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Posted by Naeem Aslam | 08/01/2018 08:05
If you really think that Bitcoin is nothing but a sham concept or a big bubble, then we should have seen massive short bets by now. But after observing the volume and the size of the short trades on Bitcoin’s future market, the evidence of such an aspect is clearly missing. This makes you assume either traders are actually scared to short bitcoin because of its popularity and it's volatility or they are waiting on the sidelines. So, you can say that for sceptics, since the launch of the Bitcoin futures, the process has been disappointing. Having said this, since the launch of the Bitcoin futures on the CBOE and the CME exchanges, one thing which we have not witnessed is the string of record highs for Bitcoin.
Looking at the recent CFTC data on Bitcoin, the general theme which becomes more prominent is that of speculators slowly building their short position. The most intriguing part of the CFTC data is the leverage fund category (hedge funds & money managers are part of this herd); it holds nearly one-quarter of the short position as compared to the total open interest. Remember, the CFTC data is not that recent, these numbers were reported on the 26 December but we do need more latest numbers in order to have any firm view.
Ethereum has grabbed the headlines in the crypto space today as the currency has made another record high of $1266. The momentum for the currency has been strong especially when you compare this to Bitcoin. Only in four days, Ethereum traders pushed the price to an all-time high of $1000.
As for the dollar index, it is trading higher despite the fact the numbers released on Friday weren't amazing. At the same time, this US NFP report is not going to stop the Fed from their current tightening cycle. The Fed is hopeful the modest improvement in the commodity prices and the US tax overhaul both help the country's weak inflation data.
Nonetheless, the precious metal is still holding its ground and it is trading well above the critical level of 1300. The US NFP number has put things more perspectively for gold traders that the Fed would struggle to increase the interest rate aggressively this year given the current market situation.
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