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Week Ahead: 13 September 2021

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 10/09/2021
Week Ahead: 13 September 2021 Week Ahead: 13 September 2021
Week Ahead: 13 September 2021 Fawad Razaqzada
The week ahead features CPI and retail sales reports from the US and UK, as well as some market moving data from the likes of China (retail sales and industrial production), Australia (employment report) and New Zealand (GDP). FX traders should be kept busy. Seen the macroeconomic highlights below. In the week that is about to end, investors bought dollars at the start of the week, before selling it towards the end of the week, leaving the dollar index slightly positive at the time of writing. Similar moves were observed in the bond market, with yields rising initially before dipping towards the end of the week. Stock indices also bounced off their lows as we headed towards the weekend.
 
Helping sentiment was news on Thursday that US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a phone call. This led to speculation of truce between the two nations, after relations had come under significant strain under the Trump administration. The Chinese yuan rallied, which helped to provide tailwind support to other EM currencies, as well as the Aussie and Kiwi dollars.
 
The fact that ECB was adamant that the reduced purchases under the PEPP was merely a “recalibration” rather than a “taper,” eased concerns about central bank stimulus being reduced.
 
Earlier in the week, the market had taken a more cautious turn in its analysis of global economic data, the tone of global central banks on when stimulus will be retracted, and ongoing uncertainty caused by the Delta variant of Covid. This had left the markets in limbo, leading to directionless prices for stocks, crude oil and foreign currencies. Some of the major US and other global indices struggled, albeit they didn’t retreat too far from their recent all-time highs, while some indices like the Japanese Nikkei have had another good week.
 
Overall, it appears as though the markets’ analysis of upcoming risks have become rather hazy as there are many unknowns. Watching some stocks reach fresh all-time highs, while the bottom drops out for some, this market requires caution before any major decisions are made. Selective stock picking will require thorough analysis. Buying dips in this market should not be the default setting as the market conditions have rightly changed – at least for now.

Indeed, a couple of major global indices have broken their long-term bullish trend lines, suggesting that perhaps the market is turning lower. Here, for example, is how the daily chart of the Dow looks like:

dow
Source: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com

Incoming data releases will be scrutinised closely going forward. After a long time, the FX markets are once again becoming data dependant as investors are trying to figure out which central bank is comparatively becoming more hawkish as we life continues to slowly turn back to normalcy.
 
 
Macroeconomic highlights
 
Tuesday
  • UK earnings and jobless claims
  • US CPI
Wednesday
  • Chinese retail sales and industrial production
  • UK CPI
  • US data dump - Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production among others
Thursday
  • New Zealand GDP
  • Australia employment report
  • US retail sales, jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index
Friday
  • UK retail sales and consumer inflation expectations index
  • US UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
×
Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
×
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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