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Best Indicators for Swing Trading Every Trader Should Know

Best Indicators for Swing Trading Every Trader Should Know

<p>Trading is no easy feat, as many types of traders lose their capital. However, indicators for swing trading help traders achieve annual returns of 17.50%, according to Tim Morris&rsquo;s book &quot;The 97% Swing Trade&quot;.</p> &nbsp; <p>The best indicators for swing trading should enable every trader to identify market phases, time entry and exit points, and manage risks effectively. What makes swing trading indicators particularly solid is their ability to filter out noise and reveal meaningful swing patterns that last not too long nor too short.</p> &nbsp; <p>One effective approach is to combine trend, momentum, and volume indicators into a complete strategy. Not all types or combinations work, but a thoughtful system can provide an all-around view of market sentiment.</p> &nbsp; <p>In this article:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>What they are and the best technical indicators for swing trading</li> <li>How to combine swing trading technical indicators for high-probability setups</li> <li>Common mistakes to avoid</li> <li>A step-by-step methodology to implement swing trading strategies</li> </ul> &nbsp; <div> <style type="text/css">.didyouknow { display: block; background: #F1FDf0; width: 600px; border-radius: 20px; gap: 20px; padding-top: 48px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 48px; padding-left: 40px; font-family: Figtree; font-weight: 600; font-size: 22px; line-height: 140%; letter-spacing: 0%; } </style> </div> <div class="didyouknow">Start testing your swing trading system for <a href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual/demo/?lang=en" target="_blank">free</a>!</div> <h2>What are swing trading indicators</h2> <p>Swing trading indicators are technical analysis tools that help traders spot meaningful price swings lasting from a few days to a few weeks. Unlike <a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/day-trade/">day trading</a> indicators (intraday focus) or position trading indicators (long-term focus), swing indicators are tuned for the medium term.</p> &nbsp; <p>What makes trading challenging is spotting turning points, in particular. These basic indicators for swing trading help analyse the market structure by identifying trends, trend reversals, and <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/continuation-candlestick-patterns/">trend continuation patterns</a>. They are attuned to medium-term movements and not to minor price movements, ignoring short-term noise and offer a picture of broader market sentiment.</p> &nbsp; <p>Here&rsquo;s a table to understand when swing indicators may be used based on the <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/method-to-analyse/">trading method</a>:</p> <p><img alt="Swing Trading Indicators vs. Day Trading Indicators vs. Position Trading Indicators (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/c62888f1-923c-4e20-b1f1-71e4940ebaf8/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Swing-trading-Best-Indicators-to-Trade-Dead-Cat-Bounce-ThinkMarkets.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Types of Indicator Characteristics for Different Trading Styles</p> &nbsp; <p>When it comes to swing trading success, specialised sets of indicators are designed to cover different market phases.</p> <h2>Types of swing trading indicators</h2> <p>Swing trading indicators come in various sizes and shapes, and they can be grouped into four major categories, each revealing an aspect of market dynamics.</p> <p><img alt="Types of Swing Trading Indicators (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/d913210e-2dd5-48ea-b215-a6549856f3df/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Swing-trading-Trend-Reversal-Turns-into-Trend-Continuation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-1.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Core Swing Trading Indicator Types</p> &nbsp; <ol> <li><strong>Trend Indicators:</strong> They help reveal the overall direction of the market and the strength of a trend.</li> <li><strong><a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/momentum-indicator/">Momentum Indicators</a>: </strong>They measure the rate of price change and identify when a market is gaining or losing steam. Also known as oscillators, they may highlight reversal points and divergences that signal shifts in sentiment.</li> <li><strong>Volatility Indicators:</strong> These measure the amplitude of price variation and help traders read market conditions. They can be used for position sizing and <a href="/en/trading-academy/cfds/risk-management-tools-in-cfd-trading/">risk management</a>.</li> <li><strong>Volume Indicators:</strong> They confirm price movements by measuring market interest and distinguishing between genuine and false moves.</li> </ol> &nbsp; <p>Below are the most popular indicators for swing trading:</p> <p><img alt="Best Indicators for Swing Trading (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/8a9b2afa-99c8-4c74-9caa-dd09bb940caa/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Swing-trading-ZigZag-Trend-Continuation-Short-Trade-with-MACD-Confirmation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-2.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Popular Swing Trading Indicators by Type</p> &nbsp; <p>Swing trading signals can tell a logical story about the market that is unfolding right in front of traders&rsquo; charts. Let&rsquo;s explore what makes them valuable.</p> &nbsp; <p>Discover the <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/trend-trading-indicators-for-forex/">top 10 trend trading indicators</a> and what signals they generate in forex here.</p> <h2>Why traders use swing trading indicators</h2> <p>Swing trading indicators help traders avoid being on the wrong side of the market and manage their risk in a rational manner. Successful swing traders use them to identify trends, time entries and exits, manage risk and quantify sentiment.</p> <p><img alt="Why Indicators Work in Swing Trading (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/b3f27836-98d7-4986-b2ed-3825f4096c22/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Swing-trading-ZigZag-Trend-Continuation-Short-Trade-with-MACD-Confirmation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-1.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Reasons Traders Use Swing Trading Indicators</p> &nbsp; <p>Let&rsquo;s take a closer look at each of these points.</p> <h3>1. Identify trends</h3> <p>The primary reason swing traders rely on these indicators is to identify the prevailing market direction. As the saying goes, &ldquo;the trend is your friend&rdquo;, and swing trading indicators help determine in which way the market swings: up, down or sideways.</p> &nbsp; <p>Filtering out market noise is also important to stay on the right side of the market. A strong trend reading on multiple indicators can help traders maintain conviction.</p> &nbsp; <p>Understanding the underlying trend strength is equally important. Strong trends are more likely to continue, while weaker ones may lead to reversals. Divergence between price action and indicators can be used to reveal turning points.</p> <h3>2. Time entries and exit points</h3> <p>Precise and reasonable trade entries and exits can be set using swing trading indicators. For example, trend indicators confirm the direction of the move and offer dynamic <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/support-resistance/">support or resistance</a>. On the other hand, momentum indicators show extreme levels or signs of fatigue, suggesting potential reversal points.</p> &nbsp; <p>Traders often look for confluence between multiple indicators, such as an oversold RSI in conjunction with the price bouncing off an SMA, which suggests exhaustion of selling pressure near key support.</p> <h3>3. Manage risk</h3> <p>Risk management is essential for swing trading, as it is for any trading style. No successful trader uses arbitrary exits when a trade goes south. In this type of trading, <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/technical-indicators-beginners-guide/">technical indicators</a> for swing trading can determine appropriate stop-losses based on the market&rsquo;s natural ebbs and flows. If it says that the trend is reversing, traders may want to reduce their exposure.</p> &nbsp; <p>Volatility indicators help set logical exit points where a swing trade idea would become invalid without being subject to whipsaws. As such, position size is a by-product, as low volatility may warrant a larger position.</p> <h3>4. Quantify sentiment</h3> <p>Reversals are the most challenging and rewarding market phases as previous emotions are overturned. Swing indicators offer a quantitative approach to market psychology with measurable data and help traders spot those extreme levels.</p> &nbsp; <p>Divergence is a prime example of the psychological drivers behind price movements. When momentum fades despite a rising price, sentiment may be shifting. This early warning enables traders to reposition themselves.</p> &nbsp; <div> <style type="text/css">.didyouknow { display: block; background: #F1FDf0; width: 600px; border-radius: 20px; gap: 20px; padding-top: 48px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 48px; padding-left: 40px; font-family: Figtree; font-weight: 600; font-size: 22px; line-height: 140%; letter-spacing: 0%; } </style> </div> <div class="didyouknow">Add swing indicators and test your entries and exit risk-free with <a href="/en/traders-gym/" target="_blank">Traders Gym</a>!</div> <h2>How swing traders use technical indicators</h2> <p>In a practical sense, the following are some typical examples of how swing traders incorporate technical indicators into their <a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/popular-forex-trading-strategies/">trading strategies</a>.</p> <h3>Identifying support and resistance levels</h3> <p>Swing trading <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/what-is-technical-analysis-in-trading/">technical analysis</a> reveals dynamic price levels, as opposed to horizontal lines or trendlines. For instance, moving averages serve as dynamic support during rallies and resistance during sell-offs. When the price approaches these levels, traders pay special attention to market reactions.</p> &nbsp; <p>Bollinger Bands are another option to discover dynamic areas. The upper band acts as resistance during uptrends while the lower band provides support during pullbacks.</p> <h3>Setting targets and stop-losses</h3> <p>Some technical indicators help identify points where a swing trade idea becomes invalid due to changing market conditions. As a result, exit points are defined in a logical way. For trend indicators, targets can be placed naturally below significant resistance levels, while trailing stops should be at a few pips below dynamic support.</p> &nbsp; <p>Volatility-based stop losses are helpful because they factor in swing structure in setups. The ATR is a good pick, with traders placing stops at 1 to 2 times the ATR value to account for normal volatility.</p> &nbsp; <p>Another way to identify targets is by assessing the magnitude of the current movement. Overbought/sold conditions from oscillators or upper/lower boundaries of Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels may suggest limited room in the swing direction. This is especially true after an extended rally/drop, and traders should consider locking in their profits.</p> &nbsp; <p>Finally, the parabolic SAR provides trailing stop functionality. As the price rises in the trader&#39;s favour, the dots move closer beneath, refreshing the stop level.</p> <h3>Multiple timeframe analysis</h3> <p>Using both high and low timeframes helps traders gain conviction in their idea and precision in their execution. This ensures swing trades are in line with the dominant trend and captures short-term retracement opportunities.</p> &nbsp; <p>For instance, the daily chart would provide the overall direction using the 30-day EMA. As the price climbs steadily along the average, pullback opportunities may be found on the 4-hour chart with the RSI sinking into oversold territory.</p> &nbsp; <p>Traders should be mindful of incorporating higher timeframes into their strategies, as they must never lose sight of the broader trend. Seeing the bigger picture can significantly increase the odds of success.</p> &nbsp; <p>You can start with the default settings, as they represent time-tested parameters optimised for general market conditions, allowing you to focus on interpreting swing trade alerts.</p> &nbsp; <p>From strategy design to practical execution, technical indicators for swing trading should be part of every swing trader&#39;s toolbox. What if they could combine the quality of each type of indicator?</p> <h2>Best swing trading indicator combinations</h2> <p>Using multiple indicators helps assess the market in all its aspects: swing trend phase, momentum strength and volatility range. Here are some top indicator combinations that put the odds in the trader&rsquo;s favour.</p> &nbsp; <p>The most robust swing trading ideas combine several indicators which offer confirmation from different sources. Divergences between price and oscillator provide powerful reversal signals, and breakouts accompanied by momentum acceleration tend to be sustainable.</p> <p><img alt="Best Swing Indicator Combination in Trading (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/a7c57782-16cb-4f7c-8271-597c08238358/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Swing-trading-Trend-Reversal-Turns-into-Trend-Continuation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-1-1.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Best Swing Trading Indicator Combinations</p> <h3>MA + RSI: price convergence, divergence</h3> <p>One of the most popular and straightforward combinations is the use of moving averages for swing trading, complemented by momentum confirmation.</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Setup:</strong> Price pulls back to the MA in an uptrend, and the RSI shows oversold conditions near 30. This tandem offers excellent risk-reward ratios as the moving average acts as dynamic support.</li> <li><strong>Execution:</strong> Entry near the MA support. Scale exit as the RSI reaches overbought levels, or when the price invalidates the MA.</li> </ul> <h3>Price + Stochastic: momentum divergence</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Price + Stochastic:</strong> This setup combines price action with a momentum indicator like Stochastic to identify reversals.</li> <li><strong>Setup:</strong> In a bullish scenario, the price makes a lower low whilst the Stochastic makes a higher low, indicating weakening selling pressure.</li> <li><strong>Execution:</strong> Wait for the price to break into a new swing high, which would indicate renewed buying interests. Place stops just beyond the recent swing low.</li> </ul> <h3>Bollinger band + MACD: rebound momentum</h3> <p>Designed to catch reversals and ride the next trend and assess its strength.</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Setup:</strong> Price touches the lower Bollinger Band and MACD shows bullish divergence (price making lower lows but MACD making higher lows) or the MACD line crosses above the signal line.</li> <li><strong>Execution:</strong> Entry as the price bounces back from the lower band, especially with a solid bullish candlestick. Set stop loss below the recent low outside the band.</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Besides indicators, strategies can benefit from complementary swing trading tools.</p> &nbsp; <div> <style type="text/css">.didyouknow { display: block; background: #F1FDf0; width: 600px; border-radius: 20px; gap: 20px; padding-top: 48px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 48px; padding-left: 40px; font-family: Figtree; font-weight: 600; font-size: 22px; line-height: 140%; letter-spacing: 0%; } </style> </div> <div class="didyouknow">Backtest your own swing trading indicator combinations in live trading conditions for <a href="/en/traders-gym/" target="_blank">free</a>!</div> <h2>Top swing trading tools</h2> <p>Many swing trading tools can be used in conjunction with other indicators and help traders make informed decisions. They may find confidence in alignment that confirms a specific pattern and avoid low-probability setups that show contradiction.</p> <h3>Price action breakouts</h3> <p>Breakouts can be combined with several indicators to confirm a swing trend or a potential swing structure reversal.</p> &nbsp; <p>Key patterns include:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Horizontal lines, psychological levels</li> <li><strong>Dynamic lines:</strong> trendlines and moving averages</li> <li>Fibonacci retracement levels</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>When price breakouts occur at the time indicator signals are flashing, they can reveal high-probability setups. On the other hand, fakeouts often occur due to a lack of confirmation in swing trading technical indicators, such as volume or momentum indicators.</p> <h3>Candlestick and chart patterns for swing trading</h3> <p><a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/using-candlestick-patterns-in-forex-day-trading/">Candlestick</a> and chart patterns provide technical context for swing signals, helping traders understand swing structure. Volatility, momentum and trading volume gauges can foreshadow price moves that last.</p> &nbsp; <p>Key patterns include:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Indecision:</strong> Dojis, <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/single-candlestick-patterns-a-guide-for-day-trading/">spinning tops</a></li> <li><strong>Reversal:</strong> Double tops/bottoms, <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/head-and-shoulders-pattern/">head and shoulders</a>, hammers, <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/using-double-candlestick-patterns-in-day-trading/">engulfing candles</a></li> <li><strong>Continuation:</strong> Flags and pennants</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Indicators would confirm the market phase here. For example, a <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/doji-candlestick-pattern/">doji</a> at the bottom of a recent sell-off alongside an RSI exhibiting oversold conditions can be seen as a sign of exhaustion. Or when a bearish divergence is followed by engulfing red candles, sellers might have gained control.</p> &nbsp; <p>While swing trading indicators are important, as with all tools, how you use them is more important than the tool itself. Smart traders learn from others&#39; mistakes.</p> &nbsp; <p>Learn all about <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/day-trading-chart-patterns/">day trading chart patterns</a> in our forex guide</p> <h2>Mistakes to avoid with swing trading indicators</h2> <p>Trading has a steep learning curve, and traders should beware of pitfalls when adapting new indicators to their swing trading strategy. Some of the biggest mistakes are examined below.</p> <p><img alt="Swing Trading Indicator Mistakes (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/c7b62dac-0500-48c5-b9c5-0c91416dee8a/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Swing-trading-Zig-Zag-Trend-Continuation-Short-Trade-with-MACD-Confirmation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-3.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Common Mistakes with Swing Indicators</p> <h3>Failure to recognise false signals</h3> <p>False signals represent one of the greatest challenges in swing trading, as they can erode both capital and confidence. Identifying these deceptive swing patterns helps preserve trading capital and discipline.</p> <h3>Relying on single indicators</h3> <p>Placing too much faith in a single indicator can hurt performance, as no indicator fits all market conditions. While oscillators like the RSI may work well in range-bound markets, they have limited use in trending phases, as oversold and overbought become relative.</p> &nbsp; <p>The lack of extra confirmation often leads to false signals. Traders should seek confirmation from two or more different indicator types before entering positions.</p> <h3>Overcomplicating trading strategies</h3> <p>Some traders fall into the trap of using too many indicators, creating cluttered charts that even the best swing trading strategies can handle. This &quot;analysis paralysis&quot; generates conflicting signals and prevents timely trade execution.</p> &nbsp; <p>Traders should keep charts clean with no more than 5 indicators of different types that complement each other. For example, momentum indicators (RSI, Stochastic, and Williams %R) measure the same thing - traders just need to pick one.</p> <h3>Ignoring market context</h3> <p>Using the same indicator across all conditions produces more noise than actionable signals. Trading bullish signals on hourly timeframes when the daily trend is bearish is a recipe for disaster.</p> &nbsp; <p>Check the underlying market context and higher timeframes beforehand. 3-4 indicators that offer perspectives on trend, momentum and volatility help examine the market from different angles.</p> <h3>Chasing lagging signals</h3> <p>Lagging indicators confirm what has already happened rather than predicting future moves. Many traders chase signals after significant moves, entering positions at poor risk-reward levels. Buying at a golden MA cross when the price has already moved substantially is a textbook mistake.</p> &nbsp; <p>Combine lagging indicators with leading ones. Divergences offer early warning signs before the market turns. Use price action as real-time confirmation for swift reactions.</p> <h3>Over-optimising</h3> <p>Some traders tweak indicator settings to produce perfect results on past data. This practice, known as curve fitting, creates a false sense of confidence, as markets are in constant motion. Strategies that worked historically may fail in today&#39;s environment. Go for a balanced approach and pay attention to various market conditions.</p> &nbsp; <p>By steering clear of these mistakes, you can build a strong and logical methodology for trading using swing trading indicators.</p> <h2>How to trade swing trading indicators</h2> <p>Successful swing trading with indicators requires a systematic approach that combines technical analysis with disciplined swing trading risk management.</p> <h3>Step 1: Scan for trading opportunities</h3> <ul> <li>Prepare a watchlist of regularly traded instruments</li> <li>Review broad market conditions per symbol: trend, range or correction</li> <li>Set up a scanner and alerts for key levels or chart pattern breakouts</li> <li>Beware of the upcoming major news</li> </ul> <h3>Step 2: Apply primary indicator</h3> <ul> <li>Apply the primary swing trading indicator to the chart</li> <li>Adjust parameters and sensitivities: e.g. 20 or 50 periods for MAs</li> <li>Configure timeframes that work best for swing trading: 1H, 4H or daily</li> </ul> <h3>Step 3: Add secondary swing indicator</h3> <ul> <li>Layer a complementary indicator for confirmation (oscillator or volume)</li> <li>Watch for confluence between indicators and price action</li> <li><strong>Define clear signals:</strong> MA crosses or oscillator rebound</li> </ul> <h3>Step 4: Assess risk</h3> <ul> <li>Assess volatility with ATR or market structure</li> <li>Calculate appropriate stop-loss (1-2 times ATR or structure-based)</li> <li>Determine position size from the stop distance and account size (e.g. 2%)</li> <li>Set initial target (1:2 RR ratio)</li> </ul> <h3>Step 5: Execute trade or set pending orders</h3> <ul> <li>Use market orders for immediate execution</li> <li>Use limit orders to control entry price, especially for larger lots</li> <li>Attach stops and targets to remove emotional trading</li> </ul> <h3>Step 6: Manage swing trade</h3> <ul> <li>Monitor indicators and prepare for potential reversals</li> <li>Move the stop to breakeven as the profit matches the risk</li> <li>Use trailing stops based on indicators (Parabolic SAR, MAs or structure-based)</li> <li>Close positions when indicators show exhaustion or opposite signals</li> <li>Review signals and the trade in a post-trade analysis</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Now, let&rsquo;s apply this practical advice to real market conditions.</p> <h2>Swing trade example with indicators - XAUUSD Jan 25</h2> <p>In the swing trading chart below for XAUUSD, we apply the above methodology and a brief analysis to showcase this structured approach.</p> <h3>Initial setup</h3> <ul> <li>Timeframes 4H and 1H</li> <li><strong>Primary indicator:</strong> 50-SMA</li> <li><strong>Secondary indicator:</strong> RSI</li> <li><strong>Confirmation:</strong> Volume</li> </ul> <h3>Swing trade analysis</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Price action:</strong> On the daily chart, the precious metal enters a consolidation phase following a recent all-time high. The bias remains bullish and the trader awaits continuation signals. The 4H chart breaks above the double tops at $2720, suggesting renewed buying interest.</li> <li><strong>Indicators:</strong> The price follows a rising <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/sma-indicator/">SMA</a> and the latest pullback stops at the moving average. The 4H and 1H RSIs go neutral and below 30, respectively. Volume shows a steady buildup and a surge the next day, confirming the momentum.</li> </ul> <h3>Trade execution</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Entry:</strong> Two options here: an aggressive swing long at $2740 over the SMA as volatility settles with a doji; or a more conservative <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/order-types/">swing buy</a> at $2785 at the next breakout, further confirmed by volume.</li> <li><strong>Stop-loss:</strong> Below the recent low at $2686 (below the MA)</li> <li><strong>Target: </strong>Initial take-profit at the round number $2846 (1:2 risk-reward ratio)</li> </ul> <p><img alt="Best Trading Platform for Swing Traders (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/9dfa6f1b-bdf5-4f39-8225-c93491361df9/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Swing-trading-ZigZag-Trend-Continuation-Short-Trade-with-MACD-Confirmation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-4.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Swing Trading Indicator Strategy, SMA + RSI + Volumes - Gold, 4H Chart</p> <h3>Trade management</h3> <ul> <li>Move stop-loss to breakeven as price moves to $2792 at (1:1 risk-reward ratio)</li> <li>Lift stop-loss to recent low at $2770 as price moves to $2846 (1:2 risk-reward ratio)</li> <li>Trail stops below the SMA</li> <li>The RSI shows overbought and bearish divergence with the price in the 2940 area</li> <li>Exit remaining positions at $2910 as price breaks below the SMA with $170 profits per ounce</li> </ul> <h3>Lessons learnt</h3> <ul> <li>Multiple indicators work in tandem with the prevailing trend</li> <li>1H chart provides a granular entry point when RSI shows sell exhaustion</li> <li>Final exit consistent with the indicator&rsquo;s divergence and price breakout</li> </ul> &nbsp; <div> <style type="text/css">.didyouknow { display: block; background: #F1FDf0; width: 600px; border-radius: 20px; gap: 20px; padding-top: 48px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 48px; padding-left: 40px; font-family: Figtree; font-weight: 600; font-size: 22px; line-height: 140%; letter-spacing: 0%; } </style> </div> <div class="didyouknow">Ready to implement a structured approach to swing trading? Open an account <a href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual/?lang=en" target="_blank">now</a>!</div> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>Trading indicators for swing trading are important for navigating complex market movements, providing traders with quantitative tools to identify potential trading opportunities within different market phases.</p> &nbsp; <p>The key to swing trade success lies not in tweaking for the perfect indicator but in understanding how different swing trade signals complement each other and developing a systematic approach to their application. Trend, momentum, volatility and volume help see through the market. Swing traders should remember that:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Swing trading technical indicators provide meaningful insights into market sentiment</li> <li>They are most effective as part of a combined, technical-focused strategy</li> <li>They offer valuable guidance on proper risk management</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Consistent application of these indicators, combined with discipline, will serve traders far better than searching for the next perfect signal. But as with any trading approach, swing trading involves the risk of losing your capital.</p>

