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Week Ahead Preview 14th of November

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 14/11/2022
Week Ahead Preview 14th of November Week Ahead Preview 14th of November
Week Ahead Preview 14th of November Mahmoud Alkudsi
Investors’ attention will shift to the UK this week, as markets brace for the first fiscal statement of Mr. Sunak’s government. It is still unclear how the budget deficit would be reduced, although, we know that Chancellor of Exchequer Mr. Hunt pledged to reverse almost all tax measures announced in the old mini-budget and hinted at hiking inheritance tax and spending cuts. The UK economy already suffers a double-digit inflation rate mainly caused by the previous monetary and fiscal policies. Therefore, this budget will directly influence the Bank of England’s upcoming decisions as more spending cuts will be massively helpful in reducing inflation levels and as a result would decrease the need for big interest rate hikes.  
 
On the other side of the pond, the US inflation numbers of October released last week provided a big relief to the market as the CPI headline dropped from 8.2% in September to 7.7%in October, while the core CPI fell from 6.6% (Sep) to 6.3% (Oct). This data increased the odds that the Fed would slow down its rate hiking pace and move towards increasing only 50bp in December instead of 75bp, and hike the rate between 25-50bp in (Q1-23) instead of 50-75 bp. Moreover, the October Consumer Price Index reads opened the door for expectations that the US central bank could reverse its current policy in the second half of 2023.
 
The downside surprise in the CPI numbers triggered a US Dollar selloff, the dollar index fell by over 4% and then closed in the red on Friday, while most US major indices and bonds rallied and closed in the green. Commodities such as gold and silver also edged higher due to the US dollar weakness and rallied between 4% and 5%, while the oil price ended the week in the red due to prospects of lower demand from China caused by maintaining the zero covid policy. 
 
   
Economic data highlights 
 
Monday 14th of November 
 
  • CHF- Producers Price Index (OCT)
  • EUR- Industrial Production (SEP)
  • OPEC Monthly Report
  • BOC Gov Macklem’s speech
  • SNB Chairman Jordan’s speech
 
Tuesday 15th of November 
 
  • JPY- GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
  • Fed Williams speech
  • RBA Meeting Minutes
  • CNY- Industrial Production (OCT)
  • CNY- Retail Sales (OCT)
  • GBP- Unemployment Rate (SEP)
  • EUR- GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
  • EUR- ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (NOV)
  • USD- PPI MoM (OCT)
 
Wednesday 16th of November  
 
  • CNY- House Price Index (OCT)
  • GBP- Inflation Rate (OCT)
  • CAD- Inflation Rate (OCT)
  • USD- Retail Sales (OCT)
  • US Crude Oil Inventories
  • USD- Industrial Production (OCT)
  • ZAR- Retail Sales (SEP)
 
Thursday 17th of November 
 
  • AUD- Unemployment Rate (OCT)
  • UK Fiscal Statement
  • EUR- Inflation Rate Final (OCT)
  • USD- Building Permit (OCT)
  • Fed Member Bullard’s speech
  • Fed Member Bowman’s speech
  • Fed Member Mester’s speech
 
Friday 18th of November  
 
  • JPY- Inflation Rate (OCT)
  • GBP- Retail Sales (OCT)
  • ECB President Lagarde’s speech
  • CHF- Industrial Production (Q3)
  • USD- CB Leading Index MoM (OCT)
 
 
Inflation Rates
 
 
The UK inflation headline rate is unlikely to fall given the rise in the oil prices in October (nearly by 7%) therefore, markets expect to see an increase in the Consumer Price Index from 10.1% in September to 10.6% in October.
 
The Canadian inflation read may follow its UK counterpart’s steps and rise from 6% to 6.3%. Nonetheless, any higher-than-expected data could increase pressures on the Bank of Canada to tighten its policy further, especially after the surprising rate hike delivered in its last meeting (50bp instead of 75bp).
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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