates below:

Debate	Date	Location	Host
First Presidential Debate	September 16, 2024	San Marcos, Texas	Texas State University
Vice Presidential Debate	September 25, 2024	Easton, Pennsylvania	Lafayette College
Second Presidential Debate	October 1, 2024	Petersburg, Virginia	Virginia State University
Third Presidential Debate	October 9, 2024	Salt Lake City, Utah	The University of Utah

Not only US citizens, but traders worldwide, including those in the US, show keen interest in the presidential debates due to their potential impact on financial markets. Presidential candidates use these debates to convey their economic policies and ideologies, discussing topics such as taxation, climate change, and trade agreements.

Depending on a candidate’s popularity, these proposed policies may cause sharp price movements in forex, stocks and commodities as investors deal with the potential consequences of a candidate’s economic agenda.

Historically, forex, in particular, has proven itself to be highly sensitive to the US presidential debates. A candidate’s position on international trade, tariffs, and foreign policy can strengthen or weaken currencies. Traders often watch debates for suggestions of protectionism or support for open markets.

October 2024: Final Campaign Push

The month of October is when the campaign enters its final stretch. Candidates will crisscross the country, holding rallies, participating in town halls, and making their final pitch to voters. The majority of these events are highly publicised. Strong opinions voiced out by candidates are carefully analysed by traders and economists as they prepare for the possibility of a candidate’s triumph.

November 5, 2024: Election Day

As per the US government, Election Day is set as "the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November", making the 60th quadrennial presidential election fall on November 5. The US presidential election garners significant global attention, with many around the world closely following the results as voters head to the polls. Expect volatility during this period as expectations rise for a certain candidate to win.

December 2024: Electoral College Vote

While the popular vote is crucial, the US presidential election is determined by the Electoral College. In mid-December, electors from each state will convene to cast their votes for the next POTUS. However, from a market perspective, the biggest reaction is on the exit poll on the election day. We usually see new trends in stock indices and FX starting on this day.

January 2025: Inauguration Day

The presidential inauguration takes place the following year. Inauguration Day is when the newly elected president is sworn into office as the former president steps down.

The US presidential elections open numerous opportunities for traders as the markets react to major news. Public appearances, debates, and even news articles can lead to major price swings in global markets.

It is essential for traders to keep a record of these key events and the crucial issues discussed so they can stay ahead of the curve.

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