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ADX Indicator: How it Works, Trend Strength Signals & Trading Strategies

ADX Indicator: How it Works, Trend Strength Signals & Trading Strategies

<p>The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a popular trend momentum indicator used as a technical analysis tool in forex in order to trade trend continuations.</p> &nbsp; <p>Unlike directional trend trading indicators, the ADX indicator specifically quantifies trend strength, allowing traders to determine whether a bullish or bearish trend is likely to continue, stall, or reverse. However, it produces double-digit risk-adjusted returns when trading trends, per quantified strategies.</p> &nbsp; <p>Whether a beginner trend trader learning the forex technical indicator or an experienced one fine-tuning their trend-following strategy, the ADX trend strength indicator can be a powerful trading tool to add to your arsenal.</p> &nbsp; <p>In this article, we aim to equip forex traders with the following:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>What the ADX trend trading indicator is</li> <li>How the forex technical indicator works</li> <li>Trading signals generated by the ADX</li> <li>Why the ADX indicator matters for trend signals</li> <li>Different ADX indicator strategies</li> <li>Real examples using the forex indicator</li> <li>Limitations and considerations of the trend indicator</li> </ul> <h2>What is the Average Directional Index</h2> <p>The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a lagging indicator that measures the strength of a trend on a scale of 0 to 100, used to confirm established trends rather than predict new ones. Unlike other trend oscillators that focus on the direction of the trend, the ADX quantifies the strength of the trend, regardless of whether the trend is bullish or bearish.</p> &nbsp; <p>J. Welles Wilder introduced the ADX in his 1978 book &#39;New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems&#39;, originally a component of his broader Directional Movement Index (DMI) system, which includes the ADX line and the directional +DI and -DI lines. While the ADX measures trend strength, the +DI and -DI show trend direction, often displayed as a complete system, as they work as complementary parts of a trend analysis system.</p> &nbsp; <p>To add the ADX <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/technical-indicators-beginners-guide/">trend trading indicator</a>, aka ADX line, to your ThinkMarkets chart, navigate to the indicators menu, type &#39;ADX&#39; and select &quot;Average Directional Index&quot;</p> <p><img alt="ADX Indicator (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/c833e394-1432-4505-8ac5-55e9698a9cc7/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-ZigZag-Indicator-on-GBPUSD-1D-chart-ThinkMarkets-TradingView.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">ADX Chart, ThinkMarkets TradingView</p> <h2>How the ADX Works</h2> <p>The ADX momentum indicator consists of one main component that measures trend strength. However, it is typically displayed alongside two directional components that are not shown but still used in the calculations:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>ADX line:</strong> Represents trend strength by measuring the absolute difference between +DI and -DI lines, displayed as a smoothed moving average. This is the actual ADX indicator itself.</li> <li><strong>+DI (Positive Directional Indicator):</strong> Compares today&#39;s high with yesterday&#39;s high. If today&#39;s high exceeds yesterday&#39;s, the +DI line moves up.</li> <li><strong>-DI (Negative Directional Indicator):</strong> Compares today&#39;s low with yesterday&#39;s low. If today&#39;s low is lower, the -DI line moves down.</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>When analysing charts, trend traders look at the ADX value to determine if there is a strong trend and the +DI and -DI relationship to determine whether that trend is bullish or bearish.</p> &nbsp; <p><a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/adx-indicator/">The default ADX indicator settings</a> of 14 periods work well for most trading scenarios, though this can be adjusted based on your trading timeframe and preferences.</p> &nbsp; <p>Here is an image with the key components of the ADX DMI indicator on default settings (notice the ADX line, plus the directional lines):</p> <p><img alt="ADX DMI Settings (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/f08e06d7-5846-4874-8948-c4e8a5fa85e2/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-ZigZag-Indicator-Settings-on-GBPUSD-1D-chart-ThinkMarkets-TradingView.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Default ADX Indicator Settings (+DI, -DI), EURUSD 1D Chart</p> <h2>ADX Formula Calculation</h2> <p>The ADX calculation involves four steps that transform price movement into a measure of trend strength:</p> &nbsp; <ol> <li><strong>Calculation of the directional movements:</strong><br /> Positive Directional Movement (+DM) = Current High - Previous High (if positive and greater than -DM)<br /> Negative Directional Movement (-DM) = Previous Low - Current Low (if positive and greater than +DM)</li> <li><strong>Wilder&#39;s smoothing using the Average True Range (ATR):</strong><br /> +DI = 100 &times; (Smoothed +DM &divide; ATR)<br /> -DI = 100 &times; (Smoothed -DM &divide; ATR)</li> <li><strong>Directional Index (DX) calculation:</strong><br /> DX = 100 &times; |+DI - -DI| &divide; (+DI + -DI)</li> <li><strong>ADX Calculation as a smoothed average of DX values:</strong><br /> ADX = ((Previous ADX &times; 13) + Current DX) &divide; 14 (for the standard 14-period setting)</li> </ol> &nbsp; <p>Most <a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/what-is-forex-trading/">forex traders</a> can focus more on interpreting the ADX readings rather than calculating them, as trading platforms automatically perform these calculations.</p> <h2>Why Forex Traders Use the Trend Strength Indicator</h2> <p>While useful in forex trading, the ADX momentum indicator performs well across multiple asset classes, making it a cornerstone technical analysis tool for multi-market traders who need reliable trend strength measurement across their entire portfolio.</p> &nbsp; <p>Here are the main reasons that forex traders should consider the ADX:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Helps Avoid Choppy Market Losses:</strong> It filters out low-momentum, sideways markets, reducing stop-outs from false breakouts or unclear direction</li> <li><strong>Confirms Strong Trends Entry:</strong> It confirms strong trend strength, assuring trend traders they are not entering too early or in a weak move</li> <li><strong>Improves Strategy Accuracy:</strong> It acts as a trend filter, improving strategies like moving average crossovers by triggering trades only when the trend has momentum</li> <li><strong>Enhances Entry and Exit Timing:</strong> It can be used to time entries more effectively, ride trends for longer, and exit at logical points</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Different trading styles benefit from ADX in unique ways. <a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/day-trade/">Day traders</a> might use shorter periods (7-10) on lower timeframes to capture quick momentum shifts, while swing traders typically rely on standard settings (14) to identify multi-day trends.</p> &nbsp; <p>The table below outlines how each primary type of forex trader can use ADX in distinct ways.</p> <p><img alt="ADX Traders (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/1ec616ef-5c0b-4873-bfd2-c54fec978ac0/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-Best-Forex-Indicators-for-Trend-Trading-ThinkMarkets.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Optimal ADX Indicator Settings per Trader Type</p> <h2>How Trend Traders Use ADX</h2> <p>The ADX trend trading indicator alone (the ADX line) shows trend strength based on its position on the 0-100 scale.</p> &nbsp; <p>The table below is a guide on how the ADX works within relevant trading environments and strategy approaches:</p> <p><img alt="Trading the ADX Momentum Indicator (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/ee0a012b-a6a8-47a5-a4a0-a8eefb512992/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-Best-Forex-Indicators-for-Trend-Trading-ThinkMarkets-1.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">How Traders Use the ADX Momentum Indicator</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Note:</strong> A reading above 75 is rare, but the ADX may signal a powerful trend that is likely to reverse soon at such high levels.</p> &nbsp; <p>Below is an example of EURUSD, showing each of the four different ADX stages.</p> <p><img alt="ADX Trend Strength Indicator (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/d74fdb48-8bf0-4f91-8323-b8c2212cdedf/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-Major-Trend-Reversal-Example-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-1.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">ADX Trend Strength Stages, Line Value, EURUSD 1D Chart</p> &nbsp; <p>Trend traders use both the ADX line values and other signals for trading decisions around the strength and direction of a trend.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Tip for Beginner Traders:</strong> When first adding ADX to your charts, start by identifying markets with ADX above 25 or 30, as this setup provides the best environment for learning how the trading indicator responds to strong trending conditions.</p> <h2>ADX Trading Signals</h2> <p>The ADX indicator has the ability to generate several trading signals, allowing traders to identify trend strength, anticipate trend changes, and determine optimal entry and exit points. The four primary signals, when including directional components, are:</p> &nbsp; <ol> <li><strong>Trend strength</strong></li> <li><strong>Directional movement</strong></li> <li><strong>ADX divergence</strong></li> <li><strong>Entry confirmation</strong></li> </ol> &nbsp; <p>Let&rsquo;s look into these separately.</p> <h3>1. ADX Trend Strength</h3> <p>As we have already demonstrated, when the ADX rises above 20-25, it indicates increasing trend strength. This confirms <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/momentum-indicator/">trend momentum</a> and suggests that trend traders should maintain or consider entering positions aligned with the prevailing trend.</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>A rising ADX with an increasing slope signals accelerating momentum, often the strongest phase of trend development.</li> <li>A falling ADX warns of weakening trend momentum and often precedes ranges or trend reversals, suggesting trend traders should tighten stops or begin scaling out of positions.</li> </ul> <h3>2. Directional Movement Signals</h3> <p>The relationship between +DI and -DI lines indicates market direction and generates important trading signals:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>+DI crosses above -DI with ADX rising:</strong> Bullish signal suggesting upward momentum is gaining control</li> <li><strong>-DI crosses above +DI with ADX rising:</strong> Bearish signal indicating downward momentum is strengthening</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>The wider the separation between these lines after a crossover, the stronger the directional movement. Notice the <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/bullish-bearish-divergence/">divergence</a> of the DI lines in the EURUSD example above, when the ADX line crossed the 40 level.</p> <p><img alt="ADX Crossover +DI and -DI (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/79de1127-9578-4ce1-8005-02f8d7128818/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-Trend-Reversal-Turns-into-Trend-Continuation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-1.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">ADX Crossover of the +DI and -DI Lines, EURUSD 1D Chart</p> <h3>3. ADX Momentum Divergence Signals</h3> <p>When price makes new highs/lows but the ADX fails to make corresponding new highs, divergence occurs. This suggests that the trend is losing momentum, despite continued price movement, and often precedes a trend reversal or significant pullback.</p> &nbsp; <p>For example, if price pushes to new lows in a downtrend but ADX makes a lower high compared to its previous peak, the downward momentum is likely weakening despite the lower prices. Sticking to the EURUSD chart, see below (note the current ADX line while EURUSD is at a peak).</p> <p><img alt="ADX Divergence, Trend Reversal (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/71757038-c981-4bb5-8824-6ae01ebe9202/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-ZigZag-Steeper-Angle-Produces-More-Gains-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-1.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">ADX Divergence with Price Leads to Trend Change</p> <h3>4. ADX Entry Confirmation Signals</h3> <p>To increase confidence in ADX-generated entry signals, look for these additional confirmations:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Rejection of key levels:</strong> A DI crossover followed by a strong rejection candle (pin bar, <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/bullish-bearish-engulfing-patterns/">engulfing pattern</a>) at a recent swing point</li> <li><strong>Volume surge:</strong> A DI crossover accompanied by significantly higher volume, suggesting institutional participation</li> <li><strong>Structure break:</strong> Price breaking through key support/resistance levels as ADX rises past 25, confirming the new trend direction</li> </ul> <p><img alt="ADX Confirmation, Trend Trade (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/42409e4b-4c68-47f1-8629-76cf9fe6db99/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-ZigZag-RSI-Reversal-Long-Trade-with-Trend-Confirmation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-1.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">ADX Confirmation Methods for Entering Trend Trades</p> &nbsp; <p>These combined signals typically produce the highest probability ADX-based trades.</p> &nbsp; <p>In summary, the four primary trading scenarios with ADX are:</p> &nbsp; <ol> <li>+DI &gt; -DI and ADX rising = Confirmed uptrend</li> <li>-DI &gt; +DI and ADX rising = Confirmed downtrend</li> <li>+DI &gt; -DI and ADX falling = Weakening uptrend</li> <li>-DI &gt; +DI and ADX falling = Weakening downtrend</li> </ol> &nbsp; <p>Understanding these trend signals progressively builds your ADX expertise. Begin by mastering basic trend strength interpretation, then incorporate average directional movement signals, and finally, advance to divergence analysis.</p> &nbsp; <p>Still, not all ADX signals work out.