Weak Ahead: US Dollar in a bullish trend

ECB left rates unchanged as expected. US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker have announced that the eurozone and the US will launch a new round of trade negotiations. 10Y rates spreads suggests investors have positioned for a possible policy twist from the BoJ at the 31 July meeting.

Week Ahead:



Trading within a symmetrical triangle. As shown in the chart the market is targeting the major support (area @ 1.1580/1.1550. If the support holds then we would see a rebound to the 1.1750 resistance area. However, if market successfully breaks the pattern then our target will be 1.1250.



Declining channel still valid. The pair failed to break the upper band of the channel. This has increased the selling pressure on the pair. Market now will target the support area at 1.2920/1.2880.



New buyers have joined the trend and this has increased the buyer's momentum. If the 50-day SMA hold this would result in a bullish signal. The next resistance will be at 112.20/112.50. However, a close below 110.50 level would create more downside risk. Therefore, we may test the level of 109.30.



The risk to break the support at 1212 is high. A break of of 1212 would trigger a move towards 1205/1198.               


Technicals show bullish bias, the price could target 71.10. However, a fail of this move could make the price to test the price level of 68.20. A drop from here is likely to test the next support which is at 65



Bullish bias above 17,750 and markets now will target 13,000s levels.


Dow Jones

The price is testing the upper channel's trend line and a break of this would move the RSI into further overbougt level. As long as the resistance (at 25,720) is not broken, the risk is that the price may move towards the 25,180 level.