*US Thanksgiving to lower liquidity conditions and exacerbate moves
*Opportunities ahead in Antipodeans with busy data week set to drive higher volatility
*Bitcoin breaks Q4 support and points beyond trend support
Markets are likely to gauge lower liquidity conditions through the week as a result of Thursday's US Thanksgiving holiday. The potential for exacerbated moves then when you mix that in with
lingering US-China trade risk, political developments and some key data releases, is therefore, something we expect given less is needed to do more.
Key calendar highlights
AEDT |
Event |
Instrument |
Impact |
Comment |
Mon
8pm 25/11 |
Germany IFO Bus. Climate Survey |
EUR |
Med |
Est. 95; prior 94.6. Look to see how it builds on Friday's PMIs. |
Tue
8.45am
26/11 |
NZ Retail Sales Q3 |
NZD |
Med |
Est. 0.5%; prior 0.2%. Set to improve in line with RBNZ comments. |
Tue
8.05pm
26/11 |
RBA Gov. Lowe speech |
AUD |
High |
The title of his talk is about unconventional monetary policy tools. Endorsement here drives short AUD. |
Wed
2am
27/11 |
US Nov. CB Consumer Confidence |
USD |
Med |
Est. 127; prior 125.9. Should help drive USD outperformance. |
Wed
9am
27/11 |
RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks |
NZD |
Low |
Due to speak on the RBNZ Financial Stability Report. With no meeting till Feb, see this as low risk. |
Wed
11.30am
27/11 |
AUS Construction Work Done q/q |
AUD |
Med |
Est -1%; prior -3.8%. More clues about where Aussie housing is at. |
Thu
11am
28/11 |
NZ Oct. Business Confidence |
NZD |
Low |
Prior -42.4. Focus will be on whether this continues trend of improvement. |
Thu
11.30am
28/11 |
AUS Q3 Capex |
AUD |
Med |
Est. -0.1%; prior -0.5%. AUD at risk here. |
Sat
12.30am
30/11 |
CAD Sep. GDP m/m |
CAD |
High |
Est. 0.1%; prior 0.1%. Likely to show resilience of domestic economy. |
Sat
12pm
30/11 |
China Mfg PMI |
CNH |
High |
Est. 49.5; prior 49.3. Expect volatility on a surprise. |
Bitcoin in focus
In our
ASIA MORNING: Lacking Conviction, we raised the case that Bitcoin BTC was near a key support level and could push lower towards multi-month trend support. That thesis is playing out faster than we thought with
BTC heavily sold in the last few days. Should the 50d-MA cross down over the 200d-MA and price action meaningfully break May 2019 lows, there could be a further case to be made for
BTC to continue falling into US$5,000. However, a bounce back into the downward trend channel and 200d-MA also has legs.
Source: ThinkMarkets
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