How do the US presidential elections affect the markets?
The US presidential elections have global implications that affect the financial markets. Traders often consider this period as a time of volatility and opportunity.
Stock indices
Stock market indices are a quick way to trade around the U.S. presidential election. While the typical annual return for the S&P 500 is 10%, it slightly dips to 9.1% during election years due to heightened uncertainty. From 1950 to November 2023, return in election years has swung between -40% and +30%. However, the S&P 500's typical return isn't influenced by who’s in power; the return is pretty much the same independently of whether a Democrat or Republican is leading the country. Even better for markets is a divided Congress, which tends to deliver the best annual returns of 13.6%. This could be because markets prefer stability and fewer significant changes. With this information, savvy traders might use a panic sell-off and technical analysis to buy dips, given that everything else remains unchanged.
Market impact of proposed policies: Trump vs. Harris
S&P 500
Nasdaq 100
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