ThinkAhead - Volatile Markets Ahead...

Global markets are set to experience an eventful week ahead, with several key economic and geopolitical events likely to influence investor sentiment. Here's a look at some of the major events to watch out for:

Consumer inflation: Several economies are expected to release their consumer inflation numbers this week, with most economies expecting annual inflation to have moderated slightly. In South Africa, annual consumer inflation for February is expected to have moderated slightly to 6.8%, down from 6.9% the month prior, according to consensus estimates on Bloomberg. Transport costs and food price inflation are key inputs to monitor.

Interest rate decisions: The central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are all expected to announce their March interest rate levels. The market is predicting a 0.25 percentage point rise from the US Federal Reserve, but the meeting is relatively uncertain compared to recent years. The inflation picture has deteriorated, but the banking crisis is expected to dominate. The crisis has added complexity to the Fed's analysis, preventing it from dealing with inflation in isolation. If a hike does come this week, it could be the last, as recession fears may force the Fed to cut rates. The recent banking crisis has complicated the picture further, with market confidence remaining low. The Fed's provision of liquidity has offset some of its recent work in shrinking its balance sheet. Holding rates steady would be welcomed by markets, but it raises questions about the additional banking data the Fed is seeing. Looser policy may signal that the risks to the banking sector are not over.

Banking crisis: The recent banking turmoil has caused widespread fallout, including surprising bank runs and collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. This has resulted in a shaken global banking system. While there may be more volatility in the week ahead, it is not a repeat of the global financial crisis from 15 years ago. Deposits for everyday customers are guaranteed and regulators worldwide affirm the health of the banking system. During the past week, two more banks, Credit Suisse and First Republic, experienced instability. Credit Suisse, a beleaguered megabank, was taken over by UBS on Sunday after announcing it would accept up to $53.7 billion in support from the Swiss central bank to remain afloat. On Thursday, First Republic bank received a $30 billion lifeline from some of the largest banks in the United States.

Overall, the week ahead promises to be a busy one for global markets, with several major events likely to impact investor sentiment. Traders and investors will need to stay informed and agile in order to navigate the potential opportunities and risks.

Economic calendar:

Monday 20^th of March:

• Euro Area – Balance of Trade (JAN)
• Germany – Producer Inflation (FEB)

Tuesday 21^st of March:

• AUS – RBA Meeting Minutes
• Canada – Inflation Rate (FEB)

Wednesday 22^nd of March:

• UK – Consumer inflation (FEB)
• SA - Consumer inflation (FEB)
• US - Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thursday 23^rd of March:

• UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision

Friday 24^th of March:

• Japan – Inflation rate (FEB)
• UK – Consumer confidence (MAR)
• UK – Retail sales (FEB)