</p> <h2>Common False Signals With the ADX</h2> <p>Despite providing solid trend signals, the ADX can produce false signals, which can lead to delayed entries or premature exits. Watch out for:</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Frequent DI crossovers:</strong> When +DI and -DI cross frequently, indicating a lack of directional commitment. <strong>Fix:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Avoid crossovers unless ADX rises between 20 and 25, with price structure breaks</li> <li>Use higher timeframes (4H+) for clearer trend signals</li> <li>Apply multi-timeframe alignment</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p><strong>Late DI crossovers:</strong> Crossovers often come after much of the move has been completed. <strong>Fix:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Look for the first crossover with ADX rising above 25</li> <li>Avoid signals when ADX exceeds 40 (overextended move)</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p><strong>ADX-price divergence:</strong> Price breaks support/resistance without ADX rise (false breakout), or ADX rises while price fails to make new highs/lows (weakening momentum). <strong>Fix:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Validate ADX readings with structural analysis or momentum indicators</li> <li>Check if price action aligns with the ADX trajectory</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Reducing false signals can help build better strategies.</p> <h2>ADX Trading Strategies</h2> <p>The ADX can be adapted to various trading systems and serves as a confirmation tool for a trading strategy.</p> &nbsp; <p>Four popular ADX trading strategies that each have an edge during different market conditions and trading styles are:</p> <h3>1. ADX Trend Confirmation Strategy</h3> <p>This ADX strategy aims to validate the existence of a trend and its strength before entering a trade.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>How it Works:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Use the ADX line to determine trend strength</li> <li>Monitor the +DI and -DI lines for trend direction</li> <li>A trend is considered trade-worthy when ADX is above 25 and rising</li> <li>Use +DI &gt; -DI for long bias, and -DI &gt; +DI for short bias</li> </ul> <h3>2. ADX Momentum Divergence Strategy</h3> <p>The ADX divergence strategy focuses on identifying bullish or bearish divergence between price movement and ADX values to capitalise on potential trend reversals.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>How it Works:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Look for price making new highs/lows while the ADX fails to make new highs/lows</li> <li>This suggests the trend is losing strength, even if the price hasn&rsquo;t reversed yet</li> <li>Confirm with +DI/-DI crossover against the prevailing trend</li> </ul> <h3>3. ADX Strategy with Moving Average</h3> <p>This combination enhances trend-following strategies by combining ADX with a moving average.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>How it Works:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Use a trend-defining moving average (e.g., 50 or 100 EMA)</li> <li>Enter trades in the direction of the moving average slope</li> <li>Use ADX to confirm the trend strength</li> <li>Use +DI/-DI crossovers as timing signals for entries</li> </ul> <h3>4. ADX Breakout Strategy</h3> <p>This ADX indicator strategy allows traders to time entries precisely as a new trend or breakout begins following periods of consolidation.</p> &nbsp; <p>How it Works:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Identify a tight range zone (e.g., triangle, flag, or sideways channel)</li> <li>Watch for low ADX readings (typically below 20), which suggest low volatility</li> <li>A breakout followed by a rising ADX from below 20 to above 25 confirms the beginning of a strong move</li> <li>Direction can also be confirmed with +DI/-DI crossover and price action</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>However, all ADX strategies can be effective when combined with other analytical methods.</p> <h2>How to Use the ADX Indicator with Other Technical Analysis Methods</h2> <p>While the ADX momentum indicator excels at measuring trend strength, it also works well when paired with other technical analysis tools to provide direction and confirmation.</p> <h3>ADX and Price action</h3> <p>When the ADX rises above 25 with either the +DI or -DI dominant, forex traders should verify this signal by identifying key structural breaks.</p> &nbsp; <p>A rising ADX might suggest increasing momentum, but if price remains trapped within a range or fails to break previous swing points, the signal lacks conviction.</p> &nbsp; <p>Remember that no trading tool, including ADX, should override a clear price structure.</p> <h3>ADX and Volume</h3> <p>A breakout accompanied by a DI crossover and rising ADX becomes significantly more reliable when supported by above-average volume.</p> &nbsp; <p>Conversely, low-volume breakouts with strong ADX readings often fail, as they suggest retail rather than institutional participation.</p> &nbsp; <p>The interplay between volume expansion and ADX strength creates a powerful confirmation system for trending moves.</p> <h3>ADX and Candlestick Patterns</h3> <p>A bullish engulfing candle forming during a +DI crossover with rising ADX indicates aggressive buying pressure at a critical juncture.</p> &nbsp; <p>Similarly, bearish patterns like evening stars or shooting stars during -DI dominance can provide ideal short entries.</p> &nbsp; <p>These <a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/using-candlestick-patterns-in-forex-day-trading/">candlestick pattern formations</a> help visualise the psychological battle between buyers and sellers at key decision points.</p> <h3>ADX and Relative Strength Index (RSI)</h3> <p>When the <a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/rsi-indicator/">RSI</a> sits above 50 during a bullish DI crossover with a rising ADX, it signals aligned upward momentum across multiple trading indicators.</p> &nbsp; <p>Observe for RSI divergence. When price makes higher highs while RSI makes lower highs, it suggests weakening momentum despite ADX strength, warning of potential trend reversals.</p> <h3>ADX and Bollinger Bands</h3> <p>A price breaking beyond the upper or lower band during a rising ADX suggests <a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/currency-volatility/">expanding volatility</a> in the breakout direction, which is a potential entry signal.</p> &nbsp; <p>However, if the ADX rises while the price remains within narrowing bands, the move may lack the necessary volatility for a sustained breakout, increasing the risk of a false signal.</p> <h3>ADX and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)</h3> <p>A rising ADX aligned with an expanding MACD histogram above zero reinforces bullish trend momentum, while readings below zero confirm bearish pressure.</p> &nbsp; <p>This combination helps filter out many false signals that plague range-bound markets.</p> &nbsp; <p>The table summarises the various technical analysis methods that can be combined with ADX signals.</p> <p><img alt="ADX Combinations (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/edcd8613-c681-4c55-b52a-6bcf7d2a29e1/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-Best-Forex-Indicators-for-Trend-Trading-ThinkMarkets-2.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">How ADX Indicator Works with Complementary Technical Indicators</p> <h2>ADX Strategy with Triple Confirmation</h2> <p>The example below demonstrates the ADX breakout strategy on the GBPCAD 4H chart, improved with a triple-confirmation approach:</p> &nbsp; <ol> <li><strong>ADX (14):</strong> Trend strength confirmation</li> <li><strong>RSI (14):</strong> Trend momentum confirmation</li> <li><strong>Price Action:</strong> Pattern confirmation</li> </ol> &nbsp; <p><strong>Setup:</strong> ADX (14) + RSI (14) + descending triangle</p> <p><img alt="ADX Breakout Strategy (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/64252f09-16a4-4a59-b51b-081469724788/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-ADX-Indicator-ZigZag-Trend-Continuation-Short-Trade-with-MACD-Confirmation-GBPUSD-1D-Chart-1.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">ADX Breakout Strategy with Triple Confirmation</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Market Context:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>GBPCAD had formed a descending triangle pattern, indicating potential bearish pressure</li> <li>ADX had been below 20, suggesting a non-trending, consolidation phase</li> <li>RSI was showing early signs of bearish momentum</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p><strong>Signal Formation:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Price broke out of the triangle&#39;s support with a bearish candle</li> <li>The RSI reflected an oversold zone, supporting the bearish momentum</li> <li>ADX rose above 25, indicating trend strength</li> <li>All three confirmation elements aligned: pattern breakout (price action), momentum (RSI), and trend strength (ADX)</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p><strong>Trade Execution:</strong></p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Entry:</strong> A trader would have entered after the bearish candle closed (1.7789)</li> <li><strong>Stop-loss:</strong> 50 pips above the breakout candle high at 1.7950</li> <li><strong>Take-profit</strong>: When +DI crosses -DI at 1.7575 (RSI above 50), resulting in a 1.33x risk-reward ratio</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p><strong>Why This Strategy Works:</strong></p> &nbsp; <p>This multi-confirmation approach combines the strengths of three different types of analysis:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>ADX confirms the presence of tradeable trend strength</li> <li>RSI validates the momentum direction</li> <li>The <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/day-trading-chart-patterns/">chart pattern</a> (<a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/the-triangle-chart-pattern-a-short-guide/">descending triangle</a>) provides structural context for the breakout</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>When implementing this ADX indicator strategy, forex traders should focus first on identifying the pattern formation, then wait for both the ADX and RSI to confirm before executing the trade. This disciplined approach helps filter out false breakouts that would trigger losses with a single indicator strategy.</p> &nbsp; <div> <style type="text/css">.didyouknow { display: block; background: #F1FDf0; width: 600px; border-radius: 20px; gap: 20px; padding-top: 48px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 48px; padding-left: 40px; font-family: Figtree; font-weight: 600; font-size: 22px; line-height: 140%; letter-spacing: 0%; } </style> </div> <div class="didyouknow"><a href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual/" style="text-decorations:none; color:inherit;" target="_blank">Add the ADX Indicator on ThinkMarkets Charts and Try Your Strategy for Free with a Demo Account!</a></div> <h2>Limitations and Considerations with the ADX</h2> <p>The ADX is a powerful trend strength indicator, but like any other indicator, it has its drawbacks. Here&rsquo;s what traders should keep in mind:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Inconsistency in ranging and volatile markets:</strong> The ADX is a lagging trend indicator that becomes inconsistent during periods of consolidation and volatility. Consider cross-referencing this indicator with other trading indicators and price action to gain a deeper understanding.</li> <li><strong>Timeframe considerations and parameter adjustments:</strong> The default 14-period setting may not be suitable for all time frames or markets. Test to find the sweet spot, a period that strikes a balance between speed and reliability.</li> <li><strong>Common misinterpretations:</strong> <ul> <li>Believing that a rising ADX equates to a price rise (the momentum indicator only measures trend strength, not direction)</li> <li>Assuming that a low ADX reading equates to a reversal (this doesn&#39;t always mean a trend change, it only suggests exhaustion)</li> <li>Using ADX solely for entries (the trading tool should be used as a secondary filter)</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Market-specific considerations:</strong> Different markets have unique characteristics that affect ADX readings: <ul> <li><strong>Forex:</strong> Generally requires higher ADX thresholds (25-30) for trend confirmation due to frequent ranging periods</li> <li><strong>Stocks:</strong> Stocks may respond better to lower ADX thresholds (20-25) depending on their volatility profiles</li> <li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Often display stronger trends with clearer ADX signals due to fundamental supply-demand dynamics</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Long-term reliability concerns:</strong> History shows that the ADX may be less reliable during: <ul> <li>Major economic crises when abnormal volatility disrupts trends</li> <li>Prolonged environments of low volatility when the ADX provides meaningless trend readings</li> <li>Periods that create artificial trend movements</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <h2>Is Trading with the ADX Right for You?</h2> <p>The ADX is one of the most valuable technical analysis tools for trend-following traders in the forex market. Unlike trend indicators that focus on price direction, ADX quantifies trend strength, helping trend traders:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Identify strong, tradable trends</li> <li>Avoid choppy, directionless markets</li> <li>Confirm breakouts and trend continuations</li> <li>Time strategic entries and exits</li> <li>Filter out false signals when combined with other trading tools</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>While no trading indicator is the holy grail, understanding the strengths and limitations of ADX enables trend traders to incorporate it effectively into their trading systems, especially when combined with complementary technical analysis tools.</p> &nbsp; <p>Whether you&#39;re a day trader seeking intraday momentum or a swing trader capturing larger market moves, learning the ADX momentum indicator can improve your ability to trade trends across various market conditions.</p> &nbsp; <p>Access real-time ADX data across all major currency pairs and other instruments through our advanced charting package, giving you the edge needed to identify trading opportunities in today&#39;s dynamic markets.</p>

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What are Forex Economic Indicators and How They Impact Forex Trading

