There may be more weakness on the cards for the dollar index, today's number will set the tone for the month.
Today is the day when we will see the most important set of economic data. The US NFP is the most significant economic number for traders and they are likely to dissect this number into smaller pieces in order to better appreciate the health of the labour market. The dollar index is set for a weekly drop ahead of this critical report. YTD it is up by 0.9 percent.
The weekly drop in the dollar price is mainly due to some qualms that hiring may have eased off over in the U.S. But, we do think there may be more weakness on the cards for the dollar from here and the greenback may start to consolidate around its current level (trading range between 94-97). Year-to-date the dollar index performance is far stronger than any other equity market in the developed countries.
The ADP data usually sets the tone for the US NFP number and it confirmed that the private payrolls number rose 271K last month beating the forecast of 179K. The ISM manufacturing PMI released earlier this month painted a less optimistic picture as it missed the forecast (actual 54.1 vs forecast 57.1).
Clearly, there is an influence of the ongoing trade war between the US and China which has damped the outlook. These trade talks are expected to resume on Monday and perhaps there could be some resolution which can reduce the pain of the current bite.
If we see an improvement in the average hourly number, traders are likely to push the dollar index higher. The forecast for the average hourly number is 0.3% while the previous number came in at 0.2%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain as the same time which is 3.7%.
EU withdrawal deadline is coming soon for Brexit and the house prices have been the biggest victim of this chaos. During the month of December, the UK’s house prices experienced sharp decline again and investors are sceptical if they should park their money in brick and mortar, an asset class which is considered as the most place to park your money.
All eyes are on the upcoming parliamentary vote which is taking place on the 14th January and it is widely expected that Theresa May may not have enough support. That could trigger a general election and the volatility for Sterling would spike. During the last 28- 48 hours, sterling has been a winner in term especially when we have seen the Japanese yen, Aussie and Turkish lira going wonky.