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Trump wins US election: What’s next for the markets?

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Swing states highlighted in red and blue are expected to play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

The 2024 US elections are approaching, bringing not just political but financial shifts. Discover how the elections influence markets and gain valuable strategies to manage volatility. From key campaign dates to the impact on forex, stocks, and more, get the insights you need to trade confidently during this key period.

Swing states highlighted in red and blue are expected to play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

How do the US presidential elections affect the markets?

The US presidential elections have global implications that affect the financial markets. Traders often consider this period as a time of volatility and opportunity.

  • U.S. stocks
  • Forex
  • Commodities

Stock indices

Stock market indices are a quick way to trade around the U.S. presidential election. While the typical annual return for the S&P 500 is 10%, it slightly dips to 9.1% during election years due to heightened uncertainty. From 1950 to November 2023, return in election years has swung between -40% and +30%.  However, the S&P 500's typical return isn't influenced by who’s in power; the return is pretty much the same independently of whether a Democrat or Republican is leading the country. Even better for markets is a divided Congress, which tends to deliver the best annual returns of 13.6%. This could be because markets prefer stability and fewer significant changes. With this information, savvy traders might use a panic sell-off and technical analysis to buy dips, given that everything else remains unchanged.


Market impact of proposed policies: Trump vs. Harris Market impact of proposed policies: Trump vs. Harris 
S&P 500S&P 500
Nasdaq 100Nasdaq 100

Access key insights with our video guide!

Tune in to market expert Alejandro Zambrano as he explains the potential market impacts of the upcoming US elections.

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How did the previous US elections affect the markets?

While it’s impossible to accurately predict how the markets would react to the 2024 US elections, we have past data that we can use to analyse and identify patterns in.

Check out how the markets reacted during the previous US elections by using our exclusive backtesting tool, Traders’ Gym. Simply log in to ThinkTrader Web to access real historical data on the market movements of up to 4,000 instruments before, during, and after the US elections.

While past performance does not guarantee future returns, it can be considered as a reliable indicator of how the markets could potentially react.