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Week Ahead Preview 5th of December

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 05/12/2022
Week Ahead Preview 5th of December Week Ahead Preview 5th of December
Week Ahead Preview 5th of December Mahmoud Alkudsi
Investors’ attention will be shifted away from the US this week as markets expect two major central banks’ rates decisions with the ECB president Lagarde’s speech.
 
The NFP report released on Friday revealed that the US economy added more than the expected number of 200K jobs as the actual figure for November came at 236K jobs, the unemployment rate stabilized as expected at 3.7%, while the average hourly earnings for November 5.1% came in higher than expected of 4.6%. This data highlighted that the Fed needs to do more work to push inflation back to the 2% boundary.
 
On the other side of the pond, the EU sanctioned Russia by setting a price cap on its seaborne oil at $60 a barrel, while Russia warned of a possible output reduction as a response to this sanction. Nonetheless, this update’s effect was muted on the oil price as markets already anticipated such a move. On the other hand, oil traders will follow the Chinese Covid-Zero policy in terms of its effect on the country’s demand, especially after last week’s unexpected protests.  
 
The US dollar extended losses last week on the Fed’s chair’s statements of a possible moderation of the rate hike pace as soon as December combined with the Personal Consumption Expenditure's numbers (the Fed's favorite data to measure inflation) of October that came in line with expectations of 5% falling from previous data at 5.2%. As a result, commodities such as gold rallied by 2.5% and most of the US major indices closed in the green on Friday.
 
   
Economic data highlights 
 
Monday 5th of December 
 
  • EUR- Global Services PMI Final (NOV)
  • GBP- Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Final (NOV)
  • EUR- Retail Sales (OCT)
  • USD- Global Services PMI Final (NOV)
  • USD- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (NOV)
 
Tuesday 6th of December 
 
  • RBA Interest Rate Decision
  • GBP-Retail Sales (NOV)
  • CAD-Balance of Trade (OCT)
  • ZAR- GDP Growth Rate Q3
 
Wednesday 7th of December  
 
  • AUD -GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
  • CHF- Unemployment Rate (NOV)
  • EUR- GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
  • BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • ZAR- Foreign Exchange Reserves (NOV)
 
Thursday 8th of December 
 
  • JPY- GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
  • ECB President Lagarde’s Speech
  • ZAR- Current Account Q3
  • ZAR- Manufacturing Production (OCT)
 
Friday 9th of December  
 
  • CNH-Inflation Rate (NOV)
  • USD-PPI (NOV)
  • USD- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (DEC)
  
Central Banks Rates Decisions
 
 The RBA board will meet this week to decide on monetary policy and while the Australian inflation levels remain elevated (CPI headline at 7.3% Q3-2022) it’s highly likely to see the central bank hiking rates in its upcoming meeting by 25 bp taking the current rate from 2.85% to 3.10%.
  
The Bank of Canada is likely to hike rates in its upcoming meeting for the same reason (controlling high inflation levels combined with a tight labor market). Therefore, the central bank may hike rates by 50bp taking the cash rates from 3.75% to 4.25%.
 
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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