- Bank earnings: JPM, GS, BAC, MS and C
- Central banks: RBNZ, BOC and BOJ
- Data: CPI from US, UK and NZ and Chinese GDP among others
After a relatively quiet period in the stock markets, volatility finally spiked this week, leading to a sizeable drop in mid-week followed by an even bigger rebound. On Friday, the S&P 500 broke to a new record peak as it more than made up its losses from mid-week. Crude oil, which had also dropped on the back of OPEC infighting and concerns over rising delta variant of Covid-19, rebounded sharply on Friday. It was risk back on as calm returned to the markets, in part because of China’s moves to bolster its economy with the People’s Bank of China cutting the reserve requirement ratio. Ahead of the weekend and upcoming bank earnings, we may see the markets drift off their best levels on profit-taking and as investors try and make sense of this week’s volatility.
What’s driving the markets?
There are many conflicting signals for investors to deal with, but amid all the noise they still appear happy to do what they have been doing since everything bottomed out in March: buy the dips in stocks.
The latest, and short-lived, dip was provided by worries about tapering of bond purchases by the Fed and other central banks, and as optimism over a sharp global recovery was slowly being replaced by mild fears that growth is nearing a peak.
The PBOC’s move to trim the amount of cash lenders must hold in reserve has eased concerns over major central banks tapering their emergency stimulus measures in the coming months. On top of this, the ECB’s slight change of inflation target to 2% from “close but below 2%” means the central bank will tolerate an inflation overshoot and thus keep its policy loose for even longer. The FOMC’s last meeting minutes revealed officials still felt that substantial further progress on the US economic recovery "was generally seen as not having yet been met."
So, you get the picture, central banks are still likely to keep their respective policies loose. And although rising cases of the delta variant of Covid-19 has weighed on the recovery prospects, this only increases the likelihood of low rates and more QE for longer. Still, it is worth watching bonds as the recent drop in yields is indicative of some investors re-thinking the reflation trade.
How will markets react in week ahead?
After the latest spike in volatility was quickly followed by calm, we could very well see some further upside on Monday, before the focus turns to the upcoming macro events and company earnings. Individual stocks, especially in the banking sector, should move sharply as investors respond to the quarterly results of Wall Street giants. Later in the week, the stock market rally may fade should yields resume lower again, after the US 10-year finally found support at 1.25% after several down days. This is the key risk facing investors in the week ahead, in my view. There are plenty of triggers for this, including US CPI, Chinese GDP and company earnings and guidance (see calendar below).
Bank earnings unlikely to repeat Q1 performance
The major US banks will report their quarterly earnings results in the coming week (see below). After a very positive first quarter, lenders may very well struggle to top those numbers in Q2. Indeed, Wall Street analysts on average expect EPS and revenue to decline from levels seen in the first quarter. Still, with the Covid-19 vaccinations having been ramped up and the economy recovering stronger than expected, don’t expect to see many disappointments either. In fact, it is quite possible that with lowered expectations, banks might be able to beat consensus, though probably not like Q1 style. One source of surprise in Q1 was the release of large reserves that some lenders had previously stowed away for loan losses that didn't materialize. Expect the banks to release more such funds as the impact of the pandemic was largely offset by significant intervention from the government and the Federal Reserve. The quieter market conditions in Q2 means profits from trading operations will most likely be lower than in Q1 for US banks.
Macro calendar and earnings highlights
Tuesday
- Data: Chinese trade figures and US CPI
- Earnings: JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and PepsiCo
Wednesday
- Central bank policy decisions: RBNZ and BOC
- Data: UK CPI, Eurozone industrial production, US PPI and Canadian manufacturing sales
- Earnings: Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock
Thursday
- Aussie employment report and Chinese GDP, industrial production and retail sales
- UK average earnings and jobless claims
- US industrial production, jobless claims and a few other macro pointers
- Earnings: Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp and the Bank of New York Mellon
Friday
- BoJ policy decision
- Data: New Zealand CPI, Canadian retail sales and US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (UoM)
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