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Posted by Naeem Aslam | 28/11/2017 08:42
Investors over in Europe have shrugged off their concerns about the lower energy and mining stocks which pulled the Asian markets lower. The Bank of England released its stress test results and the news was encouraging for most of the banks except Barclays and RBS. Both banks arose as the weakest lenders in the UK under the unfavourable stress test scenarios. This is going to make matters tough for these banks to reinstate the dividend which they were eager to do so for some time.
The BOE applied a lot more stringent measures this year in its test (given the massive loss of currency value, consumer credit losses and the departure of the UK from the EU). The bank of England does reason that none of the UK banks would need to take any remedial actions. The banking system is robust enough to face the loss of £350 billion loss and it can still provide lending to consumers. The other five major UK banks (HSBC, Standard Charted, Nationwide, Lloyds banking group and Santander UK) have a lot to sing about the results because their capital levels remained above the minimum required limit during the stress test.
The governor of the Bank of England thinks that the Fintech innovation opens the UK banking system to risk. Basically, with Brexit on the table, technological innovation could see a massive downturn in the UK and the banks which are leaving the UK would use whatever they could to sustain their business. Therefore, the UK government should keep London as the hub of technological advancement. The government should also make the Brexit transition process smoother and provide clear and concise information for the banks to sustain their business.
Sterling needs to break out if it's consolidation which is between the level of 1.29-1.34 against the dollar. Irish border issue is testing Theresa May and her abilities to think outside the box. However, for the time being, she has decided to dodge the bullet. It appears she doesn't have abilities to persuade her coalition partner to postpone and hasn't made any progress in making a coalition
For the US dollar, the affair which matters the most is the view of the upcoming Federal Reserve's chairperson on inflation. Jerome Powell would have a Senate confirmation during the US trading hours and traders are going to gauge the amount of interest rate hikes for the next year based on his view of the economy and inflation. The dollar index has been on a downtrend throughout this year while the Fed has tightened the screws around its monetary policy- a trade which many didn't see coming this way. The biggest question for investors would be if this trend is going to continue next year?
The heavyweight champions of OPEC are going to decide about extending the production cut during their meeting this week. It is widely anticipated that they are going to extend the production cut despite the fact that currently, Russia doesn't appear to be on the same page as other. The message that they need give to the market is that they are firmly behind their commitment and if the situation demands, they would be willing to extend the production cut beyond 2018. This kind of united front and the strong message would have the ability to push the crude price beyond $60 mark.
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