ThinkAhead - Focus on Labour Market and OPEC+ Meeting...

Markets around the world will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday, resulting in a shortened trading week. Despite this, there will be plenty of news on the labour market and economic data from the US. On Monday, OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to discuss the possibility of further oil supply cuts. On Tuesday, the Labor Department in the US will release the February JOLTS report, which is expected to show a slight fall in job openings. On Wednesday, ADP will issue the National Employment Report for March, and economists project that private businesses added 200,000 positions. Additionally, on Friday, the US non-farm payrolls report will be released, and it is expected to show the addition of 240,000 jobs in March, compared to the previous month’s gain of 311,000. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%.

Apart from labour market data, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will also offer the latest insights into the manufacturing and service sectors' strength in the US. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is projected to have fallen to 47.1 in March, indicating a contraction in output. ISM will also release its Non-Manufacturing PMI, tracking the US services sector, on Wednesday, while S&P Global will release its Composite PMI for March.

Oil prices surged on Monday after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers announced a surprise round of output cuts, potentially indicating global inflation issues just days after a slowdown in US price data. Brent oil futures jumped $4.30 to $84.19 a barrel, while US crude climbed $4.17 to $79.84.

The reaction to Friday's job report will likely be muted due to the Easter holidays. Still, it may affect the outlook for US rates, as markets are already pushing up the probability of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by a quarter point in May. In addition, central banks in Australia and New Zealand are holding policy meetings this week, with the latter expected to hike by another quarter point to 5.0%.

Economic Calendar Highlights:

Monday 3^rd of April:

• China - Caixin Manufacturing PMI  (MAR)
• US - ISM Manufacturing PMI (MAR)
• South Africa - ABSA Manufacturing PMI (MAR)
• South Africa - New Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Tuesday 4^th of April:

• Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision
• Germany - Balance of Trade (FEB)
• US – Job Openings (FEB)

Wednesday 5^th of April:

• Canada - Balance of Trade (FEB)
• US - Balance of Trade (FEB)
• US - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (MAR)
• South Africa - S&P Global PMI (MAR)

Thursday 6^th of April:

• Australia - Balance of Trade (FEB)
• Canada - Unemployment Rate (MAR)

Friday 7^th of April:

• US - Unemployment Rate (MAR)
• US - Non-Farm Payrolls (MAR)