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The calm before the Powell storm?

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 27/08/2021
The calm before the Powell storm? The calm before the Powell storm?
The calm before the Powell storm? Fawad Razaqzada
…Or the calm before… even calmer conditions?
 
Jerome Powell’s much anticipated speech is now just hours away, and the markets are not moving much at all as traders continue to sit on their hands. So, what do we expect to hear from the Fed Chair?
 
At best, Powell may offer us the clearest indication yet that tapering the $120 billion QE programme will start before the end of the year, without providing a definitive plan. At worst, he will say nothing new and wait until the FOMC’s meeting in September to provide a tapering timeline.
 
Now if he does provide us some idea when tapering will start and in what shape, the challenge for Powell would be not to scare the markets by inadvertently implying that the conclusion of tapering will herald an immediate lift off in interest rates. He needs to manage expectations without being too vague. I am sure he will use the rising cases of delta to buy himself a bit of time, in any case.
 
However, if he appears uncharacteristically hawkish then we could see some significant volatility as investors wake up to the reality that this may be the start of the end of the massive stimulus programme. In this potential scenario, which is not our base case, we could see yields jump, causing the dollar to rip and stocks could break down.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
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Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
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Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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