Learn To Trade
 
Indicators & Chart Patterns

Deepen your knowledge of technical analysis indicators and hone your skills as a trader.

Find your detailed guides here
Trading Glossary

From beginners to experts, all traders need to know a wide range of technical terms. Let us be your guide.

Learn more
Knowledge Base

No matter your experience level, download our free trading guides and develop your skills.

Learn more
Learn To Trade

Trade smarter: boost your skills with our training resources.

Create a live account
Market Analysis
 
Market News

All the latest market news, with regular insights and analysis from our in-house experts

Learn more
Economic Calendar

Make sure you are ahead of every market move with our constantly updated economic calendar.

Learn more
Technical Analysis

Harness past market data to forecast price direction and anticipate market moves.

Learn more
Live Webinars

Boost your knowledge with our live, interactive webinars delivered by industry experts.

Register now
Special Reports

Engaging, in-depth macroeconomic analysis and expert educational content from our in-house analysts

Learn more
Market Analysis

Harness the market intelligence you need to build your trading strategies.

Create a live account
Partnership
 
Affiliate Programme

Grow your business and get rewarded. Find out more about our Affiliate Programme today.

Learn more
Money Manager

Increase your income and get compensated for your trading knowledge with ThinkInvest, putting you in control.

Learn more
API Trading

Create your own trading platform or data tools with our cutting-edge APIs.

Learn more
Introducing Broker

ThinkMarkets ensures high levels of client satisfaction with high client retention and conversion rates.

Learn more
White Label

We supply everything you need to create your own brand in the Forex industry.

Learn more
Regional Representatives

Partner with ThinkMarkets today to access full consulting services, promotional materials and your own budgets.

Learn more
Partnership

Plug into the next-gen platforms and the trades your clients want.

Create a live account
About ThinkMarkets
 
Liverpool FC Sponsorship

ThinkMarkets is the Official Global Trading Partner of Liverpool FC

Learn more
About Us

Find out more about ThinkMarkets, an established, multi-award winning global broker you can trust.

Learn more
Careers

Discover a range of rewarding career possibilities across the globe

Apply now
Security of Funds

Security of your funds is our number one priority. Find out more about our insurance policy with Lloyd's of London.

Learn more
Trading Infrastructure

When it comes to the speed we execute your trades, no expense is spared. Find out more.

Learn more
ThinkMarkets News

Keep up to date with our latest company news and announcements.

Learn more
Contact Us

Our multilingual support team is here for you 24/7.

Learn more
About ThinkMarkets

Global presence, local expertise - find out what sets us apart.

Create a live account
Create account

NFP Preview

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 03/09/2021
NFP Preview NFP Preview
NFP Preview Fawad Razaqzada
It is that time of the month again!

The first Friday of the new month means the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report today. With Jerome Powell and several other Fed officials more or less confirming that tapering QE could start before the end of the year, investors are speculating that the US central bank may announce the timeline of the process at the FOMC’s November meeting. Until then, the Fed will have three more jobs reports to consider before publishing its plans. As such, today’s jobs report will be scrutinised very closely by the markets, and we may very well see some big moves in reaction to the data.

Now the market has had enough time to digest the Fed’s slow build up to the eventual reduction of QE. This means that tapering QE is no longer going to surprise the market, at least not in a meaningful way anyway. The Fed has also been very clear that interest rates will not necessarily rise immediately after tapering is completed.

What the markets will want to know next is not necessarily when tapering QE would commence but how fast it will be. This will be influenced directly by incoming macro data from the world’s largest economy, as well as inflation indication from around the world, such as any sharp changes in crude and gas prices, or container shipping rates etc.
 
NFP expectations
 
  • Economists are expecting a headline NFP print of 750K for August, which would represent a sizeable decrease from 900K+ readings in the previous two months.
  • Unemployment rate is expected to have declined to 5.2% from 5.4% previously.
  • Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, after climbing 0.4% the month before.
NFP leading indicators
 
This week’s leading indicators for NFP have been mostly weaker, although the key ISM services PMI employment component will not be published until after the jobs report is out. This makes it even harder to predict the payrolls figure for this month.
 
  • ADP 374K vs. 640K expected and 326K last
  • ISM manufacturing PMI Employment:  49.0 vs. 52.9 last (-3.9)
  • Jobless claims: the 4-week average of initial claims dropped to 355K from 394K last
 
Overall, the indicators point to weakness in employment, and so we could see a disappointment this time around. Indeed, BMO Capital Markets are not very optimistic at all on the jobs report. According to their economists: "Anecdotes for the August jobs numbers are troubling with eight negative proxies and three positive ones." If they are correct, we could see the dollar slump.
 
NFP trade ideas
 
So, if the data turns out to be very weak, then investors will probably sell the dollar hard against the likes of the euro, which has benefited from surprising strength in Eurozone data of late. Gold and silver also come to mind.

If NFP and wages data come in around expectations, then don’t expect too much movements in the markets.

However, if Friday’s employment report comes in hotter than expected, then this will further cement tapering expectations and may lead to a mild bounce for the dollar. We would favour looking for long USD/JPY trades in this scenario.
 
 
NFP webinar
 
Join us for a 30-minute webinar before the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll report. We will review some of the pre-NFP leading indicators to determine an estimate for headline jobs number and discuss how US dollar, gold and indices might react depending on the outcome of the jobs and wages data. We will also highlight key levels to watch and provide actionable trade ideas ahead of the NFP report. Click HERE to register.
 
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Related articles:

Risk on continues as markets ignore risks

By Fawad Razaqzada

14/10/2021

Markets face testing day

By Fawad Razaqzada

13/10/2021

EM currency crisis pose additional risk to eq...

By Fawad Razaqzada

12/10/2021

Week Ahead: October 11, 2021

By Fawad Razaqzada

11/10/2021

NFP Preview: October 8, 2021

By Fawad Razaqzada

08/10/2021

Meet our contributors
Fawad Razaqzada
×
Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst, London

Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms. He leverages years of market knowledge to provide retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis. Fawad also offers trading education to help shorten the learning curves of developing traders.
 
His colleagues consider him an expert at reading price action on the charts. This together with his deep understanding of economics and fundamental analysis, and trading experience, puts him in a great position to forecast short term price movements. Fawad covers a wide range of markets, including FX, commodities, stock indices and cryptocurrencies and his comments are regularly quoted by the leading financial publications such as Reuters and Market Watch. In addition to ThinkMarkets, Fawad also provides analysis and premium trade signals on his own website at TradingCandles.com.
 
 

Carl Capolingua
×
Carl Capolingua
Market Analyst, Melbourne

Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions. Specialising in Australian and US stock markets in particular, Carl uses a top-down approach to assess the global macro picture before using both technical and fundamental techniques to select stocks. He regularly appears as an expert commentator on a number of media outlets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
 
 
 

Kearabilwe
×
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Market Analyst, South Africa

Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives. His career in the financial markets has seen him hold various positions in global investment banks and global CFD and Spread betting firms. He has deep interest in using quantitative methods to help him understand and teach the fundamental drivers of asset prices.
 
 
 

Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad Razaqzada
Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010, producing market commentary and research for a number of global FX, CFD and Spread Betting brokerage firms.
Carl Capolingua
Carl Capolingua
Carl has over 20 years' experience in financial markets and has held senior analyst roles at a number of financial institutions.
Kearabilwe
Kearabilwe Nonyana
Kearabilwe is an experienced Sales trader and Analyst specialising in Equity and Equity derivatives.

Feel confident?

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Back to top