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Week Ahead Preview 31st of October

Mahmoud Alkudsi Mahmoud Alkudsi 31/10/2022
Week Ahead Preview 31st of October Week Ahead Preview 31st of October
Week Ahead Preview 31st of October Mahmoud Alkudsi
A busy week ahead for investors with highly important data releases to digest and major central banks meetings to follow. The Fed is highly likely to hike rates by 75BP and traders would listen to the Fed’s chairman’s press conference this week for any hints of a change in policy by next year. The bank of England on the other hand could be on the way to hiking rates by 75 bp. Nonetheless, it is important to note that markets await the government budget announcement on November 17 as it will have an important effect on the upcoming central bank’s monetary policy.  
 
Major US indices rallied and closed in the green last week despite disappointing reports from some companies like Amazon and weak results and outlooks from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta;, investors hoped that the Fed could lower its rate hike speed from the December meeting. On the other hand, the image did not look that bright for the gold price which closed in the red on Friday as the US dollar rebounded higher on better-than-expected GDP data. The Brent oil steadied above $90pb on a better demand outlook from China.   
 
Chicago wheat futures climbed by 6% at the start of this week on Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea export agreement, worrying the market over global supplies. The Russian administration suspended its participation in the agreement following a Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Crimea. 
 
   
Economic data highlights 
 
Monday 31st of October 
 
  • CHF- Retail Sales (SEP)
  • EUR- Core Inflation Rate Flash (OCT)
  • EUR- GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3)
  • ZAR- Private Sector Credit (SEP)
  • ZAR- Balance of Trade (SEP)
 
 
Tuesday 1st of November 
  • AUD- Manufacturing PMI Final (OCT)
  • RBA Interest Rate Decision
  • CHF- Manufacturing PMI Final (OCT)
  • GBP- Manufacturing PMI Final (OCT)
  • CAD- Manufacturing PMI (OCT)
  • USD- ISM Manufacturing PMI (OCT)  
  • ZAR- ABSA Manufacturing PMI (OCT)
  • ZAR- Total New Vehicle Sales (OCT)
 
 
Wednesday 2nd of November  
  • NZD- Unemployment Rate (Q3)
  • EUR- Unemployment Rate (Germany- OCT)
  • EUR- Manufacturing PMII Final (OCT)
  • USD- ADP Employment Change (OCT)
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference
  •  
Thursday 3rd of November 
  • AUD- Global Services PMI Final (OCT)
  • CHF- Inflation Rate (OCT)  
  • GBP- Services PMI Final (OCT) 
  • EUR- Unemployment Rate (SEP)
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision
  • USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (OCT)
 
Friday 4th of November  
  • EUR- Services PMI Final (OCT)
  • CAD- Unemployment Rate (OCT)
  • USD- Non-Farm Payrolls 
  • USD- Unemployment rate (OCT)
 
 The FED Meeting   
 
 
The FOMC could press toward its fourth 75bp rate hike this year given that annual rates of core inflation are shooting higher on one hand, and a strong labor market with more vacancies than the unemployed workforce on the other. The Fed Chairman could renew the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation levels down to the 2% target and that any rate hike would be data-dependent (mainly NFP and inflation numbers).
 
Markets expect that the US economy has added in October 200K jobs and that unemployment rates increased from 3.5% in September to 3.6% in October. Therefore, any lower-than-expected unemployment rates could embolden the Fed to keep pushing the US interest rates higher. Investors also will monitor the average hourly earnings rate as any higher-than-expected number means more income for individuals, and more spending leads to higher inflation.
 
 
Other Central Banks
 
The higher-than-expected inflation rates of Q3 released last week at 7.3 could lead the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to go back to its previous rate hike policy and rise interest rates by 50bp, this would come after a rate hike of 25pb at the last meeting in October. 
 
The Bank of England could push the UK interest rates to the vicinity of 3% to control soaring inflation levels, currently at 10.1%, and to send a message to investors of its firm commitment to bringing inflation levels back to the 2% target. However, Rishi Sunak’s government’s fiscal policy which is due to be announced on November 17 will be key to helping the central bank to fulfill this purpose. 
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Meet our contributors
Carl Capolingua
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Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Lesego
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Lesego Mthombothi
Market Research Analyst, South Africa

Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
 
 
 

Mahmoud Alkudsi
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Mahmoud Alkudsi
Chief Markets Analyst, MENA

Mahmoud is a market analyst, with over a decade of experience in financial markets. He follows main market movers and tracks their effect on the price chart. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and with his wide experience in providing educational and guidance materials to all levels of traders, he helps them in making informed trading decisions. Before joining ThinkMarkets, Mahmoud was head of market research departments in different reputed financial companies, where he provided market analysis for a variety of asset classes, including FX, equities, indices, and commodity futures. As an experienced market commentator, he was hosted by too many print and broadcast media, including not limited to Sky News Arabia, France 24, Alarabyia, Alsharq-Bloomberg, and CNBC Alarabyia to discuss key risk events their clear impact on the price action. Mahmoud holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Cardiff Metropolitan University of Wales, UK, and speaks Arabic, English, and Spanish.

Shawn
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Shawn Lee
Market Analyst, Malaysia

Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.

Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Lesego
Lesego Mthombothi
Lesego Mthombothi is an experienced market research analyst and investment professional who proudly holds an honours degree in investment management and completed her CFA level 1.
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud Alkudsi
Mahmoud is a market analyst with over a decade of experience in financial markets. Mahmoud mixes technical and fundamental tools with a deeper focus on the technical side, and has experience in providing guidance to all levels of traders.
Shawn
Shawn Lee
Shawn Lee has over eight years of experience in the financial market as a market analyst. Shawn provides market key insights and trade ideas through the market and technical analysis. He also held trader roles and guided traders in maximising one’s trading success.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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