What are Forex Economic Indicators and How They Impact Forex Trading

<p>Forex economic indicators are statistical measurements traders use as fundamental tools to gain an edge around the release of high-impact news reports. They are a telltale of the economic health of a country. As such, they provide insights into the direction of its currency, which ultimately impacts forex trading.</p> &nbsp; <p>Released by governments and private organisations at scheduled intervals, these forex market indicators of economic health often set off significant market activity across currency pairs, averaging around 70 pips in certain cases. A UC Berkeley research paper validates that <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/fedyk/files/afedyk_newsdriventrading.pdf" target="_blank">trading volumes increase substantially</a>, though the study focused on the ten minutes following an economic news release.</p> &nbsp; <p>Nonetheless, traders often anticipate large price moves and position ahead of economic reports to capitalise on the increase in volatility. However, volatility carries significant risks in forex trading and can lead to depletion of a trading account without the ability to make informed trading decisions.</p> &nbsp; <p>To support those who want to learn forex trading with a focus on economic calendar events while also managing risk, this article explores:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>The major forex economic indicators and how they impact FX trade</li> <li>Which economic indicators matter most for specific currency pairs</li> <li>How to design effective forex trading strategies for these releases</li> <li>Lessons from the history where reports sparked volatility</li> <li>A step-by-step process for developing effective trading strategies</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Let&#39;s begin by examining the economic indicators that have the greatest impact on the forex markets.</p> <h2>Which Key Economic Indicators Impact Forex Markets Most</h2> <p>Currency markets can be sensitive to the relative country&#39;s economic data releases, with specific readings often having a substantial impact on currency trading. Understanding which important economic events impact the world of forex most is crucial for trading success.</p> &nbsp; <p>On the one hand, high-impact economic indicators are essential to understand in <a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/">forex trading</a>. They can affect the forex market as they supply insights into monetary policy moves. On the other hand, low-impact types of economic indicators may go unnoticed.</p> &nbsp; <p>One way to discover how economic indicators impact currency values is to identify market-moving events on a trading calendar. You can filter these by event, country, region, and importance, utilising the <a href="/en/economic-calendar/">ThinkMarkets forex economic calendar</a>.</p> <p><img alt="Forex Economic Calendar (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/d7747535-6e80-4824-aead-991901ac7686/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-High-Importance-Forex-Economic-Events-G7-ThinkMarkets-Trader-Platform-Calendar.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">High Importance Forex Economic Events, G7, ThinkMarkets Trader Platform Calendar</p> &nbsp; <p>The following hierarchy is designed to help traders prioritise economic indicators that most impact the forex market, with particular attention needed for those listed on the left.</p> <p><img alt="Most Impactful Economic Data Releases" src="/getmedia/f1a60266-5f69-428c-b3f3-084b95eafbea/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-Most-Impactful-Economic-Data-Releases.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Most Impactful Economic Data Releases</p> &nbsp; <p>High-impact economic indicators are key data releases with the most impact on forex, which include:</p> <h3>1. Interest Rate Decisions by Central Banks</h3> <p>They are the most influential market drivers, although their impact on currency movements has diminished over the years of the high-interest-rate environment. When major central banks like the Federal Reserve (FED), European Central Bank (ECB) or Bank of England (BOE) announce policy changes, markets often react with instant volatility. A surprise rate hike typically strengthens the relative currency value as higher rates attract foreign capital. But it is not only the actual decision that moves markets. Other related events used as trading signals are:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Forward Guidance:</strong> It often presents trading opportunities as central bank members hint about future policy direction and may cause repricing of the exchange rate. Typical places for insights are the press conferences after major decision announcements.</li> <li><strong>Meeting Minutes:</strong> They might shake up markets, particularly when they reveal dissenting views or shifting sentiment among policymakers.</li> <li><strong>Interest Rate Differentials:</strong> They reveal divergence between economies&#39; monetary policies and may create carry trade opportunities as some central banks raise or cut rates more aggressively.</li> <li><strong>Quantitative easing (QE) and tightening (QT):</strong> They may completely turn around the underlying trend, as they dictate money supply and long-term bond yield demand.</li> </ul> <h3>2. Employment Data</h3> <p>The job market often moves currency pairs, with the extent depending on the granularity of various economic conditions. If we use the US labour market as an economic indicator example, which is the biggest labour market in the world, the most important components are:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):</strong> This is one of <a href="/en/trading-academy/market-events/trading-the-non-farm-payroll-nfp-report/">the most influential US datasets</a> for traders, consistently triggering volatility upon release. The headline figure, which measures the change in employed people excluding agricultural workers, acts as a crucial barometer of the world&#39;s largest economy.</li> <li><strong>Unemployment Rate:</strong> It may need to be analysed alongside the participation rate. For example, a declining unemployment rate paired with falling participation often signals that discouraged workers are dropping out rather than indicating overall economic strength.</li> <li><strong>Average Hourly Earnings:</strong> They are important as policymakers focus on wage growth as a leading indicator of inflationary pressures.</li> <li><strong>ADP private employment report, JOLTS job openings and weekly jobless claims:</strong> These also build up expectations in the days leading up to the NFP release, with jobless claims guiding expectations week in and week out.</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Remember that a strong NFP where the actual numbers substantially beat estimates typically strengthens the US dollar due to expectations of economic growth and tighter monetary policy.</p> &nbsp; <p>The last NFP report beat estimates by just 9,000 jobs, resulting in around 60 pips in EURUSD volatility. However, historical events on the ThinkMarkets advanced calendar shows an average range of over 70 pips. The small discrepancy of 9,000 jobs reduced the impact on the forex pair.</p> <p><img alt="Impact of NFP on EURUSD (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/60e0d82c-e25d-4d61-a767-a637c0eba08c/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-NFP-Produces-70-pips-on-Average-on-EURUSD.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">NFP Produces 70 pips on Average on EURUSD</p> &nbsp; <div> <style type="text/css">.didyouknow { display: block; background: #F1FDf0; width: 600px; border-radius: 20px; gap: 20px; padding-top: 48px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 48px; padding-left: 40px; font-family: Figtree; font-weight: 600; font-size: 22px; line-height: 140%; letter-spacing: 0%; } </style> </div> <div class="didyouknow">Try our NFP calendar and gauge the potential for price movements <a href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual/">here!</a></div> <h3>3. Inflation Data</h3> <p>Inflation measures the price pressures within a country&#39;s economic performance, which often leads to speculation on forward guidance. A higher inflation print often leads to support for the currency as traders anticipate hikes or at least a hawkish stance by the bank.</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Consumer Price Index (CPI):</strong> It typically draws the most attention in the world of forex trading, with headline CPI capturing cost-of-living changes, and core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) providing a signal of persistent pressures.</li> <li><strong>Producer Price Index (PPI):</strong> It measures price changes from the seller&#39;s perspective and acts as a leading indicator for CPI, as higher production costs filter through to consumer prices with a lag of several months.</li> <li>Market participants also focus on <strong>forward-looking Inflation Expectations</strong>, measured through surveys and inflation swaps, which can trigger strong FX movements when they change suddenly.</li> <li><strong>Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index:</strong> It has become the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge because its methodology differs from CPI by accounting for substitution effects as consumers adjust spending patterns in response to price changes, providing what many economists consider true inflation.</li> </ul> <h3>4. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)</h3> <p>Forex economic indicators such as GDP measure economic activity, and their impact can be significant, especially when the figures deviate from forecasts.</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><strong>Advance GDP estimate:</strong> It is an indicator of economic growth and provides the first glimpse of economic performance, while the <strong>Preliminary estimate</strong> follows a month later with more refined data to validate economic stability. The <strong>Final release</strong> is released another month later, but usually triggers little interest unless it shows dramatic revisions.</li> <li>Traders sift through this data for signs of economic cycle transitions. For instance, two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth may signal a <strong>recession</strong> and economic weakness. High inflation and little growth would point to<strong> stagflation</strong>, an infamously challenging environment for central banks and currency stability.</li> <li><strong>Consumer Spending</strong> is an important component, as it contributes over 70% to the growth of developed economies. Business investment figures would signal corporate confidence and future productivity growth. Government spending changes can impact currencies of countries with large public sectors, while the net exports component may influence commodity currencies and nations heavily dependent on international trade.</li> <li><strong>GDP price deflator</strong> is deemed as an inflation gauge, and quarter-on-quarter annualised growth rates can reveal emerging economic trends.</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>However, not all are important forex economic indicators as they are not created equal. Some are categorised as leading or lagging, each delivering different insights into the economic performance of a country.</p> <h2>What Are Leading and Lagging Economic Indicators in Forex</h2> <p>Leading indicators act as an economic weather forecast and lagging indicators as a confirmation. Let&rsquo;s take a closer look at each one.</p> <h3>Leading Economic Indicators</h3> <p>Leading economic indicators are forward&ndash;looking indicators for forex trading, as they allow traders to use them as early warnings to position themselves before major economic shifts.</p> <p><img alt="Leading Economic Indicators Forex (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/f2810c10-76b6-4275-9a7b-648ce8777c74/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-Lagging-Economic-Indicators.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Leading Economic Indicators in the Forex Market</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Purchasing Managers&#39; Index (PMI):</strong> It is published monthly for manufacturing and services sectors, with readings above 50 signalling positive economic expansion, while those below 50 point to contraction. They provide early insights into GDP growth, employment trends and business sentiment. When the PMI figures of a country consistently beat expectations, its currency typically strengthens as investors bet on the improving economic outlook.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Consumer Confidence Index:</strong> This index measures how optimistic consumers feel about the state of the economy. It is crucial for forex traders because consumer spending accounts for a large portion of GDP in developed economies. A high reading often means increased spending, which drives economic growth.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Building Permits and Housing Starts:</strong> They offer insights into the construction sector and broader economic activity. They tend to rise during economic booms and fall during downturns. These figures can have a big impact on currency markets for currencies like the Australian dollar, where housing plays an important role in the economy.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Retail Sales:</strong> These economic indicators include patterns of consumer spending. Upbeat numbers imply growth and could lead to currency appreciation, while poor readings might prompt traders to sell a currency on an anticipated economic slowdown.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Yield curve analysis:</strong> The yield curve is a powerful tool for gauging economic health, as inverted curves, where short-term rates climb above long-term ones, may predict a <strong>recession</strong>. However, months of lag between an inversion and the actual recession mean that it is mostly useful in long-term trading. Still, a steepening curve in one country against a flattening curve in another points to diverging interest rates that may create trading opportunities.</p> <h3>Lagging Economic Indicators</h3> <p>Lagging economic indicators play a role in confirming established trends and provide evidence of the current state of an economy. They are backward-looking indicators, often validating the leading data, which is crucial for making informed trading decisions.</p> <p><img alt="Lagging Economic Indicators Forex (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/5b2fa657-4f72-4ea0-9b5c-6f88b4212f74/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-lagging-indicators.png " /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Lagging Economic Indicators in Forex</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Trade Balance:</strong> A popular economic indicator in 2025, the trade balance shows the difference between a country&#39;s goods exports and imports. A surplus generally supports currency strength, while a deficit may weaken it. The market reaction depends on how the actual figures stack against expectations and the broader economic context. For export-dependent economies like Japan and Germany, the trade balance can have a direct impact on market sentiment.</p> &nbsp; <p><strong>Industrial Production:</strong> It helps confirm economic trends. Manufacturing output measures production, and unexpected contractions may cause currency weakness, while capacity utilisation rates provide insights into inflationary pressures. These readings may signal broader economic turns, even though industrial production accounts for a low share of developed economies.</p> <h2>Which Forex Economic Indicators Impact Currency Pairs Most</h2> <p>All traders closely monitor data from the US, the world&rsquo;s largest economy, with the dollar serving as the primary reserve currency. Other country-specific indicators affect their respective currencies and provide relevant context. The table below lists data that matters to major currency pairs:</p> <p><img alt="List of Key Economic Indicators Moving Major Forex Pairs" src="/getmedia/5a8abddc-b928-41fb-a4ef-950a931fe04c/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-List-of-Key-Economic-Indicators-Moving-Major-Forex-Pairs.png" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">List of Key Economic Indicators Moving Major Forex Pairs</p> &nbsp; <p>These relationships are not static and can evolve over time based on a mix of market sentiment, changes in macroeconomic indicators and shifting risk appetite. For example, coordinated central bank policy changes or a flight to safety may drive market dynamics in a more meaningful way. However, theory alone isn&#39;t sufficient&mdash;examining historical examples offers valuable lessons on how economic surprises can create big market reactions.</p> <h2>Examples of How Economic Indicators Impact the Forex Market</h2> <p>Traders must beware that economic events coined as &ldquo;Black Swan&rdquo; might trigger seismic market shifts, where liquidity dries up, leading to gaps and slippage that go beyond stop losses. Below are announcements that sparked extraordinary price movements in the past.</p> <h3>Swiss National Bank Removes Euro Peg (January 2015)</h3> <p>Probably the most dramatic policy announcement in recent forex history occurred on 15th January 2015, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly abandoned its 1.20 floor on the EUR/CHF exchange rate. Within minutes, the Swiss franc soared by 30% across the board, sending USD/CHF and other CHF pairs into an abyss.</p> <p><img alt="Swiss Franc Shock (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/c66581cc-8a74-4b5e-80f8-1d7d8dfd342c/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-EURCHF-Crashes-30-After-Discontinuing-Euro-Peg-Jan-2015.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">EURCHF Crashes 30% After Discontinuing Euro Peg, Jan 2015</p> &nbsp; <p>The result was nothing short of catastrophic as several forex brokers went bust, unable to cover their clients&rsquo; massive losses, while some major banks reported eight-figure holes on their books.</p> &nbsp; <p>The key lesson here is that central bank credibility and communication can dramatically impact markets, and when they act unexpectedly, the resulting volatility can have a huge potential impact on currency pairs.</p> <h3>Brexit Referendum Results (June 2016)</h3> <p>The UK&#39;s EU membership referendum on 23rd June 2016 is an example of how a political event can create exaggerated market movements based on economically motivated influences.</p> &nbsp; <p>As &quot;Leave&quot; turned out to be the surprise vote, the pound crashed by 12% in a matter of hours. In the following months, GBPUSD continued to fall as traders priced in the long-term economic implications of Brexit, showing how major economic factors can trigger not just short-term volatility but also establish multi-year trends that have yet to reverse.</p> <p><img alt="Brexit Crash (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/297a310b-3bde-430a-8ba2-046aff79c484/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-British-Pound-Tumbles-12-Following-Vote-to-Leave-Europe-June-2016.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">British Pound Tumbles 12% Following Vote to Leave Europe, June 2016</p> &nbsp; <p>The unexpected poll shows that market consensus can be wrong, and the initial reaction may signal economic trends that are larger than anticipated, as economic ramifications are already factored in.</p> <h3>US Inflation Surprise (June 2022)</h3> <p>In June 2022, markets were rattled by a stronger-than-expected US inflation report. The May CPI came in hot at 8.6%, the highest since 1981. The reading shattered the narrative that inflation had peaked, forcing market participants to quickly reassess the Fed&rsquo;s response, which resulted in an aggressive 75 basis point rate hike at its June meeting, the largest increase in nearly three decades.</p> &nbsp; <p>The greenback surged against all major currencies as traders priced in a more hawkish Fed and widening interest rate differentials. This episode highlighted how a single data point, when it invalidates the prevailing consensus, can serve as a catalyst for significant repricing across FX markets and future economic expectations.</p> &nbsp; <p>To capitalise on potential major moves while managing risks, one must develop a systematic forex strategy to trade the news.</p> <h2>Developing a Strategy for Forex Trading Economic Indicators</h2> <p>Trading forex economic news requires a systematic approach that combines preparation, the integration of technical analysis and trader discipline. Below are some simple yet effective steps to help forex traders use economic indicators to leverage opportunities:</p> <h3>Step 1: Use Economic Calendar Effectively</h3> <p>A forex economic calendar lists upcoming releases, previous readings, market forecasts and actual figures. The steps below help traders avoid being caught off guard by sudden shifts in sentiment:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Mark out relevant high-impact events.</li> <li>Look ahead, as major forex news can influence the market days beforehand.</li> <li>Review previous figures to establish context.</li> <li>Track revisions, if possible.</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Using the ThinkMarkets calendar, you can track such events under the event chart, tracking the last five years. For example, below you can quickly visualise how many times the NFP beat economist estimates over the past year.</p> <p><img alt="How to Trade the NFP (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/902aaebb-d269-4117-a15c-ef7c8bf67ce0/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-NFP-Beat-Estimates-Eight-out-of-Thirteen-Times-over-the-Last-Year-June-26.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">NFP Beat Estimates Eight out of Thirteen Times over the Last Year, June 26</p> <h3>Step 2: Perform Basic Fundamental Analysis</h3> <p>The market&#39;s reaction to economic data is often about how they are up against collective expectations. Traders need to:</p> <ul> <li>Dig into consensus, which acts as the benchmark.</li> <li>Be mindful of the &ldquo;surprise factor&rdquo;, which is a deviation from consensus.</li> <li>Pay attention to historical revisions (&ldquo;whisper&rdquo; numbers) as they can change the market&#39;s positioning.</li> <li>Remember that the market often prices in the outcome, especially for widely anticipated reports.</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>Tracking the previous economic indicator example, you can adjust your expectations based on the actual figures in real time. In the image below, one can see that the last upbeat NFP ended up pushing EURUSD 12 pips lower four hours after the event. Based on 9,000 jobs added, you can make an assumption, or a guess, that every 1,000 jobs shy of estimates might move EURUSD 1.2 pips. The more events you add, the smoother your benchmark can become.</p> <p><img alt="NFP EURUSD Projection (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/00c87cba-24ec-4a34-976a-f1899b7790cf/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-Using-Previous-NFP-Impact-on-EURUSD-to-Project-Future-Moves.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">Using Previous NFP Impact on EURUSD to Project Future Moves</p> <h3>Step 3. Combine with Technical Analysis</h3> <p>News often triggers breakouts as prices burst through established levels. Below are methods to trade the news using technical analysis.</p> <h4>Analyse Breakout Context</h4> <p>Breakouts occur when the price moves decisively beyond a previous range, and news is a powerful catalyst, as it can alter market perceptions. The most powerful breakouts usually occur when data substantially deviates from expectations.</p> <h4>Integrate Technical Levels</h4> <p>The most effective approach to trading economic releases involves mixing news catalysts with technical confirmation. This strategy blends fundamental analysis with technical timing and risk management, and its steps involve:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Map out relevant support and resistance</li> <li>Look for <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/day-trading-chart-patterns/">chart patterns</a> (e.g. <a href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/using-double-candlestick-patterns-in-day-trading/">engulfing candles</a>) that indicate momentum</li> <li>Seek confirmation from oscillators (overbought or oversold conditions)</li> <li>Spot divergences between price and indicators</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>As historical barriers, horizontal support and resistance are the most straightforward levels. Traders should also pay attention to round numbers and psychological levels, such as 1.14, as seen in the NFP example on EURUSD.</p> &nbsp; <p>For the EURUSD NFP example, following the first 10 minutes, the 1.14 rejects bulls, with entry at 1.1410 and exit when the RSI returns from oversold territory and an <a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/using-candlestick-patterns-in-forex-day-trading/">engulfing bar</a> appears.</p> <p><img alt="NFP Trade (ThinkMarkets)" src="/getmedia/10cc7993-31ec-417c-bddc-497e270e9dce/Academy-Indicators-and-patterns-Forex-Economic-Indicators-EURUSD-NFP-Trade-Example-Support-and-Resistance-Trading.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p style="text-align: center;">EURUSD NFP Trade Example, Support and Resistance Trading</p> &nbsp; <p>Trendlines and moving averages act as dynamic levels. As such, it is important to identify them before data releases.</p> &nbsp; <p>Fibonacci retracement levels play a similar role and, when combined with the former, they form &quot;confluence zones&quot; where the price may react strongly.</p> &nbsp; <p>Finally, a multiple-timeframe analysis can be particularly helpful. A breakout on the lower timeframes of 5 to 60 minutes might be noise on the daily chart. However, if a news trigger causes a breakout across different timeframes (and pairs), the resulting move often proves to be sustainable.</p> <h3>Step 4. Manage Trader Risk During Volatile Release</h3> <p>News often triggers sharp price swings that can plough through stop losses or create significant slippage. Protecting your capital demands strict risk management, which includes:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Reduce position sizes by 30-50% to limit losses while staying in the game.</li> <li>Use wider stop losses to take into account gaps and spikes.</li> <li>Replace actual stops with mental stops.</li> <li>Step back for at least the first 10 minutes and wait for the initial volatility to subside.</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>With risks managed, the relationship between economic data and currency moves could help traders navigate forex markets more effectively during volatile releases.</p> <h2>Ready to Trade Forex Economic Indicators?</h2> <p>News trading is not about forex forecasting. It is more about being aware of economists&#39; estimates and being prepared to start trading and managing risk.</p> &nbsp; <p>Understanding economic indicators and integrating them with technical analysis allows forex traders to develop their own framework for economic calendar trading. However, keep in mind that the role of forex economic indicators is to help find high-probability trading setups. Indicators provide insights into the economic health of a country, while you still need to follow a disciplined forex trading approach by:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Creating a personalised indicator watchlist for the economic calendar week</li> <li>Filtering economic calendar news by its level of impact</li> <li>Combining forex news catalysts with technical analysis</li> <li>Keep learning and adapting the methodology to evolving market regimes</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p>With consistent practice and disciplined risk management, trading economic releases can become one of your most reliable strategies.</p> &nbsp; <div> <style type="text/css">.didyouknow { display: block; background: #F1FDf0; width: 600px; border-radius: 20px; gap: 20px; padding-top: 48px; padding-right: 40px; padding-bottom: 48px; padding-left: 40px; font-family: Figtree; font-weight: 600; font-size: 22px; line-height: 140%; letter-spacing: 0%; } </style> </div> <div class="didyouknow">Start applying these strategies with a risk-free demo account <a href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual/">here!</a></div>

