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The South Africa Market today 19/10/2021

Kearabilwe Nonyana Kearabilwe Nonyana 19/10/2021
The South Africa Market today 19/10/2021 The South Africa Market today 19/10/2021
The South Africa Market today 19/10/2021 Kearabilwe Nonyana
The South African Markets in Focus

The market continues to be a plethora of contradictions. Last week saw gains for risk assets globally and our local bourse benefited in the backdrop there are concerns of a rising inflation path which threatens global economic recovery as supply side shocks of energy which powers the economies push the price of energy commodities higher. The northern hemisphere is in the grips of a cold winter, and they are also faced with a shortage of natural gas, diesel distillates and thermal coal for electricity generation. This poses a threat to short to medium term inflation which could force global central banks to start raising rates quicker than what the market anticipated. The market has continued higher in the first few days of the week and the only one economic data point is important the CPI numbers being released by Statistic South Africa.
 
A look at inflation
The pandemic continues to redefine how normative economics have been taught and understood by economists and market participants alike. With record low interest rates and a negative real rate and a higher short to medium term inflation outlook due to sustained high administered prices and higher cost for energy and fuel. We will therefore experience a heighted level of caution being released by the SARB for consumers and business to get ready for a higher interest rate to contain inflation in the target band. The SARB has shown to well that they will move ahead of global interest rate decision and make their decisions to contain our inflation and money supply.



Sasol seasaw

Sasol continues to trade in large ranges and that’s because of its 0.86 correlation coefficient to the Brent crude/South African prices with crude at all time highs and the wide ranges that the rand trades in as a barometer on how market participants view emerging markets. The rand has appreciated in the week on the back of dollar weakness. Sasol is set to release a trading statement on 21st October 2021. With the brent price having increased to above $80/$ the reserve inventory in the US will be watched to better understand if the supply shortages have been replenished and the US has enough diesel distillates for travel and for heating. It will also be good to see if demand has increased in their chemical and fuel business
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
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Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
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Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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