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Could GameStop hurt the bull run?

Carl Capolingua Carl Capolingua 02/02/2021
Could GameStop hurt the bull run? Could GameStop hurt the bull run?
Could GameStop hurt the bull run? Carl Capolingua

(Source: AusbizTV February 3, 2021. "The Trade: 3 February 2021". Full video available from: https://www.ausbiz.com.au/media/the-trade-3-february-2021-?videoId=6906)

Unless you've been hiding under a rock for the last week or so, you've probably already heard plenty about this company and why its share price exploded. Let's investigate what's made GameStop such a big deal over the last few days, and just how much an impact it has had, and could continue to have, on global markets.

It all starts with short selling...
A short seller is an investor who first borrows, then sells a stock with a commitment to return it to the stock lender when required, or when they have completed their trade. If the price of the stock falls, the short seller can repurchase the stock at a price less than what they sold it at, and the difference is their profit. Naturally, the most a short seller can make on a short trade is the price they sold the stock for - and this would only occur if the stock's price went to zero. This is pretty unlikely, but many stocks have come close, or were suspended and then subsequently de-listed after running into severe financial difficulties. For the most part though, the short seller's goal is to profit from both rising and falling stocks.

Many hedge funds (the term 'hedge' implies a bet each way as a form of insurance) regularly go both long (i.e., hoping to profit from a rise in a stock's price) and short. For most, shorting is essential to manage their long-side risk which is often substantially greater than any short-side risk they may incidentally acquire.

GameStop has been underperforming with respect to its financial performance for some time now. In January 2017, it had 7,535 stores. By October 2020, this was down to about 5,000 stores. Despite the efforts to close stores, shed employees, and cut expenses, the company is on track to generate a net loss for the third year in a row. This made it a natural target for short sellers who assumed that GameStop's stock price would logically continue to fall as a result.

The trade was so popular, that at one stage, more than the entire float of the company's shares were borrowed and shorted. Now, that might sound both ridiculous and impossible - because how can more than all of the company's shares be borrowed, but it is exactly what happened (we'll leave the discussion of why to another blog post!).

In August 2020, a small group of traders on the Reddit WallStBets thread who were already bullish on GameStop got wind of this fact, and they began circulating the idea that the stock was ripe for a short squeeze. A short squeeze is where the price moves up to put short trades in a loss, potentially causing short sellers to close these trades by buying back stock. This buying further pushes up the price, which can induce even more short sellers to cover back. The move can gain significant momentum very quickly, especially when it's being juiced by a frenzied mob of millennials punting their stimulus checks! Around September last year, the share price began rising.

2021-02-02_GME_GameStop_Chart_Daily

By mid-January, the idea, and the purchasing of GameStop's shares was beginning to go viral. The squeeze was well and truly afoot. The stock had risen from around $4 per share at the time of the first posts in August, to just over $20 per share. Then on January 13, one of the main proponents of the trade stoked the fire by showing his holdings of GameStop, and noting he was still all-in. The masses dutifully followed, and the stock almost doubled in that session alone, before closing up over 50%.

This got the attention of an even wider crowd, but more importantly, the fund managers who were short! The next few trading sessions saw the GameStop price grind steadily higher as more and more Redditers jumped on and the hedge funds scrambled to cover. By January 22, and for the next five trading sessions, GameStop shares exploded! The price of one share of GameStop topped out at $483 per share on January 29 - an increase of over 10,000% since the start of its run back in August.
 
He who sells what isn't his'n...
The losses at some hedge funds who were short GameStop were severe. Many estimates are around for around US$20 billion in short selling losses. One fund reported losing 47% of its capital on their GameStop short, and others had to raise emergency capital to cover their losses. You might say, "Serves them right!" But when you look at the price action of GameStop compared to other major stock markets around the world, one cannot deny that they moved in the exact opposite directions for that crazy period between January 22 and January 29.

During this period, GameStop increased by as much as 1000%, whilst the NASDAQ Index fell by as much as 5.4%. Other markets around the world that were considered as high growth bets for 2021, like the Shanghai Composite and KOSPI 200 in South Korea, tumbled 5.2% and 8.5% respectively. Even our own ASX200 fell as much as 4.6%. Also very interestingly, the US Volatility Index, or VIX, spiked as much as 76%, its biggest move up since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic.

2021-02-02_NASDAQ_vs_GameStop_Chart
The long and short of it...
It is impossible to say with complete certainty that the GameStop short squeeze was solely responsible for the broader global market sell-off. But in a week where there was very little for markets to fret about, there isn't much else to point the finger of blame at. Put simply, hedge funds control the hot money sloshing around the world. They love to be on the long-side of growth assets, but to manage this risk, they must also make short bets on other assets. Like GameStop. If they're getting hammered on their shorts, they may attempt to cover these losses by liquidating long positions elsewhere. Further, even if your hedge fund didn't have an exposure to GameStop, if more broadly speaking its shenanigans makes you more risk-averse to short trades in general - you may have to dial back on your long-side risk to compensate. And this means selling - or just as bad - not buying.

The question is whether the selling we saw hit global markets between January 22 and January 29 has finished, or whether the GameStop fiasco has permanently dented hedge funds' appetite to use short selling to mitigate their long-side risk. If we are to believe some media commentators who predict the GameStop incident is just the beginning of a more protracted battle between Main St. investors and Wall St., then future massive short squeezes may have significant negative effects on the broader market.

Also read: How to use technical analysis to spot bubbles: GameStop
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
×
Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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