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What is a Rising Wedge?

What is a Rising Wedge?

<p dir="ltr">The <strong>rising</strong> (ascending)<strong> wedge</strong> pattern is a <em>bearish</em> chart pattern that signals an imminent breakout to the downside. It&rsquo;s the opposite of the falling (descending) wedge pattern (bullish), as these two constitute a popular wedge pattern. A rising wedge can be both a continuation and reversal pattern, although the former is more common and more efficient as it follows the direction of an overall trend.&nbsp;<br /> &nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr">In this blog post, we discuss the rising wedge formation, its main characteristics, how to spot it, and how to make sure that your trades involving the rising wedge pattern are profitable.&nbsp;</p> <h2 dir="ltr">Where does the falling wedge occur?</h2> <p>Similar to <a data-di-id="di-id-d2dcb780-a21cf72e" href="/en/trading-academy/forex/falling-wedge-pattern">the bullish wedge</a>, the rising wedge&nbsp;consists of two converging trend lines that connect the most recent higher lows and higher highs. In a rising wedge, the lows are catching up with the highs at a higher pace, which means that the lower (supporting) trend line is steeper.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img alt="rising wedge pattern" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Rising-wedge-image-1.jpg" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>A rising wedge can occur either in the downtrend, when it is seen as a continuation pattern as it seeks to extend the current bearish move. Or it can occur in an uptrend, ultimately resulting in a&nbsp;reversal pattern. The former is considered to be a more popular, and more effective&nbsp;form of a rising wedge.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> As with the falling wedge, we note three key features of a rising wedge:<br /> &nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>The price action temporarily trades in an uptrend (the higher highs and higher lows)</li> <li>Two trend lines (support and resistance) that are converging</li> <li>The decrease in volume as the wedge progresses towards the breakout</li> </ul> <p><br /> The third point is seen more as a boost to the validity and effectiveness of the pattern, rather than a mandatory element. The decreasing volume suggests that the sellers are consolidating their energy before they start pushing the price action lower towards the breakout.</p> <h2>Strengths and Weaknesses of the Pattern</h2> <p>The main strength of an ascending wedge pattern is its ability to warn us of an imminent change in the trend direction. Despite the fact that the wedge captures the price action moving higher, the consolidation of the energy means the breakout is likely to happen soon.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> Given that the lows are progressing faster than the highs, the wedge is squeezing towards the point where the two trend lines intersect. Despite a push from the downside, the buyers are finding it difficult to break out to the upside, which triggers a move in the opposite direction.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> On the other hand, the rising wedge is still a technical indicator that only generates a signal. As every other indicator, it is not, and it can&rsquo;t be 100% correct in predicting future price movements. Thus, it is best applied alongside other technical indicators.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The best possible way to identify the key strengths and weaknesses of a rising wedge is to start analysing the pattern yourself. For this purpose, <a data-di-id="di-id-555d44fe-1d3b3793" href="/en/metatrader5">MetaTrader 5 trading platform</a> offers a great trading environment which allows you to focus on the price action and get more familiar with this and other chart formations.&nbsp;</p> <h2>Spotting the rising wedge</h2> <p dir="ltr">Identifying a rising wedge is not so difficult. As a first step, you should eliminate all types of wedges that are present&nbsp;in the sideways-trading environment. The ascending wedge occurs either in a downtrend as the price action temporarily corrects higher, or in an uptrend.<br /> &nbsp;</p> <p><img alt="rising wedge pattern" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Rising-wedge-image-2.jpg" /></p> <p dir="ltr">Down here we have a USD/CHF daily chart. The price action is moving lower until a point when it creates a third in the series of the lower lows. Afterwards, the buyers start pushing the price again higher, creating a rising wedge.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr">Finally, we have a breakout to the downside, as the buyers were unable to capitalise on the positive momentum they had. This wedge is a bit narrower as two trend lines converge quite quickly, which is positive from the risk/reward perspective.</p> <h2>Trading the Rising Wedge</h2> <p>We will now use the same chart to show how you should trade the rising wedge. Of course, there are many rising wedges that we can use to show how to trade the ascending wedge, however, we use the same chart to provide a continuity and complete the process - from spotting the wedge to finalising the trade.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img alt="Trading rising wedge pattern" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Rising-wedge-image-3.jpg" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Hence, once we identify the wedge, we process towards the second stage when we look at the trade elements - possible entry, stop loss, and take profit. But first, pay more attention to two vertical red lines. In between these two, the volume is decreasing as the wedge progresses.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The moment the volume breaks the decreasing trend is&nbsp;when the candle breaks out of the wedge. A higher volume behind the break is a great evidence that the breakout is happening, as you can see a strong increase in volume figures once the breakout starts taking place.&nbsp;<br /> &nbsp;</p> <strong>We also have three horizontal lines:</strong><br /> &nbsp; <ul> <li>black (entry)</li> <li>red (stop loss)</li> <li>and green (take profit)</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div dir="ltr">Entry is placed once we have a first daily close outside of the wedge&rsquo;s territory. A stop-loss should be set inside the wedge&rsquo;s territory as any return of the price action to the inside of the wedge invalidates the pattern.</div> &nbsp; <div dir="ltr">In this particular case, the distance between the entry and stop loss is very short, since two trend lines have almost intersected. Hence, the risk in this trade is extremely low. As with the falling wedges, the take profit is calculated by measuring the distance (the short blue vertical line) between the two converging lines when the pattern is first formed.</div> &nbsp; <div dir="ltr">Finally, we have our trade details: Entry - $0.9835, stop loss - $0.9855, take profit&nbsp; - $0.9695. Thus, we are risking 20 pips to make 140 pips, which is an extreme scenario in the risk-reward context.&nbsp;</div> &nbsp; <p dir="ltr">Given the very small amount of pips that you risk with this scenario, you may also opt to decrease the amount of pips you are targeting from 140 pips to 70, given that a level of $0.9765 is where an important horizontal resistance is located. Choosing between these two options depends on your risk tolerance and overall trading approach.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr">You can also check how both of these approaches work by opening trades on the demo account, which you can do here. This way you start practising first and choosing the best trading approach that fits your skill set, as one size does not fit all.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>

6 min readBeginners
Fibonacci ratios

Fibonacci ratios

<p>The Fibonacci ratios commonly used are 100%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6% - these are shown as horizontal lines on a chart and may identify areas of support and resistance. These levels are created by drawing a trend line between two extreme points and diving the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios. These extreme levels are known as the recent swing high and swing low,&nbsp;<br /> <br /> To identify the Fibonacci levels for an uptrend, click on the swing low and draw the trend line to the swing high. In a down trend you simply reverse the trend line. The following chart shows the Fibonacci levels on price which is in an uptrend.<br /> <br /> <img alt="Fibonacci Retracement" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Fibonacci-Retracement.png" style="vertical-align: middle;" /><br /> <br /> As you can see on the chart, we have plotted the Fibonacci levels by clicking on the swing lows at 1.000 and swing highs at 1.14. The Fibonacci levels plotted show where price travels to and reverses, and are evident at the 61.8%, 38.2% and 23.6% levels. The 61.8% level is a common support level, as in the above example you can see the price has tested this level on many occasions. More recently, you can see where the price broke through the 38.2% level and retested this level. In this example there&rsquo;s an expectation for the currency pair to test the 23.6% level at 1.11.<br /> <br /> The next chart shows the Fibonacci ratios plotted for the pricing action in a down trend.&nbsp; As you can see, we&rsquo;ve drawn a trend line from the swing high at 1.1037 to the swing low at 1.0994. Again, you can clearly see where the price reversed at key Fibonacci levels such as the 50% and 23.6% levels.<br /> <br /> <img alt="Fibonacci Retracement" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Fibonacci-Retracement-2.png" style="vertical-align: middle;" /><br /> <br /> Fibonacci levels are by no means fool proof &ndash; they&rsquo;re not areas where you would buy and sell from. You should look at them as areas of interest &ndash; an indication of where the price may go to in the future.<br /> &nbsp;</p> <h3><strong>Combining Fibonacci ratios with support and resistance</strong></h3> <p>Fibonacci ratios can be subjective, but can also be used to identify key support and resistance levels. A potential way to use the Fibonacci levels is to spot potential support and resistance levels, and see if these levels line up with the Fibonacci levels. If you do spot these levels, the chances of the price bouncing off them are higher.<br /> <br /> <img alt="Fibonacci Retracement" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Fibonacci-Retracement-and-Support.png" style="vertical-align: middle;" /><br /> <br /> As you can see from the chart, the key Fibonacci levels 61.8% and 38.2% have been areas of support and resistance previously, and by identifying this on the chart, these levels can potentially be areas where you could enter the market. With traders looking at the same support and resistance levels, there&rsquo;s a good chance that there will be a number of orders around those levels.&nbsp;</p>

