Australian Broker Moves 9 July


A selection of ratings upgrades and downgrades, target price changes, and commentary for ASX stocks from major research houses for 9 July.



In the big brokers' spotlight today, miners Northern Star Resources (NST), Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR), and IGO following production updates, and Alumina (AWC) after it reported news relating to an Australian Tax Office ruling.

Note also, Morgan Stanley's massive upgrade of its target price for Afterpay (APT) from $36 to $101.
 
Agl Energy Limited. AGL Credit Suisse lowers Agl Energy Limited. (AGL) price target from $14.80 to $13.70. Retains underperform rating. Predicts falling wholesale prices will hurt earnings from FY21.
Afterpay Limited APT Morgan Stanley raises Afterpay Limited (APT) price target from $36 to $101. Upgrades rating from equalweight to overweight. Cites accelerating sales growth, better than expected quality control on customers.
Alumina Limited AWC Citi lowers Alumina Limited (AWC) price target from $1.80 to $1.60. Downgrades rating from buy to neutral. Downgrades CY20/21 earnings by approx. 4% on the back of higher AUD forecasts.
Alumina Limited AWC Macquarie retains underperform rating on Alumina Limited (AWC). Retains $1.20 price target. Cites concerns regarding transfer pricing review undertaken by the Australian Taxation Office.
Alumina Limited AWC Credit Suisse retains neutral rating on Alumina Limited (AWC). Retains $1.65 price target. Notes market is overlooking the potential of AWC defending position regarding ATO transfer pricing ruling.
Alumina Limited AWC Morgan Stanley retains overweight rating on Alumina Limited (AWC). Retains $2.00 price target. Expects Alcoa to contest ATO ruling. If successful, possible upside because has transferred 50% of the tax assessed amount ($107m) to the ATO as prepaid tax asset on the balance sheet.
Alumina Limited AWC UBS retains buy rating on Alumina Limited (AWC). Retains $2.00 price target. Notes not surprised by transfer pricing ruling.
Breville Group Limited BRG Morgans initiates add rating on Breville Group Limited (BRG). Initiates $27 price target. Notes global exposure, new products and trends since covid-19 around coffee at home as growth drivers.
City Chic Collective Limited CCX Macquarie raises City Chic Collective Limited (CCX) price target from $3.13 to $3.57. Retains outperform rating. Broker believes potential acquisitions may help margins.
Csl Limited CSL Credit Suisse retains outperform rating on Csl Limited (CSL). Retains $323 price target. Sees upside for CSL's response to flu vaccines.
Crown Resorts Limited CWN Credit Suisse lowers Crown Resorts Limited (CWN) price target from $12 to $10.80. Retains outperform rating. Cites growth profile and low gearing.
Damstra Holdings Limited DTC Citi raises Damstra Holdings Limited (DTC) price target from $1.70 to $1.80.   
Damstra Holdings Limited DTC Morgan Stanley raises Damstra Holdings Limited (DTC) price target from $1.70 to $1.80. Retains overweight rating. Broker believes pace of acquisitions is rapid, would prefer more organic growth.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd FMG RBC Capital Markets upgrades Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) rating from underperform to sector perform.  Says "higher Chinese demand has placed iron ore into a more balanced market than our previously too conservative forecasts suggested."
Gwa Group Limited. GWA Macquarie lowers Gwa Group Limited. (GWA) price target from $3.90 to $2.90. Retains neutral rating. Expects weaker FY21 before an improvement in FY22.
Insurance Australia Group Limited IAG Citi retains buy rating on Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG). Retains $6.60 price target. Expects higher than usual uncertainty in IAG's FY21E guidance. Expects final dividend, and should be around 6 cents per share.
Igo Limited IGO Morgan Stanley retains equalweight rating on Igo Limited (IGO). Retains $4.95 price target. Notes production guidance was ahead of expectations.
Igo Limited IGO UBS retains buy rating on Igo Limited (IGO). Retains $6.20 price target. Notes copper and cobalt production better than expected, gold slightly worse. Likes nickel exposure.
Livetiles Limited LVT Citi raises Livetiles Limited (LVT) price target from $0.28 to $0.29. Retains neutral rating. Predicts revenue to be hit by stronger AUD. 
Northern Star Resources Ltd NST Credit Suisse retains outperform rating on Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST). Retains $14.70 price target. Notes attractive free cash flow.
Northern Star Resources Ltd NST Macquarie retains neutral rating on Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST). Retains $14.40 price target. Cites strong balance sheet.
Northern Star Resources Ltd NST Morgan Stanley retains equalweight rating on Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST). Retains $12.20 price target. Downgrades forecasts on below expectation production.
Northern Star Resources Ltd NST UBS raises Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) price target from $13.20 to $14.25. Retains sell rating. Cites lower grades at Kalgoorlie, lower than expected productivity at Pogo, and costs pressures.
Origin Energy Limited ORG Credit Suisse raises Origin Energy Limited (ORG) price target from $5.30 to $6.20. Retains neutral rating. Cites recovery in oil prices.
Rio Tinto Limited RIO RBC Capital Markets upgrades Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) rating from underperform to sector perform. Raises price target from $77 to $90. Cites positive macro tailwinds and sector valuation dynamics, combined with an attractive 2020 dividend yield.
Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited SAR Macquarie downgrades Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (SAR) rating from outperform to neutral. Retains $5.40 price target. Cites share price strength.
Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited SAR Morgan Stanley retains equalweight rating on Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (SAR). Retains $4.70 price target. Notes SAR's guidance was worse than expected.
Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited SAR UBS downgrades Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (SAR) rating from buy to neutral. Raises price target from $5.60 to $6.30. Cites production guidance was below expectations.
Sonic Healthcare Limited SHL Citi raises Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL) price target from $28.90 to $33.   
Sonic Healthcare Limited SHL Morgan Stanley raises Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL) price target from $28.90 to 33. Retains overweight rating. Cites likely contribution to earnings from high margin covid-19 testing.
 



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