Trading the trade wars
Your opportunity to trade global tension
Tariffs disrupt markets - don’t stay on the sidelines
Trade wars shake supply chains, push up prices, and rattle job markets. But as a trader, you can turn uncertainty into opportunity.
Explore how stocks, currencies, and commodities react and position yourself to potentially profit from policy-driven price moves.
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Trading the war: What’s happening now?
Market spotlight: Trade wars in action
As of April 10, 2025, Trump’s sweeping tariffs on China are in full force, and China has fired back. Trade between the two has nearly ground to a halt. A 10% base tariff remains on most other countries, and if nothing changes, paused tariffs could return soon, dragging global markets even lower.
If leaders back down, markets could bounce. If they hold the line, traders are likely to short risk assets and brace for weaker economic data ahead.
US stocks: Navigating tariff headwinds
The US presidential elections can significantly affect various sectors of the stock market based on the policy suggestions of the candidates.
Apple (AAPL)
Dropped 34% from highs due to manufacturing reliance on China (70%) and India (15%). With potential EU tariffs ahead, costs are climbing — but its global brand power still makes Apple a strategic trade.
Nike (NKE)
Struggled even before tariffs. Direct-to-consumer shift upset retail partners, and new rivals gained ground. Now manufacturing in Asia and boycotts in China are threatening 19% of revenue. A new CEO and Kim Kardashian collaboration may help, but the pressure is still on.
Tesla (TSLA)
China makes up 22.5% of Tesla’s revenue but political tensions and Elon’s public image are weighing. Production is spread across the US, China, and Germany, but tariffs hit hard. Sentiment in Europe and Asia continues to slide.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Down 30% as semiconductor tariffs raise costs. Despite being central to the AI boom, Nvidia's reliance on overseas manufacturing and falling Chinese demand is a growing concern, though it remains a favourite for long-term tech exposure.
General Motors (GM)
Facing an 18% drop YTD due to auto tariffs. Imports 45% of US-sold vehicles from tariff-hit countries. With 83% of revenue coming from the US, it's somewhat shielded, but cost pressures and EV investments make this one to watch.
Forex: Currency moves
AUDUSD
Australia’s economy is closely tied to China (26% of trade). With tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese exports to the US and collapsing commodity prices, AUD remains under pressure.
NZDUSD
It’s volatile but still attractive for traders. Tied to firm commodity prices and China’s demand, the Kiwi struggles as Chinese growth slows, though easing inflation in the US supports short-term upside.
USDJPY
The yen is strengthening as a global safe haven. Japan’s inflation and wage growth hint at further rate hikes, and US accusations of currency manipulation are fuelling the fire.
EURUSD
The euro is rising as Germany ramps up infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, the US is facing global pushback over Trump’s expansionist talk. A capital shift from US to EU could continue to drive EUR strength.
Turn headlines into trading opportunities
Indices: What do the charts say?
The US presidential elections can significantly affect various sectors of the stock market based on the policy suggestions of the candidates.
S&P 500
The barometer for US economic health. A bounce here signals belief in easing tariffs. But if tensions stay high, recession risks rise, and this index could take the hit. The Fed’s hands-off approach is seen by some as a silent protest.
Nasdaq 100
More tech, less manufacturing, but still exposed. Companies like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft are vulnerable to global supply chain shocks. A high-risk, high-reward play tied to rate expectations and global sentiment.
Commodities: Gold and oil in focus
Gold (XAUUSD)
Investors are leaning into gold as a hedge. Trade war uncertainty, inflation fears, and falling confidence in USD assets are all boosting demand. Caution: if stocks drop sharply, gold might briefly dip due to margin calls — but overall momentum remains strong.
Oil (WTIBrent)
Demand is falling fast. Tariffs are choking global trade, slowing industrial activity, and dragging oil down. With OPEC+ increasing supply by 400,000 barrels/day, prices face serious pressure unless a major deal or production cut emerges.