6 min readBeginners
A Complete Guide to Japanese Candlesticks

A Complete Guide to Japanese Candlesticks

<p>A Japanese candlestick is a technical tool used by traders to pack price information into a single candle. They are considered an extremely useful tool, since the traders are able to easily see and analyse a large amount of data.</p> <h2>Origins of the Japanese candlesticks</h2> <p>Japanese candlesticks go back to as far as the 18th century. A Japanese trader Munehisa Homma traded rice in the local markets. He also served as an adviser to the Japanese government.</p> &nbsp; <p>Homma started recording prices of rice on a daily basis, including opening price, high, low, and close. After some time, he started noticing patterns that were repetitive.</p> &nbsp; <p>In 1755, he wrote a book titled: <strong>The Fountain of Gold &mdash; The Three Monkey Record of Mone,</strong> discussing the psychological aspects of the trading process.</p> &nbsp; <p>He is believed to be the first person to realise that the behaviour of other participants in the market is a crucial element in trading. The emotions of traders play a huge part in their decisions. Homma realised this and took advantage while trading the rice.</p> &nbsp; <p>Homma is also known for introducing the <strong>Sakata Rules</strong>. A set of five rules that outline patterns developed by local traders. It is exactly this set of rules that created the basis for the birth of Japanese candlesticks.</p> &nbsp; <p>It was not until the end of the previous century that Steve Nison introduced the concept of Japanese candlesticks to the wider public in a classic investing book titled: <strong>Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.</strong> The essence of this concept is the psychology of a trader, which we will&nbsp;discuss&nbsp;in detail&nbsp;below.</p> <h2>The key elements of Japanese candlesticks</h2> <p>A Japanese candlestick consists of four main elements:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li>Opening price</li> <li>Highest point reached by the asset&rsquo;s price</li> <li>Lowest point reached by the asset&rsquo;s price</li> <li>Closing price of the candle</li> </ul> &nbsp; <p><img alt="structure of a Japanese candlestick" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/structure-of-a-Japanese-candlestick-pic-2.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p>As seen in the photo above, the four elements create two parts of the candle: the&nbsp;<em>wick</em>&nbsp;(extending up and down) and the&nbsp;<em>body</em> that consists of the opening and closing prices. The wick&nbsp;can be long or short, depending on the price movements.</p> &nbsp; <p>As such, candlesticks differ from the simple bar charts by displaying more information, but in such a way that they are still easy to read.</p> &nbsp; <p><img alt="narrow- and wide-spread candlestick" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/narrow-and-wide-spread-candlestick-pic-3.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p>Traders usually use either green (<em><strong>bullish</strong></em>) or red (<em><strong>bearish</strong></em>) colour to paint the candlestick, although some also use white (bullish) and black (bearish) as well.</p> &nbsp; <p><img alt="green (bullish) and red (bearish) colors" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/green-(bullish)-and-red-(bearish)-colors-pic-4.jpg" /></p> &nbsp; <p>As seen in the photo above, the <strong><em>bullish candle</em></strong> is formed when the close&nbsp;is higher than the open, and the opposite is the case for the <em><strong>bearish candle.</strong></em> There is a wide range of different shapes, from those with long wicks to either side to those with almost no body.</p> &nbsp; <p>The top of the upper wick shows the session&rsquo;s high and vice versa. The longer the distance between the high and the low, the wider the price range of the given session is.</p> &nbsp; <p>You can test how different Japanese candlestick patterns work by trading without risking your capital first, by <a href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual/demo"><u>opening a demo trading account</u></a>.</p> <h2>What the Japanese candlesticks tell you</h2> <p>As noted earlier, the Japanese candlesticks are important as they display data to traders that reflect the state of the market. Based on the key elements, traders can better understand the prevailing trend in the market and which side has the upper hand.</p> &nbsp; <p>Looking at the image above, we see the EUR/USD daily chart. At the right end of the chart we see a series of long and green candles. This type of candle is very strong as the body is long and the close is usually near the top of the candle. It means that the bulls are in control of the price action as they could facilitate a series of wins that brought them huge gains.</p> &nbsp; <p>A clean uptrend, which is characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows, sends a message that there is a continuous interest from the side of buyers to push the price higher. On the other hand, the long and red candles are a sign of strong selling pressure.</p> &nbsp; <p>It is exactly the relationship between individual candlesticks that creates patterns that help traders predict future price changes.</p> <h2>The most popular candlestick patterns</h2> <p>There are two major groups of candlestick patterns: <em>bullish vs bearish</em>, and then there are <em>reversal, transitional </em>and <em>continuation</em> patterns. Patterns also differ based on the number of candles, starting from a single-candle formation to those consisting of two and three candles.</p> &nbsp; <p>Bullish patterns are those that predict that the price of an asset is likely to rise while the latter indicate the price is likely to fall. A reversal pattern signals a potential change in direction, while the continuation, as the name itself says, signals an extension of the current trend.</p> &nbsp; <p>In the section below, we will discuss the five most powerful candlestick patterns used by traders to predict price movements and make profits. All of these patterns generate a sign or message only, and you should consult other technical indicators before you engage in a trade.</p> &nbsp; <p>For this purpose, we have prepared <strong>detailed guides</strong> to explain the best candlestick patterns with examples and how to use them in your trading strategy. See a <strong>short summary</strong> for <em>the most popular ones&nbsp;below</em> or just <em>follow the links</em>&nbsp;here to the detailed guides gain deeper understanding:</p> &nbsp; <ul> <li><a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/shooting-star-candlestick-pattern"><u>Shooting Star</u></a></li> <li><a href="/en/trading-academy/forex/ascending-triangle-pattern"><u>Bullish and bearish engulfing patterns</u></a></li> </ul>

6 min readBeginners
A complete guide to reversal candlestick patterns

A complete guide to reversal candlestick patterns

<p>Taking advantage of trending movements is the overall goal of every trader.<br /> <br /> As a trader, you want to position yourself on the winning side and not get caught in a reversal that will hurt your portfolio and capital.&nbsp;Trending movements are usually initiated with market reversals. The sooner you get on the new trend, the higher the chance you will be profitable and, the better&nbsp;<strong>the R:R (risk-reward) ratio</strong>&nbsp;will look.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> In this article, we will look at the definition of&nbsp;<strong>reversal candlestick patterns</strong>, how they work, and what the market is telling us. We will also share a simple trading strategy to demonstrate how you should take advantage of market reversals.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <h2>What reversal patterns show us</h2> <p>Reversal patterns are the opposite of&nbsp;<em>continuation candlestick patterns</em>. While the latter signal that the prevailing trend is likely to continue after a temporary pause is finished and the breakout is confirmed, reversal patterns are pointing towards an impending change in the trend direction. Also, reversal patterns need more time to form than the continuation formations as it is easier for the market to continue in the same direction than change its course.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>For instance, the sellers were successful in pushing the market lower up to a point where they started feeling exhausted, which provided the buyers with an opportunity to initiate a change in the trend direction. As such, they provide traders with an opportunity to initiate a new trade as the reversal will start a new trending movement.<br /> <br /> For the reversal to take place,&nbsp;<strong>the prerequisite is the existence of a previous trend</strong>, meaning we can&rsquo;t classify a start of a new trend as a reversal if the market trades sideways prior to the reversal. You see in a photo below that the market changes the trend direction through the&nbsp;<a data-di-id="di-id-ac7aff17-3ac36973" href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/double-top-reversal-pattern/">double top</a>&nbsp;reversal pattern.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Double-top-pattern.jpg" /></p> <p>Although reversals start with a breakout, usually of&nbsp;<a data-di-id="di-id-c33ed1c7-4d5f22e9" href="/en/trading-academy/technical-analysis/support-resistance/">a strong resistance/support,</a>&nbsp;there are signs prior to that point that signal an impending change in the trend direction. While the trend is characterised by a series of the lower highs and lower lows (downtrend), or the higher highs and higher lows (uptrend), we may see signs of weaknesses in the dying stages.<br /> <br /> For example, as&nbsp;<a data-di-id="di-id-ac7aff17-6040b682" href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/head-and-shoulders-bottom/">the head and shoulders pattern</a>&nbsp;forms, the series of the higher highs is broken with the third peak, which comes at a lower price than the previous one. Alternatively, in the case of a double bottom, the sellers fail to push through the support by creating the equal low and not the lower low.</p> <h2>The significance of reversal patterns&nbsp;</h2> <p>By definition, trading reversal patterns should be more risky than trading continuation patterns, as it is safer to bet on the winning side. However, reversal patterns are considered to be more powerful since the trends tend to be the strongest in their initial phases.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> This is because initially one side of the market is more dominant, and therefore more successful in pushing the price into their desired direction. After some time, the balance becomes more even as the other side starts growing in the game. Finally, the change in the trend direction is taking place as the other side has now become more dominant.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Therefore, the market is telling us that the overall trend is nearing the end, and the price action is likely to change its course soon. Once the signals align and the likelihood of the market changing its course is high, reversal patterns offer&nbsp;<strong>a great R:R ratio</strong>.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The greatest limitation of reversal patterns is that you are still betting on the losing side so far. As an illustration, the buyers are in control in an uptrend. By hoping for a reversal, you are more inclined to put your faith in the sellers, which have been on the wrong side of the market so far. Thus, there is always a possibility of a market continuing in the same direction, despite signals that change is around the corner.&nbsp;</p> <h2>Types of reversal candlestick patterns</h2> <p>There are different forms in which the reversal can take place. We make a general distinction between the&nbsp;<em>bullish reversal patterns</em>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<em>bearish reversal patterns</em>. Here, we take a look at some of the most popular reversal candlestick patterns from both categories.</p> <h3>Bullish reversal candlestick patterns:</h3> <h4><strong>Double bottom&nbsp;</strong></h4> <p>The&nbsp;<strong><a data-di-id="di-id-3074e65-b7b0f7e2" href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/double-bottom-pattern/">double bottom</a></strong>&nbsp;pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs at the bottom of a downtrend and signals that the sellers, who were in control of the price action so far, are losing momentum. The pattern resembles the letter&nbsp;<strong>W&nbsp;</strong>due to the two-touched low and a change in the trend direction from a downtrend to an uptrend.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Double-bottom-pattern.jpg" /><br /> <br /> &nbsp;</p> <h4><strong>Triple bottom</strong></h4> <p>As the name itself says, the&nbsp;<a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/triple-bottom-pattern/"><strong>triple bottom</strong></a>&nbsp;consists of the three lows made at roughly the same price. It&rsquo;s&nbsp;a bullish reversal pattern that can be detected at the end of a downtrend. The pattern suggests an impending change in the trend direction after the sellers failed to break the support in three consecutive attempts.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Triple-bottom-pattern_1.jpg" /><br /> <br /> &nbsp;</p> <h4><strong>Inverse head and shoulders</strong></h4> <p>The bullish version of the traditional head and shoulders pattern is called the<strong>&nbsp;inverse head and shoulders</strong>&nbsp;formation. It&rsquo;s a bullish reversal pattern that can be seen at the end of a downtrend. The sellers have run out of gas as they were unable to continue the series of the lower lows, with the third low (the right shoulder) being at a higher level than the previous peak.</p> <p><img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Inverse-head-and-shoulders-pattern-(1).jpg" /><br /> <br /> After the creation of a first peak (the left shoulder), the price action rebounds modestly before continuing lower to create a lower low (the head). The price then again rebounds to a level similar to where the first rebound was finished, creating a base for the neckline to be drawn.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> What follows is another pullback to create a third low (the right shoulder), before the price action finally bursts higher, breaking the&nbsp;neckline resistance, and activating the inverse head and shoulders pattern.&nbsp;<br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>Strengths and weaknesses</h2> <p>Both versions of the pattern share the same strengths and weaknesses, as they only differ in the context of structure. Arguably, the greatest advantage of the head and shoulders pattern is that it defines clear areas to set risk levels and profit targets.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> Due to its design, the pattern offers a clearly defined&nbsp;stop loss, take profit,&nbsp;and entry levels. A trader should only follow the set of rules (described below) and make sure that they don&rsquo;t &ldquo;jump the gun&rdquo; and enter a trade before the neckline is broken.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> It&#39;s&nbsp;extremely important to stress&nbsp;that both the inverse and the traditional head and shoulders patterns only occur at the bottom of an uptrend or&nbsp;downtrend. This is a&nbsp;common mistake&nbsp;traders and analysts make. It doesn&rsquo;t matter that you drew a perfect head and shoulders pattern, if there is no prior uptrend or downtrend as both versions are reversal patterns.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The<strong>&nbsp;key limitation of the head and shoulders pattern</strong>&nbsp;is that a strong trend sometimes causes the price action to continue in the same direction despite the third peak/low being a lower high or higher bottom. In this case, the head and shoulders, or inverse head and shoulders, are seen as continuation patterns as the prevailing trend has resumed after taking a short break.</p> <h2 dir="ltr">Drawing the pattern</h2> <p>Unlike some other chart patterns, trading the success of the head and shoulder formation rests very much on how well you draw the initial pattern. As outlined earlier, this pattern offers a set of predefined levels, as you are actually trading&nbsp;<em>against the neckline</em>. Thus, drawing the pattern and identifying three key elements is the crucial part of the entire trading process.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The daily chart of USD/CAD shows a head and shoulders pattern that helps reverse the direction of a trend. The price action pushes higher, creating three consecutive peaks with the right shoulder slightly lower than the left shoulder. Still, there are two clear peaks on each side of the centre&nbsp;peak, with a slightly ascending trend line connecting two shoulders.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/head-and-shoulders-pic-3-(1).jpg" /><br /> <br /> You can see that we started in an aggressive uptrend and finished the pattern in a downtrend, with the bears ultimately erasing more than half of the earlier gains. A similar situation occurs with the inverse head and shoulders pattern lower.<br /> <br /> This is a NZD/USD daily chart&nbsp;where the sellers are pressing the price lower, creating a series of lows. The head is represented by a series of similar lows, while the two shoulders are sitting on each side of the head. Although the head usually consists of a single peak/low, we can also have rounded lows or peaks, as long as there are shoulders visible on each side of the head.<br /> <br /> You can see that we started in an aggressive uptrend and finished the pattern in a downtrend, with the bears ultimately erasing more than half of the earlier gains. A similar situation occurs with the inverse head and shoulders pattern lower.<br /> <br /> This is a NZD/USD daily chart&nbsp;where the sellers are pressing the price lower, creating a series of lows. The head is represented by a series of similar lows, while the two shoulders are sitting on each side of the head. Although the head usually consists of a single peak/low, we can also have rounded lows or peaks, as long as there are shoulders visible on each side of the head.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/head-and-shoulders-pic-4-(2).jpg" /><br /> <br /> You can see that the&nbsp;NZD/USD pair creates a new short term low (the lowest low of the head) before pushing higher to create a series of the higher lows before eventually surging higher above the neckline.<br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>Trading the head and shoulders pattern</h2> <p>We stated earlier that possibly&nbsp;the greatest advantage of this formation is that it offers precisely defined levels.<strong>&nbsp;The key is a neckline due to the three reasons:</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ol> <li>A break of the neckline activates the pattern. Before the neckline is broken, we consider the pattern to still be in the making.&nbsp;</li> <li>A neckline defines the stop loss i.e. after the breakout, any reverse move to the other side of the neckline activates the stop loss and automatically invalidates the pattern.&nbsp;</li> <li>A distance between the neckline and the head is measured to calculate the take profit.&nbsp;</li> </ol> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>We will now use the same two examples to give you a step-by-step guide on how to trade the head and shoulders and inverse head and shoulders patterns.<br /> <br /> Once we have drawn the pattern and identified three key elements of the formation, we monitor the&nbsp;<em>&ldquo;draft&rdquo;</em>&nbsp;pattern closely and wait for the bears to potentially break the neckline and activate the formation. There are two options for the head and shoulders pattern as far as the entry is concerned.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/head-and-shoulders-pic-5-(1).jpg" /><br /> <br /> &nbsp;</p> <p>The first option offers you a chance to enter a short trade as soon as the neckline is broken and the daily candle closes below the broken neckline. This option means that you can&rsquo;t miss a trade.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> However, this one is also riskier as this move lower can easily prove to be a failed breakdown. In this case, your stop-loss would be activated almost instantly.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The second option is prefered by the majority of the trading community. It&#39;s based on an idea that you should make an entry after the price action closes below the neckline and the breakdown is confirmed. Accordingly, the buyers will then push the price action to retest the neckline, the so-called&nbsp;<em>&ldquo;throwback&rdquo;</em>, before resuming lower.</p> <p><br /> Thus, you should place the entry when the throwback occurs.&nbsp;Of course, the price action can still return above the neckline, however, the chances are smaller than with the first option. The limitation of the second option is that the price action can simply resume lower without performing a throwback i.e. a retest of the neckline is not guaranteed&nbsp;<em>(see example 2 lower)</em>.<br /> <br /> USD/CAD closed below the neckline on a daily basis, then the buyers pushed the price higher the next day, before ultimately sliding lower. From the risk-reward perspective, this is a perfect scenario as you are given the opportunity to enter a trade on the retest.&nbsp;</p> <p><br /> Wherever you decided to place the entry, the stop-loss should be located above the neckline. You are advised to always allow for a cushion between the stop-loss and a neckline. As you can see in our example, the buyers were able to trade briefly above the neckline before getting rejected.&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr">The take profit is calculated by measuring the distance between the head and a neckline&nbsp;<em>(the green line)</em>, and then copy-pasting the same trend line starting from the neckline and extending lower. This way, you define the exact point at which the head and shoulders pattern should be completed.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr">Finally,&nbsp;<strong>our entry is at $1.2820</strong>, stop loss around $1.2860, while a take profit order is set at $1.2550. Hence, we risked 40 pips to make 270 pips, which is a phenomenal risk-reward ratio and the best evidence as to why the head and shoulders is such an effective reversal pattern.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr">We now move to our second example by explaining how to trade the inverse head and shoulders. In essence, we follow the same set of rules. Once we have drawn all the key elements, we are waiting for the NZD bulls to push the price higher.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/head-and-shoulders-pic-6-(1).jpg" /><br /> <br /> Earlier we discussed two options available to set your entry. This example belongs to the second option and it perfectly shows why this is a riskier option. As you can see, the bulls never returned to retest the broken neckline once the breakout occured. Hence, if you had opted to wait for a retest, you&rsquo;d have missed the trade.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> By choosing the first option, you&rsquo;d enter a trade once the daily close above the neckline has been secured. The stop loss is again placed below the neckline, while the blue line measures the distance for a take profit order. A few weeks later, the inverse head and shoulders pattern is completed. In this case, we risked 70 pips to gain around 200 pips, which makes a nearly 1:3 risk-reward ratio, meaning this was a very good setup from the risk tolerance perspective.</p>

