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Markets stable with UK shares outperforming ahead of Budget 2021

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 03/03/2021
Markets stable with UK shares outperforming ahead of Budget 2021 Markets stable with UK shares outperforming ahead of Budget 2021
Markets stable with UK shares outperforming ahead of Budget 2021 Fawad Razaqzada
  • Risk ON as European stock indices open higher
  • Crude oil rebounds, cryptos rise and dollar mixed
  • Strong data outweighs concerns over rising yields
  • UK socks outperform with Chancellor Rishi Sunak to present Budget at 12:30 GMT
  • Thing to watch out for in the Budget
 
The markets have been all over the place for the past few days, alternating between “risk-on” and “risk-off” as investors have tried to weigh the impact of rising yields against the prospects of a strong economic rebound with the ongoing COVID vaccine rollouts. Today, it was back to being "risk on," even though concerns over valuations and rising bond yields are still there. Stocks were higher in Europe, led by the UK’s FTSE 250. Crude oil was higher after a 3-day drop. Bitcoin was up 6% after reclaiming the $50K handle. In FX, the dollar was mixed with other haven currencies – the Swiss franc and Japanese yen – being weaker. UK shares were outperforming ahead of Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s budget announcement, with investors happy to hear that he would extend furlough pay for workers.

Should investors be too concerned about yields?

At current levels, real and indeed nominal bond yields are still quite low relative to historical levels. Central banks are continuing to ‘print’ at full throttle. So, we are still in expansionary monetary policy phase. Obviously, bond purchases will be tapered by central banks as the recovery takes shape. But for as long as they are not withdrawn very quickly and interest rates are not hiked too soon, this should keep the bulls happy. If anything, rising bond yields point to a stronger global economy.

Stronger data provides encouragement

Indeed, it looks like investors are being encouraged by signs that the pandemic-hit global economy will bounce back strongly and that this will help boost future corporate earnings, reducing the need to just rely on central bank and government support.

Fresh data revealed the Australian economy maintained its rapid recovery in the final three months of 2020 with GDP expanding by 3.1% vs. 2.5% expected, following an above-forecast growth of 3.4% in Q3. The Eurozone final services PMI was unexpectedly revised higher by 1 whole point, albeit it still remained deep in the contractionary territory at 45.7. The latest PMI reading from Italy also beat expectations.

UK stocks, pound outperform ahead of Budget 2021 announcement

But after opening sharply higher, stock indices eased off their best levels as we approached mid-day in Europe. UK shares were leading the gains in Europe, with the domestically-focused FTSE 250 being up 1.3% at the time of writing, outperforming the FTSE (1.1%) and mainland European indices (which rose between 0.5 to 1.0 percent).

What to expect from the UK Budget?

Rishi Sunak will reveal a wide range of measures to support the recovery, some of which have already been leaked. Tax hikes are necessary to help pay for the vast government support. But who will shoulder the tax hikes is the key question?
 
  • Corporation tax - Sunak is expected to announce plans to raise corporation tax to between 23 and 25, from 19 percent currently.  But the increase could be delayed until early 2022 to avoid chocking growth, just as lockdowns are about to end.
  • Income tax - Sunak is not expected to increase income taxes and likely to freeze the £12,500 threshold above which people start paying income tax. The £50,000 threshold above which people pay 40% is also likely to be frozen.
  • Furlough scheme is expected to be extended until September, with the government covering 80% of wages for works impacted by the pandemic until the end of June, up to a maximum of £2,500 a month. The support reduces from that point.
  • Self-employment grants will continue at the same terms. The grant for February, March and April will see the Government cover 80% of monthly profits up to a maximum of £2,500 a month.
  • "Help To Buy" is another announcement likely to garner the attention as the government tries to help people get on the property ladder with a deposit of just 5%. Meanwhile, there will likely be an extension to the stamp duty freeze for another 3 months. This will results in an additional 300,000 property sales in England, according to Rightmove.
 
The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its latest forecasts for the UK economy and public finances later this afternoon after the Chancellor’s Budget speech.
 
Ahead of the UK budget announcement, the FTSE was testing resistance around 6700/10 area:

FTSESource: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com
 
The index needs to break above the short-term bearish trend line to ignite fresh technical buying after holding its own above the key support at 6515 earlier in the week.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
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Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
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Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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