6 min readBeginners
How to Use the Stochastic Oscillator

How to Use the Stochastic Oscillator

<p>One of the most basic and perhaps oldest indicators used by technical analysts is the&nbsp;<strong>stochastic oscillator.</strong>&nbsp;The stochastic oscillator is an indicator that measures momentum and the strength of a trend. Essentially, its job is to analyse price movement and show how strong the price move is.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The indicator measures the momentum of price, and also shows a slowing of momentum as the momentum of a financial instrument needs to slow down before changing direction. This addresses a weakness in retail trading, the fact that far too few traders pay attention to the importance of the rate of change.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The stochastic oscillator is one of the more common indicators, and it&rsquo;s one that you will see in a lot of analysis. However, like any other indicator it is simply a tool that you will be using to navigate through the forex markets, and like any other tool it is needed to be used in the proper settings and situations.&nbsp;</p> <h2>How to add the stochastic oscillator to MetaTrader charts</h2> <p>Adding the stochastic oscillator to the MetaTrader platform is very easy. By clicking on the&nbsp;<strong><em>Insert</em></strong>&nbsp;menu, you can pull down the list and click on&nbsp;<em><strong>Indicators</strong></em>, followed by&nbsp;<em><strong>Oscillators,</strong></em>&nbsp;and then&nbsp;<strong><em>Stochastic Oscillator</em></strong>. It&#39;s a common indicator, and as such it&#39;s built into the platform and there is no need to download from anywhere else.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Oscillator-picture-1.jpg" /><br /> <br /> The settings dialog box will pop up, and there are multiple parameters that you can change. The&nbsp;<strong>%K</strong>&nbsp;period and the&nbsp;<strong>%D</strong>&nbsp;period settings are available. The&nbsp;<strong>%K</strong>&nbsp;should be thought of as the slow value of the stochastic indicator and the&nbsp;<strong>%D</strong>&nbsp;should be thought of as the fast value of the stochastic indicator. It uses&nbsp;<em>a couple of moving averages</em>&nbsp;to measure the&nbsp;overall momentum.</p> <h2>Why does momentum matter?</h2> <p>Think back to your mathematics studies. One of the biggest influences in calculus is the absolute rate of change. The idea is that if the market is in an uptrend, but if the momentum starts to slow down, it can suggest that the market is running out of steam and, therefore, could be ripe for a reversal. In this sense, it can suggest whether or not the market is going to continue, or if it might be over-extended in one direction or the other, and other words&nbsp;<em>overbought</em>&nbsp;or&nbsp;<em>oversold</em>.</p> <h2>Using the indicator to make decisions</h2> <p>The stochastic oscillator has a multitude of uses when it comes to trading forex. We have already mentioned the most obvious use for the stochastic oscillator: the idea of identifying overbought or oversold conditions. In this scenario, the stochastic oscillator is best used in a range bound market, as it can tell you when to buy and sell in a relatively well defined situation.<br /> <br /> When you look at the stochastic oscillator window at the bottom of the chart, you see the two moving averages going back and forth in an up and down pattern. You will notice that there are two lines in the indicator window including the 80 and the 20 level.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The&nbsp;<strong>area above the 80 level</strong>&nbsp;is considered to be&nbsp;<em>overbought</em>, while the&nbsp;<strong>area below the 20 level</strong>&nbsp;is considered to be&nbsp;<em>oversold</em>. Furthermore, you need to see the moving averages inside the stochastic oscillator to cross in the overbought or oversold areas in order to get a reversal signal. Anything between the two levels is essentially ignored in this scenario.</p> <p><img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Oscillator-picture-2.jpg" /><br /> <br /> &nbsp;</p> <p>Looking at the chart, you can see that the stochastic oscillator had several moves back and forth between the 80 and the 20 levels. However, there are only a couple of areas where the indicator either broke into the overbought area or the oversold area and had a cross. You need both of these things to happen in order for it to fire off a signal.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In the graphic below, you can see that the signals fired off are color-coded by the arrows, with the red showing an overbought condition and a potential selling opportunity, and the blue showing potential buying opportunities in an oversold condition.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It should be noted that using the stochastic oscillator in this way is much more reliable when in a sideways market, preferably between significant support and resistance. This makes the stochastic oscillator truly important, because statistically speaking markets are in some type of consolidation or sideways action more than 70% of the time. In other words, it&rsquo;s much more common to be in this environment than it is to be out of it.&nbsp;</p> <h2>Measuring divergence</h2> <p>Another way that people use the stochastic oscillator in forex trading is to measure for divergence. The idea is that as with any oscillator, you could see momentum going in a different direction than the overall price. As an example, the momentum could be rising while price is falling or vice versa. If you are in a scenario where price is rising but the momentum is slowing, that means that there is less aggression to the upside and therefore less demand, even as prices press higher. This can be a sign that potential trouble is on its way.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Take a look at the chart just below. You can see that there is a clear uptrend line on the four hour chart for the GBP/AUD pair. As the price was rising, though, notice that the stochastic oscillator made a&nbsp;<em>lower high</em>, which is the opposite of an uptrend. This suggests that the rate of change is slowing down, therefore one would have to be a bit suspicious about the efficacy of the move.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>After all, if there is less momentum, it suggests that there are fewer fresh orders coming in to push the market to the upside. Ultimately, you can see that shortly after the diversions with the&nbsp;<em>lower high</em>&nbsp;in the stochastic oscillator, the market broke down below the trend line and then eventually fell from those levels. Divergence can be found in several indicators, essentially the oscillator family. Because of this, using your divergence spotting skills can work in multiple other oscillators as well, as they all essentially work the same in this scenario.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/Oscillator-pic-3.jpg" /></p>

6 min readBeginners
What is the Average True Range (ATR) indicator?

What is the Average True Range (ATR) indicator?

<p>The&nbsp;<strong>Average True Range indicator</strong>, or&nbsp;<strong>ATR</strong>, is an indicator that measures the market volatility of a financial asset by analysing the range of price for a defined period of candles. It is used as a measure of volatility and is quite often used by traders to determine how far a particular move may go.<br /> <br /> While it can be used with any timeframe, the original form of ATR was used on a daily chart to analyse the range of the last 14 days.<br /> <br /> The ATR suggests if a market is overbought or oversold, specifically whether or not it has moved much further than it typically would.<br /> <br /> It is quite common for short-term prop traders to base their position on whether or not the market is likely to continue going forward before closing out to go home. Longer-term traders tend to use it on higher time frames to see when a potential pullback or bounce could occur.<br /> <br /> Adding the ATR to your charts on MT4 and MT5 In order to add the Average True Range indicator to your&nbsp;charts, you need to click the &#39;Insert&#39; menu, the &lsquo;Indicators&rsquo; submenu, the &lsquo;Oscillators&rsquo; submenu, and then choose &lsquo;Average True Range&rsquo;.<br /> <br /> Once you do this, you will see the indicator open up on a window underneath the price, just as you would any other oscillator.<br /> <br /> In this example below, you can see that the ATR shows a signal line that goes up and down, in this case with the lowest band being the 0.0108 level, with the 0.0318 level above being the top range.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/average_true-_range_1.png" /></p> <p dir="ltr">Notice how the line goes up and down, and this is the crux of the indicator.<br /> <br /> At the top left corner of the ATR section, you can see that it has the reading of 0.0309, telling us that the GBP/AUD pair has an average range of 309 pips per candle over the last 14 candles.<br /> <br /> In this example, that means 309 pips per day:<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/atr_2.png" /><br /> <br /> Now that the indicator is attached to your charting platform, we can start to discuss how this can become crucial information for those looking to trade the currency markets.</p> <h2 dir="ltr">How to use the ATR</h2> <p dir="ltr">The most common way is to pay attention to how big a move the market could potentially make during a given trading session.<br /> <br /> For example, think about the GBP/AUD pair mentioned previously. If the average range of trading during the previous 14 days was 309 pips, this is crucial information if you are trading short-term charts.<br /> <br /> For example, wouldn&rsquo;t it be valuable information to know whether or not a market was likely to continue moving further after making an initial charge?<br /> <br /> If you find yourself in an uptrend that has already moved 290 pips, then you know it&rsquo;s very unlikely that we will continue further, all things being equal.<br /> <br /> Obviously, this doesn&rsquo;t have to be the case, but it is one way that short-term traders will gauge whether or not they should stay in a move.<br /> <br /> On the other hand, in that same scenario you may have seen that the market has rallied 45 pips, but has the ATR reading of 309. In that scenario, a short-term trader will typically look at this as an opportunity to hang onto the trade for a bigger move.<br /> <br /> Granted, some traders will use the five-minute chart to trade, and the one-hour chart for the ATR. Others will use the daily chart to figure this out, just as the example above shows. In the end, it comes down to your&nbsp;trading style.<br /> &nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>ATR can give you an idea of how far a move can go</li> <li>ATR does and can change in extreme conditions</li> <li>ATR measures the size of the range, not necessarily the direction</li> </ul> <p dir="ltr"><br /> When you place a trade and the ATR is added at an extraordinarily low level, this tells you the trading opportunities are probably going to be short-term at best, and for small profits.<br /> <br /> Quite often, traders will scan multiple charts to see what the ATR reading is, and therefore look for those with larger readings. This means there are more possibilities and therefore more profits if you get it right. Some traders will also recognise that a reading that is expanding to the upside could also lead to longer term trades if so inclined.</p> <h2 dir="ltr">The EMA and the ATR</h2> <p dir="ltr">As with most indicators, the ATR should be used just on its own. Without a doubt, the most important thing on a chart is price. Furthermore, trends should be paid attention to as well.<br /> <br /> This is where the EMA comes and as it defines a trend quite plainly. Take a look at the chart below:<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/atr_3.png" /><br /> <br /> Notice that the 20-day EMA has been sloping lower for several months. You can see clearly that the market had initially used it as support, but then found it to be rather resistive.<br /> <br /> Beyond that, the ATR reading was relatively low until the last couple of weeks. Notice how the ATR is expanding. This is crucial information for&nbsp;short-term traders, and they will certainly use this daily chart as a bit of a guideline for day trading the NZD/CHF pair.<br /> <br /> By paying attention to the overall trend in the fact that volatility is certainly growing, short-term traders will be able to sell this market on signs of exhaustion and take advantage of the downtrend overall. You can see clearly that sellers had been in control, even though there were times where the market rallied a bit, but they also sold after that short-term rally.<br /> <br /> For the shorter-term trader, this market has offered plenty of opportunities due to not only trading with the overall downtrend but recognising that the market is starting to expand its reach per session. In this particular example, the market had initially been moving at roughly 37 pips a day, but by the time the trader started to see extreme volatility, it had increased to an average of 107 pips a day.<br /> <br /> For those trading short-term charts, a range that is over 100 pips per session offered plenty of room for trades to move. In this sense, the ATR has nothing to do with your system, it just gives you an idea as to whether or not there is plenty of opportunity in the particular currency pair.<br /> <br /> For example, the trader that uses the ATR indicator to tell how far a market could move might be trading the five minute charts, shorting every shooting star candlestick formation that they see. They may also use something like a large, round, psychologically significant figure on that same short-term chart. By only selling and hanging onto trades for longer as the ATR has risen, they are on the right side of the trade, and are collecting more profits than they may have if they had not used the Average True Range indicator.<br /> <br /> The Average True Range indicator is also used for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/en/learn-to-trade/intermediate/stop-losses-and-take-profits/">stop loss placement</a>.<br /> <br /> For example, if the Average True Range is 100 pips, then those placing a trade off of the daily chart could for example place a stop loss 100 pips from the entry, knowing that if the market were to go 100 pips against you, something has certainly changed as far as volatility is concerned, and it most certainly is working against you. If that&rsquo;s going to be the case, then it&rsquo;s time to bail out of the marketplace.<br /> <br /> Depending on what your risk appetite is, you can adjust your position size to fit that 100 pip ATR. In other words, if you have a 2% risk appetite per trade, then you just make sure that the 100 pips that you are basing your trade off of as far as the stop loss is concerned, doesn&rsquo;t measure more than 2% of your account.</p> <h2 dir="ltr">Some things to pay attention to</h2> <p dir="ltr">As mentioned in the bullet points above, the Average True Range indicator doesn&rsquo;t tell you which direction the price of a security is going, only that it is moving more or less as opposed to the range. This is the range between the low and the high of the day and doesn&rsquo;t take into account&nbsp;<a href="/en/trading-academy/indicators-and-patterns/japanese-candlesticks/">the shape of the candlestick</a>, as an example.<br /> <br /> The Average True Range indicator is used by a lot of professional traders. They don&rsquo;t tend to hold trades over the longer term, unless they are part of some type of investment firm. Your typical prop trader or day trader is going to be flat overnight, so they don&rsquo;t have to worry about positions while sleeping.<br /> <br /> Beyond that, the ATR gives them an idea of how much the market is going to move per session, so they can use that in the morning when they show up.<br /> <br /> A lot of the same traders will scan the charts first thing in the morning to get an idea as to which markets offer the most opportunity. Remember, as a trader you need to see volatility in order to make money. A currency pair that has a very low ATR typically is an offering much in the way of profits, unless of course you are looking for some type of grinding and range bound market, which there are strategies built for.<br /> <br /> Nonetheless, most traders don&rsquo;t trade like that so the higher the ATR reading, the typically more attractive the pair will be. That being said, it also can suggest that there is more danger. Remember, where there is risk, there is reward but you need to do so in an intelligent manner, which is where using the ATR as an idea for the stop loss comes into play.<br /> <br /> Unlike other oscillators, ATR doesn&rsquo;t necessarily offer much in the way of divergence trading, which is a standard of other ones such as:<br /> &nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>The MACD</li> <li>Stochastic Oscillator</li> <li>Commodity Channel Index</li> </ul> <p dir="ltr"><br /> In the past few years, some traders have found that using a longer-term ATR as being effective.<br /> <br /> One of the more common readings is 20 candles, but the default reading is 14. Some longer-term trend traders will even use higher timeframe reading such as 50 on a daily chart. As the 50 day EMA is very common, quite often you will see a 50 ATR on a daily chart married with the 50-day EMA.<br /> <br /> In the chart below, you can see how the 50-day EMA keeps you on the right side of the trend, and the ATR tells you when it&rsquo;s time to expect bigger moves and hanging onto that short-term trade a little longer. Notice how the ATR was relatively sideways for a while, right along with the 50 day EMA. As the 50 day EMA is starting to rollover, the ATR is climbing rapidly, which of course leads to trading opportunities.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/atr_4.png" /><br /> <br /> While the ATR isn&rsquo;t necessarily the most sophisticated approach to technical analysis, it can keep you out of serious trouble. If you have missed a market move, you know it is very unlikely that entering a new trade would make sense.<br /> <br /> Another thing to think about is that algorithms tend to use ATR a lot as well, as they focus on short-term setups typically. Because of this, it can also keep you on the correct side of prop shops and larger short-term funds.<br /> &nbsp;</p>

6 min readBeginners
How to Use the DeMarker Indicator

How to Use the DeMarker Indicator

<p>The&nbsp;<strong>DeMarker</strong>&nbsp;indicator, better known as&nbsp;<em>DeM</em>, is a technical indicator that measures the demand for the underlying asset. It was named after a prominent technical analyst&nbsp;<em>Thomas DeMark</em>&nbsp;who created the indicator.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> In this blog post, we will provide you with all the necessary information on the DeMarker indicator, how to identify potential changes in the trend direction, and share tips on how to incorporate the DeMarker indicator in your daily trading routine.<br /> <br /> Applying the DeMarker indicator into the&nbsp;<a data-di-id="di-id-1bc62d1f-8ec6ac8f" href="/en/metatrader5">MetaTrader5 (MT5) trading platform</a>&nbsp;is quite easy. Simply choose the indicator from the drop-down menu under indicators &gt; Oscillators &gt; DeMarker.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/DeMarker-Image-1.jpg" /><br /> <br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>What it looks like</h2> <p>DeM compares the most recent maximum and minimum prices to the previous period&#39;s equivalent price. In essence, the indicator generates values to help you identify&nbsp;<em>the directional bias of the market</em>, and potential changes in the trend direction. Unlike some other oscillators, DeMarker consists of a single fluctuating curve.<br /> <br /> As it belongs to the family of&nbsp;<em>oscillators</em>, DeMarker generates values from 0 to 1, although some variants of the indicator have a 100 and -100 scale. In the standard setting, values closer to 0 show an extreme oversold condition while readings closer to 1 read extreme overbought market conditions.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In this setting, which is a default setting on MT4, the base value is 0.5, while the default time span for the calculation of values is 14 periods.<br /> <br /> The default setting has overbought and oversold lines set at 0.7 and 0.3, respectively. When the reading stays in between these two levels, DeM indicates that the market is likely trading sideways and implies lower volatility.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> On the other hand, trips above 0.7 and below 0.3 indicate a more trending market. The closer the value gets to 0 or 1, the higher the change of a price turn as the market is trading in an extreme environment.&nbsp;</p> <p><br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/DeMarker-Image-2.jpg" /><br /> &nbsp;</p> <p>DeM works in a similar fashion as the&nbsp;Relative Strength Index (RSI), the leading oscillator indicator. However, DeM focuses on intra-period maximum recorded highs and lows, rather than closing levels.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> DeMarker values are calculated by the following formula:<br /> <br /> DEM = SMA(DeMMAX) [SMA(DeMMAX) + SMA(DeMMIN)], where:<br /> <br /> DEM stands for DeMarker<br /> &nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>DeMMAX</strong>&nbsp;- records the difference between the current high and previous high over the number of X periods</li> <li><strong>DeMMIN</strong>&nbsp;- records the difference between the current low and previous low over the number of X periods</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>You may want to try trading using the MetaTrader 5 platform to get more familiar with the DeMarker indicator and how it&rsquo;s best used, before you can start using its signals in your daily trading routine.</p> <h2>Strengths and Weaknesses of This Indicator</h2> The main advantage of the DeM indicator is its reliability. DeMarker is probably less prone to distortions, compared to some other movement indicators. The indicator&rsquo;s most important use case is informing the trader of an imminent change in the price direction, and hence offering a chance to capitalise on probable imminent price trends.<br /> <br /> Moreover, DeM is used by traders to identify market tops and bottoms, assess the volatility and associated risk, and most importantly, to inform us when the market trades in the overbought and oversold market conditions.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> On the other hand, DeMarker shares the same weakness with other oscillators. Despite the fact that its readings are showing an overbought or oversold market, these readings can always get to more extreme levels.&nbsp; <p>For instance, if USD/JPY trades in an uptrend and DeM current value is 0.75, it signals that the market is overbought and a change in the trend direction is likely. However, USD/JPY may gain additional 200 pips and push DeM into 0.9, for instance, before&nbsp;<strong>starting to reverse</strong>.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> Thus, signals from DeMarker are&nbsp;<strong>not enough to predict a reversal</strong>. For this reason, it is often used in combination with other technical indicators.</p> <h2>How to use DeMarker in trading</h2> <p dir="ltr">In essence, the DeMarker is a&nbsp;<em>contrarian technical indicator</em>. As we outlined earlier, it works to identify overbought and oversold market conditions, pointing towards potential changes in the price direction.&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p>Thus, we are now deploying the DeMarker indicator to identify potential price levels where a change in the price direction may occur soon. Here we have a<strong>&nbsp;USD/JPY</strong>&nbsp;daily&nbsp;<strong>chart</strong>&nbsp;that trades in a downtrend as the price action has been creating a series of the lower highs and lower lows.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/DeMarker-Image-3.jpg" /><br /> <br /> &nbsp;</p> <p>As noted earlier, DeM is best used in combination with other technical indicators. For this reason, we have the Fibonacci extensions deployed to identify support levels where the sellers may hit an impasse, providing the buyers with an opportunity to drive the price action higher.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The blue arrow shows the moment the price action touches the 127.2% Fibonacci extension support, signalling that the buyers are likely to step in at this price level, and drive the price higher. In addition, the sellers are likely to exit their profitable trades at this point as well.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> In the meantime, we see that DeMarker has a reading of 0.277, which shows that the market has entered an oversold territory. At this moment, we have a confluence of two bullish signals - market is oversold according to DeMarker, and the price action has approached the first Fibonacci extension support.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> Hence, this strategy is based on deploying additional indicators, alongside DeMarker, to identify spots where the price action may start reversing.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> Entry should be placed at the point where 127.2% is first touched, while stop-loss is located around 40-50 pips below this level to protect against whipsaw losses resulting from knee-jerk market reactions.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> Take profit is set at the starting point of the Fibonacci extension i.e. where the big horizontal support is located. From this point, the market had started moving higher, before the bears erased all gains and pushed the price action below this important support level.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> Our assumption is that the market will want to return to the &ldquo;crime scene&rdquo; and retest the same level, but now in the context of resistance. This is what eventually happens and our trade is finally closed. We managed to bank in around 200 pips, while risking 50 or pips or less. This is a great risk-reward ratio.<br /> <br /> This example shows how to mix DeMarker with other technical tools. You may want to&nbsp;<a data-di-id="di-id-e6b992d-78cec0b5" href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual/demo">open a open a demo account</a>, and start using this simple, but effective trading strategy.&nbsp;</p> <h2>Summary</h2> <p>The&nbsp;<strong>DeMarker</strong>&nbsp;indicator, or DeM, is a&nbsp;<em>technical tool</em>&nbsp;deployed by traders to measure the demand for the underlying asset. As an oscillator, it generates values from 0 to 1, where value of 0.7 or higher shows an overbought market while readings of 0.3 or below signal that the market is oversold and change in the price direction is imminent.<br /> <br /> DeM is designed to compare&nbsp;<em>the most recent maximum and minimum prices</em>&nbsp;to the previous period&#39;s equivalent price. This way, DeMarker helps you identify the directional bias of the market and potential changes in the trend direction. As other technical indicators, it is best used in combination with other tools.</p>

6 min readBeginners
How do Heikin Ashi candles work?

How do Heikin Ashi candles work?

<p><strong>Heikin Ashi&nbsp;</strong>is a Japanese term that means &ldquo;average bar&rdquo;.<br /> <br /> Heikin Ashi candles are a modified way of displaying data on your candlestick chart, most notably the ability to smooth out volatility of a currency pair - allowing you to build more sophisticated trading strategies.<br /> <br /> A typical candlestick chart will both show the overall trend and how volatile the markets were in a particular candlestick itself.<br /> <br /> Heikin Ashi smooths out the price action on a chart by displaying values using averages to create something that does look very similar to the candlestick, but without a lot of noise.<br /> <br /> The main purpose of using the Heikin Ashi indicator is to see past the choppiness and volatility that is so common in the markets. The Heikin Ashi candles will apply a mathematical formula in order to give a clear picture of whether or not the market is in a bullish or bearish trend.</p> <h2>How Heikin Ashi is calculated</h2> <p>While the traditional bar or candlestick chart plots the open, close, high, and low of a time period, the Heikin Ashi calculates these values slightly differently.<br /> <br /> The Heikin Ashi formula used to come up with the average values on each candle is:<br /> &nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>Open of candle:</strong>&nbsp;(open of previous bar + close of previous bar) / 2</li> <li><strong>Close of candle:</strong>&nbsp;(open + high + low + close) / 4</li> <li><strong>High of candle:&nbsp;</strong>the maximum value from the high, open, or even close of the current period</li> <li><strong>Low of candle:</strong>&nbsp;the lowest value from the low, open, or close of the current period</li> </ul> <p dir="ltr"><br /> As you can see, this is quite different from just plotting the values as usual. This helps slow down the churn and keeps the same trend visualised for longer.<br /> <br /> While the indicator is slow to change, it does help keep the trade going longer when on the correct side of it.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/heikin_ashi_1.png" /><br /> &nbsp;</p>

6 min readBeginners
How does the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator work?

How does the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator work?

<p>If you are looking to find the demand for a financial asset, you need to be able to track monetary flows in and out of the markets.<br /> <br /> The<strong>&nbsp;Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator</strong>&nbsp;is used to measure supply and demand, which is usually the simplest way to determine where a market may be going.<br /> <br /> Note that this indicator was initially designed to work with the stock markets, as forex markets are not centralised, and therefore some of the inputs will be different to the original scenarios many traders had been using in equities.<br /> <br /> The basic premise is that if demand for a particular currency is high but supply is limited, prices will rise as bidding increases.<br /> <br /> This is the same as any other bidding process: if there are more people wanting to own something, people will try to outbid each other.<br /> <br /> Of course, the opposite is true as well: when demand drops, sellers have to drop prices to attract buyers. The Money Flow Index indicator is a popular method of viewing how these forces interact with the markets.</p> <h2>The calculation</h2> <p>The indicator uses a couple of different mathematical equations in order to find where the market may be ready to go.<br /> <br /> The equation seeks to find the &lsquo;Typical Price&rsquo; by determining in the mean of the high, the low, and the closing prices for the time period in question.<br /> <br /> In mathematical notation:<br /> <strong>TP = (H+L+C) / 3</strong><br /> I.e.&nbsp;<u>the Typical Price equals the high, low, and close divided by three</u>.<br /> <br /> The next part of the calculation takes in what is known as money flow.<br /> <br /> This takes the typical price and then multiplies it by volume. There&rsquo;s no way to know in a non-centralised market exactly how much volume is being done, but by using the volume at your broker, you get a fair representation of what the larger market should be.<br /> <br /> The next equation:<br /> <strong>MF = TP x V</strong><br /> Or,&nbsp;<u>Money Flow equals Typical Price multiplied by Volume</u>.<br /> <br /> The next part of the calculation looks at positive and negative flows over the quantity of periods that the indicator is set towards, known as money ratio.<br /> <br /> The indicator defines positive money flow as being any candle where the Typical Price is higher than the previous candle.<br /> <br /> Conversely, negative money flow is when any candle has TP lower than the previous candle.<br /> <br /> To get the positive money flow for the indicator, the calculation is to add up the total positive money flows over the time span in question.<br /> <br /> Ultimately, to get the negative money flow for the indicator, the calculation is of course to add up the total negative money flows over the same time span.<br /> <br /> The equation is:<br /> <strong>MR = positive money flow / negative money flow.</strong><br /> Finally, everything is converted into an index using the following mathematical formula:<br /> &nbsp;<br /> <strong>MFI = 100 - 100 / (1 + MR)</strong><br /> In other words,&nbsp;<u>the Monetary Flow Index is a ratio of positive money flow into an asset compared to the total money flow</u>.<br /> <br /> The indicator of course shows this for you, and you don&rsquo;t have to do the math behind it, as it is built into the&nbsp;<a data-di-id="di-id-8ed17442-be85d085" href="/en/metatrader4/">MetaTrader 4 platform</a>.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The default measurement is 14, meaning that if you are looking at a daily chart, the Money Flow Index is giving you a reading of the last 14 days. If it is on the hourly chart, it is reading the last 14 hours, and so on.</p> <h2>How to attach the Money Flow Index indicator</h2> <p>To use the Money Flow Index indicator on the MetaTrader 4 or 5 platform, go to the &#39;Insert&#39; menu then go to the &#39;Indicators&#39; submenu, followed by the &#39;Volumes&#39; submenu, and selecting &#39;Money Flow Index&#39;.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The indicator will show up in its own window at the bottom of your platform.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/money_flow_index_001.png" /><br /> <br /> At this point, you can start to look for opportunities using the Money Flow Index.<br /> <br /> Using the indicator&nbsp; The MFI indicator is used to indicate when a market is overbought or oversold. In the indicator, you will notice there are two levels marked by dashed lines of 20 and 80, with the absolute highs at the 100 level, and the absolute lows are 0.<br /> <br /> When the line is above 90, the market is possibly overbought. Conversely, the indicator moving below the 20 level suggests that the market is oversold.<br /> <br /> Let&rsquo;s look at the chart below.<br /> <br /> The red arrow points out where the indicator has broken above the 80 level, suggesting an overbought condition. Shortly afterwards, the EUR/GBP pair dropped.<br /> <br /> After that, you can see there was a bounce where the blue arrow marks the Money Flow Index dropping below 20.<br /> <br /> While there is just a short term bounce, there is a bounce, nonetheless. This can often be filtered by something along the lines of a moving average, or even a trendline.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/mfi_002.png" /><br /> <br /> <strong>To summarise:</strong></p> <ul> <li>The 80 level is where a market enters an &ldquo;overbought&rdquo; condition</li> <li>The 20 level is where a market enters an &ldquo;oversold&rdquo; condition</li> <li>The indicator is built into the MetaTrader 4/5 platforms, as well as many others</li> <li>The default reading will be for the last 14 candles, but can be changed</li> <li>The Money Flow Index is often used with other indicators as well</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Adding an additional filter&nbsp;</h2> <p>Many traders choose to compliment the MFI indicator with a moving average.<br /> <br /> This is because the moving average can keep you on the right side of a trend.<br /> <br /> If you are looking for an indication of an overbought or oversold condition within the Money Flow Index indicator, this can be validated by a move above or below a moving average.<br /> <br /> Let&rsquo;s look at the below four-hour chart in the Canadian dollar/Japanese yen currency pair.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/mfi_003.png" /><br /> <br /> The blue arrow indicates where the Money Flow Index indicator reached the oversold condition. Shortly after that, the price crossed above the 20 exponential moving average, one that is commonly used.<br /> <br /> The way to think about this move is that the market had gotten oversold, and then by breaking above a common moving average, it shows that the momentum and trend is starting to change to the upside.<br /> <br /> At that point, most traders would enter a position.<br /> <br /> Later on, in the same chart, you can see that the Money Flow Index indicator had entered the overbought condition, and the price shortly thereafter fell below the 20 EMA.<br /> <br /> That tells you that the shift is starting to gain momentum, and the market starts to fall from there. Ultimately, this keeps you in the loop when it comes to a potential trend change, and then gives you confirmation in a one-two set up.<br /> <br /> In another example, we can apply the Bollinger Band indicator to the chart, looking for signs of oversold or overbought conditions from both indicators.<br /> <br /> <img alt="" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/mfi_004.png" /><br /> <br /> Looking at the chart, you can see where the blue arrows start that the market has broken below the oversold level, followed very quickly by the market breaking below the bottom of the Bollinger Band indicator.<br /> <br /> This shows that the market is oversold as far as the Money Flow Index indicator is concerned, but more importantly it is also oversold with both indicators.<br /> <br /> By breaking the bottom of the Bollinger Band indicator, it now is two standard deviations below its average price.<br /> <br /> With both of these indicators you have the ability to see a slowdown in volume going into the market, and at the same time you can see that the market is statistically farther away from normalcy than it should be.<br /> <br /> This almost always sets up for a &lsquo;reversion to the mean&rsquo;, demonstrated by the moving average in the middle of the Bollinger Band indicator.<br /> <br /> However, some people will also aim for the top of the indicator: it boils down to your own personal trading style.<br /> &nbsp;</p>

6 min readBeginners

Indicators and patterns

Discover how to identify potential trading opportunities by reading and analysing charts effectively.